Chiefs vs Buccaneers
There’s no doubt that the biggest game on the Week 4 NFL schedule is the Super Bowl LV rematch between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. This will be the first time the teams have played since the Super Bowl and could be the final time Patrick Mahomes and Tom Brady share a field, potentially setting up a passing-of-the-torch moment. Of course, the game takes on added importance in the short term because both teams are coming off a loss and trying to avoid a second straight defeat.
Perhaps the most surprising part of the NFL season thus far is that the Buccaneers are being led by their defense rather than their offense. Tampa is conceding just nine points per game after holding Aaron Rodgers and the Packers to just 14 points in last week’s loss. Based on the first three weeks of the season, the Bucs might have a championship-caliber defense but will need more out of Brady and the offense. It’s certainly been a struggle for Brady, who is averaging just 6.5 yards per pass and has just three touchdown passes. Getting Mike Evans back from a one-game suspension should help. But the Bucs have also gone without an explosive play from their rushing attack. As a team, they are gaining just 3.4 yards per carry and don’t appear to have a second option behind Leonard Fournette, putting even more pressure on Brady to get going and carry the Tampa offense.
On the other side, the Kansas City offense is also coming off a rare poor performance. Things even got a little heated on the sidelines with Mahomes expressing his frustration. That’s what happens when Mahomes ends up being the team’s leading rusher in a game with 26 yards. The Chiefs weren’t exactly clicking in Week 2 either, as it was a pick-six by the Kansas City defense that made the difference in a 27-24 win over the Chargers. Of course, it doesn’t take the Kansas City offense much to get going and look unstoppable. But after they struggled on the road last week, facing arguably the NFL’s best defense on the road this week could lead to more problems for Mahomes and company, making the Bucs a good candidate to steal a win as a home underdog.
Bills vs Ravens
The Buffalo Bills are hoping to exorcise some demons in Week 4. Not only are they coming off a loss to the Dolphins last week, but the last time they traveled to Charm City to face the Baltimore Ravens, they lost 47-3. Obviously, the Bills beat the Ravens in a playoff game in the most recent meeting between these teams. However, they have lost their last five trips to Baltimore and have the added pressure of trying to bounce back from last week’s loss as road favorites this week.
Buffalo’s other problem will be trying to contain Lamar Jackson, which has proven harder to do this season than in the past. Jackson might be the early MVP leader, already throwing 10 touchdown passes while also gaining 9.3 yards per carry as a runner. To be fair, Baltimore’s passing game revolves around tight end Mark Andrews more so than the team’s wide receivers. Jackson also has more rushing attempts and yards than any of Baltimore’s running backs. But if teams aren’t able to stop Jackson, there’s no reason for the Ravens to take the ball out of his hands. Of course, Jackson has needed to play at an elite level because the Baltimore defense has conceded 68 total points over the last two weeks. Oddly enough, the team’s worst defensive game this year came in a home loss to the Dolphins two weeks ago, raising some red flags.
While the Bills also lost to that same Miami team last week, Josh Allen and the Buffalo offense are more than capable of taking advantage of a porous Baltimore defense. Allen is right up there with Jackson in the early MVP race, as the Bills lead the NFL in passing with Allen throwing nine touchdown passes in three games. The difference is that the Bills have quality wide receivers who can make plays down the field. They also have a defense that’s played at a high level early in the season despite last week’s loss. While the secondary has been hit hard by injuries, the Bills dominated the Rams and Titans during the first two weeks of the season and are allowing just 12.7 points per game. With the Buffalo defense looking like the more likely unit to get a stop, the Bills should have enough of an edge in this game to win and cover, even on the road.
Titans vs Colts
At the start of the season, this week’s game between the Tennessee Titans and the Indianapolis Colts looked like it might go a long way toward determining what team wins the AFC South. Instead, both teams are looking up at Jacksonville in the standings and trying to get back on track after disappointing results early in the season. With both teams coming off a win last week and trying to build some momentum, the Colts are favored at home, although the Titans have won in their last three trips to Indy.
Despite two horrific performances in Weeks 1 and 2, the Colts proved that they can be tough at home last week, upsetting the Chiefs 20-17. Of course, it could take more than one impressive win to overcome an embarrassing tie with the Texans in Week 1 and a shutout loss against the Jaguars in Week 2. Even after last week’s win, the Colts rank last in the NFL in scoring. They’ve struggled to get running back Jonathan Taylor going after his exceptional 2021 campaign. At the same time, Matt Ryan has done anything but hit the ground running with his new team. That likely puts the onus on the Indy defense to carry the load again this week for the 1-1-1 Colts.
The silver lining for Indy is that the Titans are very much in the same boat. In past years, Tennessee’s offense has been carried by Derrick Henry, but he’s yet to hit his stride this season. He’s averaging just 3.6 yards per carry and has just one carry of 20 yards or more in three games. That has left Ryan Tannehill to pick up the slack, which hasn’t happened with the Titans rolling out a largely inexperienced group of receivers. Even in last week’s win, the Titans were scoreless in the second half, so that win isn’t necessarily going to be a turning point for them. However, the Tennessee defense came up with a stop on a two-point conversion to preserve last week’s win over the Raiders. If the Titans can continue to get a good effort from their defense and move past their 41-7 loss to the Bills in Week 2, they can at least keep things close with the Colts in what could be a close, low-scoring, and potentially ugly game.
If you are here for NFL point spreads you came to the right place because at BetQL we have the most updated point spreads directly from the sportsbooks. If the point spread moves at all at the sportsbook you can be sure that we have the most updated line on this page. Having the most updated NFL point spread is crucial to being a successful football bettor. There is nothing worse that doing research for a game, coming to check the NFL point spreads for Sunday afternoon, heading to your sportsbook to place a bet and then seeing the point spread actually moved earlier that morning.
