NFL Best Bets for Today
BetQL's NFL Week 7 Spreads Analysis:
Betting on NFL games and being successful can be difficult and it all starts with understanding how to play the NFL spreads. A point or two difference on the line can be the difference between a win or loss. Here you will find our analysis of our favorite NFL point spreads for the week. Although the sportsbooks are good at setting NFL lines they aren't perfect so each and every week of the NFL season you will see our NFL spreads analysis where you will find out how we feel about each spread and identify where we can take advantage.
New York Giants vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Point Spread: Eagles (-4.5)
Odds: Giants (+195), Eagles (-245)
Week 7 in the NFL gets kicked off with two NFC East rivals going to head to head in a game that could decide the leader of the division. Both teams enter this game with one win and a whole lot of injuries. The current point spread in this game is +/- 4.5 with the Eagles listed as the favorite. We have a feeling that this point spread will start to move more towards the Eagles as we get closer to to kick off.
The Giants come into this matchup after getting their first win this past Sunday in exciting fashion. The Giants had a bit of luck on their side as the Washington Football Team decided to go for the win, and go for two at the end of their game. With Washington's two point conversion failing it secured the win for the Giants. Although the Giants look much improved from last year they are still struggling on both sides of the ball. The Giants' offense needs to wake up on Thursday night because they will be forced to score points if they hope to win this game. The Eagles have been putting up points week after week, and the porous Giants' defense won't be able to slow them down. It is a bit surprising to see the point spread in this game sit right in the Vegas Zone as we figured it would have opened a bit more towards the Eagles.
The Eagles are having a bit of a rough year throughout the entire organization, but they will look to turn their season around with this Thursday night game against the Giants. The Eagles are 6-0 with Doug Peterson coaching on Thursday nights and they have had the Giants' number for the past few years. They had a triumphant comeback against the Ravens last week but weren't able to convert on a two point conversion which would have tied the game in the 4th quarter. The Eagles will be playing a much easier opponent on Thursday when they take on the Giants. Although the Eagles have a ton of injuries on both sides of the ball they haven't looked much worse for wear without their starting lineup. The Eagles should easily get the win is this game but will they cover? We would have though the point spread in this game would have opened at around Eagles (-6.5), and it will be interesting to see if it climbs up to towards that number before kickoff.
Dallas Cowboys vs. Washington Football Team
Point Spread: EVEN
Odds: Cowboys (-110), Washington (-110)
The NFC East will have another heated rivalry game on Sunday when the Cowboys take on Washington, after a disastrous Monday Night Football appearance this point spread currently sits Even, which makes it a pick'em for these two division foes. Could this point spread be an overreaction to the Cowboys embarassing performance against Arizona? Or is Dallas really that bad without Dak under center and their offensive line decimated?
The Cowboys had a pretty hot start to the year with a few big comebacks and securing two wins quickly, but it has gone downhill since then. Their starting quarterback and much of their offensive line is out with injuries and it showed in their last game, as the Arizona defense was in the Cowboy's backfield within seconds each and every snap. So far with Andy Dalton starting under center the Cowboys haven't been able to sustain much of an offensive drive, and Zeke Elliot's fumbling issues have been more and more obvious. The Cowboys defense has been lost the entire year and we have a feeling they won't get it together for this game against Washington. At the end of the day Dallas is the better team, but right now they are playing so poorly that it is hard to justify the Cowboys giving points to anyone right now.
The Washington Football team is one of the more confusing teams in the league, and they will be looking for their first win since week 1 in this game against the Cowboys. It seems last years' first round pick Dwayne Haskins is done in Washington and they have handed the keys over to Kyle Allen earlier than anyone would have expected. The switch at QB hasn't made all too much of a difference as Washington hasn't been able to score over 21 points with Allen starting. Washington will be facing one of the worst defenses in the NFL against the Cowboys, so if they can't put something together this week it may be a long year for Washington. The Washington defense has showed some flashes that they can limit the amount of scores their opponents can string together, but with such a weak offense it hasn't translated into any wins. Again this week they will be facing one of the most injured offensive lines in the league, they will need to get to Dalton, get physical, and make him uncomfortable to win this game. We were surprised to see this game open at an Even point spread, because it seems like it is a bit of an overreaction to the Cowboys poor play last week. We most likely would have placed this point spread at Dallas (-2.5) but it will be very interesting to see where the point spread is right before kick off.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Las Vegas Raiders
Point Spread: Buccaneers (-3.5)
Odds: Buccaneers (-200), Raiders (+170)
One of the most hyped games of Week 7 that is circled on our calendar is when the Tampa Bay Buccaneers head to Vegas to take on the Raiders. Both of these teams are coming off great performances in their last game so who knows what will happen when these two go at it. Currently the point spread sits at +/- 3.5 with the Buccaneers as the favorite. This point spread may be a bit inflated with the Buccaneers recent performance, but we are ready for a great game.
