NFL Best Bets for Today
BetQL's NFL Week 12 Point Spread Analysis:
Betting on NFL games and being successful can be difficult and it all starts with understanding how to play the NFL spreads. A point or two difference on the line can be the difference between a win or loss. Here you will find our analysis of our favorite NFL point spreads for the week. Although the sportsbooks are good at setting NFL lines they aren't perfect so each and every week of the NFL season you will see our NFL spreads analysis where you will find out how we feel about each spread and identify where we can take advantage.
Houston Texans vs. Detroit Lions
Point Spread: Texans (-3)
Odds: Texans (-160), Lions (+135)
Thanksgiving football gets kicked off with the Houston Texans traveling to Detroit to take on the Lions in our first of three Thanksgiving day games. Currently the road Texans are the favorite in this game with the point spread sitting at (-3) which makes a good amount of sense. Last week the Texans were able to handle the New England Patriots at home while the Lions struggled mightily against the Carolina Panthers. The Lions were shut out last week so it would be nearly impossible not to see them as a home dog is this game. The Texans on the other hand are starting to put the pieces together after a very tough start to their season. Our best bet model actually would have placed the point spread a little bit more towards the Lions here at Texans (-1.5), but after the Lions' showing last week it is very difficult to stand by that. Our gut says the +/-3 is just about right for this game and we think the oddsmakers got it right on this game.
New York Giants vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Point Spread: Giants (-5.5)
Odds: Giants (-225), Bengals (+205)
One of the more interesting games this week is the Giants vs Bengals and not because it will be a good game, but because the Bengals are without the #1 overall pick Joe Burrow for the rest of the season. This means Ryan Finley will be under center for Cincinnati for the rest of the year, which is how the Bengals got the #1 overall pick in the first place. The point spread in this game currently sits at +/-5.5 with the Giants as the favorite. That is correct, the New York Football Giants are the road favorite in an NFL game in the year 2020. This will be the first time the Giants are the road favorite this season, which is why we are interested in this game. The Giants have looked much better halfway through the year, but they won't be in the Superbowl anytime soon, so do the Giants have what it takes to win this football game by at least 6 points? The Bengals will be in a tough spot without their starting QB but will the rest of their team be able to cover the spread in this game? We have a feeling, no, but our best bet model actually believes the Bengals a bit more than we do. Our NFL best bet model would have placed the point spread in this game at Bengals (+3.5), which is a bit hard to believe but could make some sense. The Giants are exactly blowing teams out this season, especially on the road. We have a feeling the spread in this game will continue to climb so if you like the Giants here grab this before it gets too high.
Seattle Seahawks vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Point Spread: Seahawks (-5)
Odds: Seahawks (-250), Eagles (+250)
We are treated to a fun game for Monday Night football with two teams that are underperforming and looking to turn their season around. The Seattle Seahawks will be traveling to the Philadelphia to take on the Eagles for MNF, the point spread currently sits at +/-5 with the Seahawks listed as the road favorite. The point spread in this game is a bit head scratching because the Eagles have looked terrible in their last two games dropping them to the Giants & Browns, scoring only 17 points in both games. Seattle has one of the worst defenses in the league, but the Eagles have shown they are going to struggle to score on anyone this season. The Eagles have also been lackluster defending homefield advantage this season with a 2-3 record both straight up and ATS in Philadelphia. The Seahawks may be 7-3 on the year but they have looked vulnerable in the past few weeks, especially on defense. Last week they turned it around on Thursday night against the Cardinals and they will look to keep the offense alive against the Eagles. We think the spread sitting at +/-5 for in favor of the Seahawks is just too low and if we were going to set the point spread for this game we would have placed it closer to Seahawks (-6.5)
BetQL's Free Best Bet of the Week:
Every week we will unlock one of our NFL best bets so not only will you get free picks, but you can also see exactly how BetQL works. You will get the subscriber experience for one game a week where you can see all the data we have on that game for every single bet type. Here we will take a closer look at the spread for our free game and break down where our model would have placed that line. If you want to see more data about the public, pros, or over under you can go take a look at those pages. All data for our free best bet of the week is unlocked and free to everyone.
Cleveland Browns vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Point Spread: Browns (-6.5)
Odds: Browns (-280), Jaguars (+230)
Our free game for the week feature the Cleveland Browns traveling to Jacksonville to take on the Jaguars at 1pm on Sunday. The point spread in this game currently sits at +/- 6.5 with the Browns listed as the heavy favorite. Our NFL best bet model actually would have placed the point spread at +/-5.5 and recommend taking the Jaguars in this game, but our gut is telling us otherwise.
The Browns enter this game with a 7-3 record straight up and a 4-5 record against the spread. Last week the Browns were able to secure a nice win against the Philadelphia Eagles with a score of 22-17. In that game against the Eagles the Browns were able to keep the game close and then force Carson Wentz to make mistakes which lead to turnovers and points. The Browns defense will look to stay hot like they have been in the past three weeks where they have only given up a combined 40 points. Cleveland will be a road favorite for the second time this season, the last time they were in this spot was a division game against the Bengals where they missed covering the spread by 1.5 points. Divisional games are always close so you may be able to look past that if you are hoping to bet the Browns.
The Jaguars limp into this game with a 1-8 record straight up and a 4-5 record against the spread. Last week the Jaguars were beat up by the Steelers in Jacksonville, and this week they will be the hosts once again against the Browns. Homefield advantage hasn't meant much for the Jaguars this season as they are 1-4 straight up and 2-3 against the spread in Jacksonville. The quarterback has been a big question for the Jags this week and it seems that Mike Glennon will be starting in place for the rookie Luton who struggled again last week. Where Luton had nothing to lose as a rookie, Mike Glennon is a known entity in the NFL, and we have a feeling he will struggle when the Browns defense brings pressure.
