Karpuc’s Favorite NBA Bet For Monday's Slate
Season Record: 25-14 (64.1%); Pick For Monday, February 14
Dan Karpuc - Feb 14, 2022, 4:06pm ESTThe Pick: Bucks -11.5 vs. Blazers
The Bucks will likely start Jrue Holiday, Grayson Allen, Khris Middleton, Giannis Antetokounmpo and Bobby Portis while the Blazers will likely start Anfernee Simons, Jusuf Nurkic, Josh Hart, Justise Winslow and CJ Elleby. In other words, Milwaukee has a massive edge on paper.
The Bucks beat Portland 137-108 in Portland back on February 5th, have covered the spread in four of their last five contests and have gone 7-2 ATS in their last nine games as a double-digit favorite. Meanwhile, the Blazers have gone 2-6 ATS in their last eight games, 8-17 ATS on the road and 10-19 ATS as an underdog.
In their last five games, the Bucks had the best Offensive Rating in the NBA (124.6) while the Blazers ranked 27th in that span. Further, Milwaukee had the 3rd-best True Shooting Percentage in that five-game set (62.2%) while Portland ranked 26th (52.5%).
Something that jumped out when analyzing these two teams was exactly how the Blazers tend to give up points.
Over the last 10 contests, Portland has allowed just 40.2 points in the paint per contest, the lowest mark in the entire NBA in that span. Therefore, this Blazers defense funnels their opponents to the perimeter, which just so happens to be one of Milwaukee's greatest strengths as a team, which is highlighted by the fact that the Bucks have scored just 46.0 points in the paint on average in that 10-game stretch (22nd in the league).
A whopping 37.9% of the Bucks' scoring comes from three-point land (4th-most in the NBA) and Portland has hemorrhaged deep balls in their last five games, allowing 17.2 converted threes per game (worst in NBA). The Bucks have made 39.5% of their three-pointers as a team over their last five games (3rd in NBA) and have averaged 15.8 made threes per contest (2nd).
With that being said, I like the Bucks to get off to a big early lead and take care of business with a blowout on their home court. Heck, they might even make 20 threes in the process!