Tampa Bay comes into this game after dismantling a red hot Green Bay Packers team. The Bucs defense looked unreal and made Aaron Rodgers look like a back up. They won't be facing Aaron Rodgers this week, but the Raiders offense has been equally potent this season. Tampa is quickly becoming on the public's favorite teams and we will see if they can keep it going into this week.
The Raiders shocked the world by beating the Chiefs in their last game, and they did it pretty handily. Can the Raiders continue to put up points like they have in the past few weeks? The Raiders are averaging 30 points per game this season, and so far the Bucs defense up until last week has looked very beatable. This will be one of the more interesting games because we will find out if the Raiders are really legit or not. We would have placed this line at Bucs -3, but understand the point spread sitting at 3.5 will entice bettors on both sides.
BetQL's Free Best Bet of the Week:
Every week we will unlock one of our NFL best bets so not only will you get free picks, but you can also see exactly how BetQL works. You will get the subscriber experience for one game a week where you can see all the data we have on that game for every single bet type. Here we will take a closer look at the spread for our free game and break down where our model would have placed that line. If you want to see more data about the public, pros, or over under you can go take a look at those pages. All data for our free best bet of the week is unlocked and free to everyone.
Los Angeles Chargers vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Point Spread: Chargers (-7.5)
Odds: Chargers (-380), Jaguars (+300)
Our free game of the week may not be the most exciting game of the week but it is interesting because the point spread is a bit fishy. The Jaguars will be traveling to the West coast to take on the Los Angeles Chargers, the current point spread in this game sits at +/- 7.5 points with the Chargers listed as the heavy favorite. Although the Jaguars aren't the best team in the league they have been able to keep half of their games somewhat close, so the moneyline pick may be simple for this game as the odds show, but betting against the spread could be a bit more difficult. Read our full point spread analysis below.
The Chargers enter this game with a 1-4 record straight up but a 4-1 record against the spread. The last time we saw the Chargers they took the Saints to the limit but ended up dropping a close game 27-30. The Chargers have done an amazing job keeping games close although they can't exactly get the win. It is always interesting to see a team that only has one win be a 7.5 point favorite, but here we are with the Chargers. The last time the Chargers were a home favorite they were (-6) against the Carolina Panthers, which they did not cover and they lost the game straight up.
Rookie quarterback Justin Herbert has looking good in flashes so far, but also looks like a rookie a lot of the time. The Jaguars defense isn't what it once was but they should be bother the rookie somewhat. The Chargers' offense is averaging about 22 points per game this season, but in the past two weeks the Bolts have put up 27 and 31 points, if they can get to around that number it may be enough to win the game, but the most important thing for this team will be the defense. To cover a 7.5 point spread they will really need to limit a Jaguars' offense that occasionally is able to score at will. The Chargers' defense has actually looked pretty stout this year, both at getting to the quarterback, and defending the long ball. The Jaguars' offense can sometimes feel a bit chaotic so if the Chargers' defense is able to put a lid on them and limit the number of first downs they will have a good shot at covering the spread.
The Jaguars enter this game with a 1-5 record straight up and a 2-4 record against the spread. Quoting the legendary Dennis Green "they are who we thought they were", sort of. Before the year started all the experts pinned the Jaguars as the worst team in the league, and after a shocking week 1 win against the Colts the Jags have played like everyone thought they would, dropping their next five games. During the five week losing skid the Jags are also having big issues covering the spread, as they were only able to cover in week 2 against the Titans. The past four weeks have been tough for the Jags as they have lost and failed to cover against the Dolphins, Bengals, Texans, and the Lions. Not exactly a murderers' row of teams and they will play the Chargers who may be better than all of those teams this week. In the past two weeks the Jags have had major issues scoring the ball only scoring 14 and 16 points combined. They will have to go up against a difficult defense this week so they will really need to keep their fingers crossed that they can score here.
The Jaguars have been a bit of Jekyll and Hyde, some games they are in a close shootout and others they are blown out and never have a shot. The Jags will be in a familiar spot on Sunday as a road underdog, this will be the highest number of points they are getting this season at 7.5, which is a lot of points. If the Jags are able to put up at least 21 points they may be able to cover this spread.
Overall the point spread in this game is a bit puzzling as it is pretty rare that a team with one win is giving 7.5 points. The Chargers have suffered some tough losses this season, but have shown they are able to play at a high level. Their last game against the Saints showed a lot of potential, but the Jaguars may be the scrappiest team in the league. The Jags aren't very good but they have the ability to surprise teams, and looking at our NFL best bet model it would have placed the line at +/- 7 and we have to agree with the model. There is really no reason why the Chargers are giving a full score and then some. Although the Jags will have a lot of trouble winning this game we have a feeling they can cover the spread here.