Our NFL best bet model is backing the Jags in this game and is taking the +6.5 points, which we can understand, but don't agree with this week. The Browns have played a ton of close games this season, so it makes sense why you would take the points against them, but this week against the Jags may not be the week to do it. The Jaguars look like they are close to giving up on the year and putting in Mike Glennon under center is a bit of a desperation move for this season.
BetQL NFL Best Bet: Jacksonville Jaguars (+6.5)
BetQL's NFL Best Bets
Betting on the NFL can sometimes feel impossible. Once you feel like you have a good feel on a team the next week they are getting blown out or not even coming close to covering the spread. We have all been there before, and we have all spent the hour before kick off on a Sunday morning attempt to find a winning NFL picks to stop the bleeding. Luckily BetQL is here to save you precious time and energy with our NFL best bets. No matter the week, game, or bet type BetQL will always have a best bet star rating to show you which way our NFL model is betting.
BetQL's NFL best bets are shown on a 5-star scale rating that not only shows how confident we feel the pick is, but also how much value is in the pick. When you are betting on football especially moneylines it's important to make sure you are getting good value out of the listed NFL odds. Winning bets is great but if you have to risk your entire bank roll to win a fraction back then it is not nearly as fun. With BetQL's NFL best bets you always know that you can feel confident in our picks, but also that you will get the value that you deserve.
Our best bets are processed the second that the NFL lines are released. With other sites you may have to wait for a so called expert to look through all the data and formulate a pick, but with BetQL our best bets are instant. Our best bet model identifies winners every week of the NFL season and even provides playoff picks. Check out BetQL with a full subscription to get our NFL best bets for every week, game, and bet type.
NFL Betting Lines Explained
Betting on the NFL can be fun or heartbreaking, but it also can be a bit difficult to understand if you are new. BetQL is here to get you up to speed on the things you need to know to bet on professional football. NFL betting lines are made up of two different things, the point spread, and the odds. Below we will go into more details about each:
NFL Point Spreads Explained
An NFL point spread is the number of points a team needs to win by to win the bet. Betting against the spread, or ATS for short, is the most popular way to bet on NFL games and is not too difficult to understand. The team that is favored will be listed with a negative number (ie. -5) and that is the number they need to win the game by. In this example the favorite must win by 6 or more points to “cover” the spread and win the bet. If they win by exactly 5-points the bet is considered a “push” or “no-bet”. The inverse of this example is called the underdog and next to their team will be a positive number (ie. +5) and this number is the maximum their team can lose by. In this example the underdog can lose by 5 points or less to be considered a win. If the team loses by exactly 5 then the bet is considered a “push” or “no-bet”. Overall NFL point spreads are put in place by the sportsbook to attempt to get bets on each team.
NFL Odds Explained
For every NFL game there are odds that show how likely each team is to win the game. They are no different than any other type of statistical odds, but with sports betting the odds also correspond to how much you can win by betting each side. The larger the odds the bigger the underdog that team is and the more you can win by betting them. A negative number next to a team means that, that team is the favorite and the smaller the number the less money you can win by betting that side. The typical way that NFL odds are shown is in the American odds format which attempts to show how much you can win by risking $100. If you are betting against the spread then the odds will usually always be -110 since the spread is already being utilized to even the playing field. Where NFL odds matter most is when you are betting a game straight up or against the spread. Handicappers have a good feeling which team will ultimately win the game so the odds of a favorite winning straight up will never be all that advantageous. Finding value in the odds is the mark of a great NFL bettor and luckily BetQL is here to help you find value in the odds. If a team has (-500) odds and you have to risk $500 to win only $100 our best bet rating will let you know there is little value in betting that game on the moneyline. Our best bet model always takes the odds into account when it processes our star ratings so you can be sure we are not only confident but you stand to be profitable. If you want to read a more in depth example of how NFL odds work take a look at our example below:
NFL ATS Example:
The New York Giants are playing the Philadelphia Eagles in Philadelphia and the NFL point spread is set at +/- 7.5 with the Eagles favored. The point spread being Giants (+7.5) means they can lose the game by up to 7 points and still cover. The Eagles spread (-7.5) means that they have to win by at least 8 points to cover. The NFL odds are listed at Giants (+7.5) (+110) and the Eagles (-7.5) (-110). This means a $100 bet on the Giants to cover the spread will win you $110 in profit, while a $100 bet on the Eagles to cover the spread will net you $90 in profit. At the start of the game the Eagles take an early lead and at the end of the first quarter the score is Eagles 7 - Giants 0. The Giants are able to bring the game back to a tie, but right before halftime the Eagles connect on a long pass and the score at halftime is Eagles 14 - Giants 7. After the break the Giants come out flat and and the Eagles are able to score again so the score is now Eagles 21 - Giants 7. The Giants finally wake up in the 4th quarter and bring the score back to within striking distance Eagles 21 - Giants 14. After a terrible interception the Giants score again and now the score is all tied up Eagles 21 - Giants 21. With only 2 minutes left in the 4th quarter Daniel Jones drives the Giants down the field and scores a touchdown with no time remaining. The Giants with the game, Giants 28 - Eagles 21. Looking back at the spread the Eagles were (-7.5) which would make the score Giants 28 - Eagles 13.5 which means the Giants have covered and all Eagles bettors lose.
What is the best bet in the Dolphins-Jets Week 12 game?