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The most common way to bet on the NFL, and college football for that matter, is betting Against The Spread (ATS). So, what is betting ATS? For every game, there will be a point spread. The point spread will be shown next to each team and will always be inverse numbers of each other. For example you may see (-6) next to one team and (+6) next to the other. These numbers are the point spread and they will be inverse numbers every single time. The team that is favored will be listed with a negative number (ie. -6) and that is the number they need to win the game by. In this example the favorite must win by 6 or more points to “cover” the spread and win the bet. If they win the game by exactly 6-points the bet is considered a “push” or “no-bet”. The team with the positive number is called the underdog and next to their team will the same point spread number as the favorite, but positive. This number is the maximum their team can lose by. In this example the underdog can lose by 6 points or less to be considered a win. If the team loses by exactly 6 then the bet is considered a “push” or “no-bet”.
You may be wondering why NFL point spreads exist and the answer to that is to make it fair / more approachable to bet each side. The sportsbook aim is to get as many people to bet on the favorite as they have people betting the underdog. This is because they will make money no matter who wins if both sides are equal. Everyone has a good idea who is going to win the game straight up or "on the moneyline" but the point spread is added to even the game out and make things a bit more fair. No one thinks the Rams will lose to the Jaguars outright but when the Jaguars are given a 7.5 point head start things become a lot more fair.
NFL Point Spread Example: Green Bay Packers (-7) vs. Chicago Bears (+7)
(Packers Must Win By More Than 7 Points) Chicago Bears +7 (Bears Can’t Lose By More Than 7 Points)
The Green Bay Packers are playing the Chicago Bears in Chicago at Soldier Field, and the NFL point spread is set at 7 with the Packers favored. The Bears (+7) can lose the game by up to 7 points and still cover. The Packers (-7) must win the game by at least 8 points to cover the point spread, as a 7-point win would be a push and you just get your bet refunded. So, let’s say the Bears with their new starter Justin Fields beat Aaron Rodgers and the Packers 24 to 21. In this scenario, the Bears (+7) actually won 31 to 14 against the Packers (-7). That’s because if you are going by the point spread, you add 7 to the final score for the Bears, and take away 7 points for the Packers. Whoever came out on top after that calculation, was the winner of the bet. In this case, all Bears backers win and everyone who bet the Packers takes the loss.
When some one mentions NFL odds they are talking about the statistical probability that a team is likely to win the game. When betting on the NFL the odds will always be listed next to the point spread, the over under, or whatever line you are betting. For example if you are betting on an over under your sportsbook will show, Over (-110), Under (-120) these numbers are the odds and they signify how likely that bet is to win. The NFL odds will always be in parenthesis (-110) next to the bet type!
The format of NFL odds you will most likely see on your sportsbook is called American Odds, which works in values of 100. When you see (-110) that means you have to wager $110 to win $100. If you see (-250) that means you will have to wager $250 to win $100. American odds are easiest to understand when you are betting in multiples of 100. On the other side if you see a positive number that team is the underdog so if a team is (+110) it means if you place a $100 wager on that team and they will you will get $110.
We know betting against the spread can be a bit confusing and learning about NFL odds and point spreads isn't exactly easy so we wrote out some examples for you below
NFL Odds Example: Chicago Bears (+7, -110) vs. Green Bay Packers (-7, -110)
This NFL odds example should be fairly simple to understand once you know what the numbers mean. In this instance, both odds are listed as -110. This simply means is that in order to win $100, you must bet $110 dollars on either side. The amounts do not have to be this small or large either, as it would mean the same thing with any amount. An $11 wager would win you $10, while an $1,100 dollar wager would win you $1,000, and so on. This extra price you have to pay is called “vig” or “juice” on a line. Think of it like a tax you are having to pay the books to place your bet.
There are times when you will see a “plus-money” odds with a spread bet, however, that is very rare. If you do see one, it will simply have a “+” instead of a “-“ in front of the number. Let’s say the number is +160. What this means is that if you bet $100 on this line, you would win $160. So, you are not having to pay a tax at all, and instead, you are getting a much higher payout. Lines like these are always on a bet that is more unlikely to win, so you will have to be okay with the risk that involves being in the unfavorable situation. The larger the odds, the bigger the underdog, and the more you can win by betting them if they win.
Luckily for all of us, BetQL is here to tell us if there is any value in the lines that get released each week. If a team is favored by a -500 mark, you have to bet $500 to win $100, which means that is a huge favorite and a big risk if they lose. BetQL will let you know
Lines are very easy to figure out. When someone says “What’s the line?”, they are basically just asking you what the spread is. In the examples from above, you’d just say that the spread is 7 with Green Bay favored, and the odds are -110 both ways. When you go to the sportsbook, you’ll see a whole bunch of numbers that will probably be confusing or overwhelming to the novice sports bettor. Betting the NFL can also be heartbreaking, but by knowing what the line is, you’ll be able to make a more informed bet. Don’t go into a sportsbook unprepared and without knowing what certain dialogue means. BetQL is here to help you bet on these lines and make smarter bets that win.
BetQL is more than just NFL football picks, our model has everything you need to successfully bet on college football. This time of year we have football on 12+ hours every Saturday and Sunday so make sure you are maximizing your profits with BetQL. When you subscribe to BetQL at the highest level you will get college football best bets from our model, picks for every game from our experts, a line movement tracker, consensus picks for the week, 1st half picks against the spread, and over under picks. No matter how you want to bet on football BetQL has you covered will all of our analysis, picks, and data. Bet a better bettor with BetQL