BetQL's NFL Best Bets
Betting on the NFL can sometimes feel impossible. Once you feel like you have a good feel on a team the next week they are getting blown out or not even coming close to covering the spread. We have all been there before, and we have all spent the hour before kick off on a Sunday morning attempt to find a winning NFL picks to stop the bleeding. Luckily BetQL is here to save you precious time and energy with our NFL best bets. No matter the week, game, or bet type BetQL will always have a best bet star rating to show you which way our NFL model is betting.
BetQL's NFL best bets are shown on a 5-star scale rating that not only shows how confident we feel the pick is, but also how much value is in the pick. When you are betting on football especially moneylines it's important to make sure you are getting good value out of the listed NFL odds. Winning bets is great but if you have to risk your entire bank roll to win a fraction back then it is not nearly as fun. With BetQL's NFL best bets you always know that you can feel confident in our picks, but also that you will get the value that you deserve.
Our best bets are processed the second that the NFL lines are released. With other sites you may have to wait for a so called expert to look through all the data and formulate a pick, but with BetQL our best bets are instant. Our best bet model identifies winners every week of the NFL season and even provides playoff picks. Check out BetQL with a full subscription to get our NFL best bets for every week, game, and bet type.
NFL Betting Lines Explained
Betting on the NFL can be fun or heartbreaking, but it also can be a bit difficult to understand if you are new. BetQL is here to get you up to speed on the things you need to know to bet on professional football. NFL betting lines are made up of two different things, the point spread, and the odds. Below we will go into more details about each:
NFL Point Spreads Explained
An NFL point spread is the number of points a team needs to win by to win the bet. Betting against the spread, or ATS for short, is the most popular way to bet on NFL games and is not too difficult to understand. The team that is favored will be listed with a negative number (ie. -5) and that is the number they need to win the game by. In this example the favorite must win by 6 or more points to “cover” the spread and win the bet. If they win by exactly 5-points the bet is considered a “push” or “no-bet”. The inverse of this example is called the underdog and next to their team will be a positive number (ie. +5) and this number is the maximum their team can lose by. In this example the underdog can lose by 5 points or less to be considered a win. If the team loses by exactly 5 then the bet is considered a “push” or “no-bet”. Overall NFL point spreads are put in place by the sportsbook to attempt to get bets on each team.
NFL Odds Explained
For every NFL game there are odds that show how likely each team is to win the game. They are no different than any other type of statistical odds, but with sports betting the odds also correspond to how much you can win by betting each side. The larger the odds the bigger the underdog that team is and the more you can win by betting them. A negative number next to a team means that, that team is the favorite and the smaller the number the less money you can win by betting that side. The typical way that NFL odds are shown is in the American odds format which attempts to show how much you can win by risking $100. If you are betting against the spread then the odds will usually always be -110 since the spread is already being utilized to even the playing field. Where NFL odds matter most is when you are betting a game straight up or against the spread. Handicappers have a good feeling which team will ultimately win the game so the odds of a favorite winning straight up will never be all that advantageous. Finding value in the odds is the mark of a great NFL bettor and luckily BetQL is here to help you find value in the odds. If a team has (-500) odds and you have to risk $500 to win only $100 our best bet rating will let you know there is little value in betting that game on the moneyline. Our best bet model always takes the odds into account when it processes our star ratings so you can be sure we are not only confident but you stand to be profitable. If you want to read a more in depth example of how NFL odds work take a look at our example below:
NFL ATS Example:
The New York Giants are playing the Philadelphia Eagles in Philadelphia and the NFL point spread is set at +/- 7.5 with the Eagles favored. The point spread being Giants (+7.5) means they can lose the game by up to 7 points and still cover. The Eagles spread (-7.5) means that they have to win by at least 8 points to cover. The NFL odds are listed at Giants (+7.5) (+110) and the Eagles (-7.5) (-110). This means a $100 bet on the Giants to cover the spread will win you $110 in profit, while a $100 bet on the Eagles to cover the spread will net you $90 in profit. At the start of the game the Eagles take an early lead and at the end of the first quarter the score is Eagles 7 - Giants 0. The Giants are able to bring the game back to a tie, but right before halftime the Eagles connect on a long pass and the score at halftime is Eagles 14 - Giants 7. After the break the Giants come out flat and and the Eagles are able to score again so the score is now Eagles 21 - Giants 7. The Giants finally wake up in the 4th quarter and bring the score back to within striking distance Eagles 21 - Giants 14. After a terrible interception the Giants score again and now the score is all tied up Eagles 21 - Giants 21. With only 2 minutes left in the 4th quarter Daniel Jones drives the Giants down the field and scores a touchdown with no time remaining. The Giants with the game, Giants 28 - Eagles 21. Looking back at the spread the Eagles were (-7.5) which would make the score Giants 28 - Eagles 13.5 which means the Giants have covered and all Eagles bettors lose.
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