NFL Best Bets for Today

NFL Best Bets for Week 14

Browns vs Bengals

Coming off a win over the Chiefs for their fourth consecutive victory, the Cincinnati Bengals must feel like they’re on top of the world. Since their 0-2 start, the Bengals are 8-2 SU and 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games. They will surely expect to keep things going this week when they host the Cleveland Browns as six-point favorites. However, the Browns have won back-to-back games themselves in addition to winning eight of the last nine games between these AFC North rivals.

After making a late push for MVP honors in 2021, Joe Burrow looks like he might do the same thing in 2022. He was nearly invincible last week, completing 25 of his 31 passes for 286 yards. During Cincinnati’s four-game winning streak, Burrow has thrown eight touchdown passes and just two interceptions. Perhaps more importantly, he’s only been sacked five times during that span, as the Bengals are finally starting to gel up front and keep their star quarterback better protected. On top of that, Ja’Marr Chase returned from injury last week and hauled in seven passes for 97 yards to lead all receivers. Even with Joe Mixon banged up, the Bengals got  106 rushing yards and 49 receiving yards last week from Samaje Perine, who proved to be a more than adequate fill-in for Mixon. In other words, the Bengals are starting to look like a well-oiled machine offensively, scoring at least 27 points in five of their last seven games.

Of course, one of the teams to keep the Cincinnati offense in check during that stretch was the Browns. The Cleveland defense ranks near the bottom of the NFL, as the Browns are conceding 25 points per game on the season. Nevertheless, they were able to hold the Bengals to just 13 points in a 32-13 win last month. The Cleveland rushing attack also did some damage in that game with Nick Chubb rushing for 101 yards and two touchdowns. The 5-7 Browns are still clinging to hope of a late-season playoff push after back-to-back wins over the Buccaneers and Texans. They also have Deshaun Watson, who looked a little rusty but got the job done in his season debut last week. With Watson back and plenty of confidence, not to mention Cleveland’s recent history against the Bengals, the Browns look like a team that can at least beat the spread in this week’s game, if not surprise the Bengals yet again.

Vikings vs Lions

Even at 5-7, the Detroit Lions aren’t giving up on the season or a potential playoff push. They’ve won four of their last five games and look poised to finish strong. Even oddsmakers are starting to give them credit, as Detroit is favored by 2.5 points at home against the Minnesota Vikings this week. The Lions played a tight game in Minnesota earlier this season, losing 28-24. They also beat the Vikings in Detroit last season. However, that win is Detroit’s only win in the last nine games between these NFC North rivals, meaning the Lions will be fighting history if they hope to win and cover the spread this week.

While Detroit’s history is enough to make one skeptical, they deserve a little credit for their recent play. The Lions crushed the Jaguars 40-14 last week and are now averaging 31.8 points per game over their last four games. That stretch includes a road win over the Giants and a three-point loss on Thanksgiving against the Bills. Defensively, things haven’t improved much over the course of the season with the Lions conceding a league-high 27 points per game. But Jared Goff has the offense clicking, not unlike he did during the early part of the season. Plus, De’Andre Swift had a bounce-back game last week and is complementing Jamaal Williams, who can’t stop scoring touchdowns. That has helped to keep the Detroit offense balanced, and as long as the Lions can stay balanced offensively, they can stay in games.

On the other hand, only the Eagles and Cowboys have successfully outplayed the Vikings this season. Following Minnesota’s humiliating loss against the Cowboys, the Vikings have responded with back-to-back wins over the Patriots and Jets. Despite the imperfections of Kirk Cousins and a mediocre defense, the Vikings are finding ways to win games. Keep in mind that they have three wins on the road this season, all of which came against teams that currently have a winning record. Even if they haven’t dominated teams or been overly convincing for a team that’s 10-2, the Vikings have proven themselves to have a knack for winning. That makes them an intriguing underdog this week, especially against a Detroit team that still has a lot to prove.

Buccaneers vs 49ers

Both teams appear to be at a crossroads in their season ahead of the Week 14 matchup between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the San Francisco 49ers. The Bucs have been frustratingly inconsistent this season, yet they are perfectly positioned to win the NFC South and host a playoff game in January. Meanwhile, the 49ers are one of the hottest teams in the NFL but will have to turn to third-string quarterback Brock Purdy moving forward. Despite the quarterback matchup being Purdy vs Tom Brady, the 49ers are favored by 3.5 points at home in this game.

Brady and the Bucs needed a late comeback in last week’s Monday night game just to beat the Saints and get themselves to 6-6. With that win, the Bucs have now won three of their last four games and appear to be moving in the right direction. However, Tampa needed three wins in four games just to get to .500. The good news is that even with a loss this week, the Bucs will still hold a one-game lead atop the NFC South. Of course, that may not be a positive for the Bucs. Even after 12 games, Brady is still struggling to get the Tampa offense moving the way most envisioned before the season. Even with three wins in their last four games, the Bucs have scored 17 points or less in three of those four games. They’ve also lost their last three road games, all of which have come against teams with a losing record, which doesn’t inspire much confidence for Tampa’s chances to venture West and knock off the 49ers.

Without question, the San Francisco defense has been the catalyst for the 49ers winning five straight games. During that stretch, no team has scored more than 17 points against them, as San Francisco shut out the Saints two weeks ago and proceeded to keep Tua Tagovailoa and the Dolphins in check last week. Against Brady and a sluggish Tampa offense, the top-ranked San Francisco defense figures to have its way. The question is whether or not Purdy and the offense can do enough to complement that outstanding defense. The seventh-round pick from Iowa State played well in relief last week, completing 25 of 37 passes for 210 yards with two touchdown passes and an interception. Even with a solid performance off the bench, the San Francisco offense could still be somewhat limited. However, the team’s top playmakers like Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, and Brandon Aiyuk are all healthy and at Purdy’s disposal. That could be enough for the 49ers to take care of business this week, especially since they know the defense isn’t likely to give up many points, even against Brady.

The Most Updated NFL Point Spreads

If you are here for NFL point spreads you came to the right place because at BetQL we have the most updated point spreads directly from the sportsbooks. If the point spread moves at all at the sportsbook you can be sure that we have the most updated line on this page. Having the most updated NFL point spread is crucial to being a successful football bettor. There is nothing worse that doing research for a game, coming to check the NFL point spreads for Sunday afternoon, heading to your sportsbook to place a bet and then seeing the point spread actually moved earlier that morning.

Whether you want to check for the most updated spreads and lines, or you want to know which way BetQL's model is picking don't worry we have your covered! Never get caught up by a website that is posting images of spreads from earlier in the week again, make sure you are looking at live NFL point spreads at BetQL!

NFL Point Spreads Explained

The most common way to bet on the NFL, and college football for that matter, is betting Against The Spread (ATS). So, what is betting ATS? For every game, there will be a point spread. The point spread will be shown next to each team and will always be inverse numbers of each other. For example you may see (-6) next to one team and (+6) next to the other. These numbers are the point spread and they will be inverse numbers every single time. The team that is favored will be listed with a negative number (ie. -6) and that is the number they need to win the game by. In this example the favorite must win by 6 or more points to “cover” the spread and win the bet. If they win the game by exactly 6-points the bet is considered a “push” or “no-bet”. The team with the positive number is called the underdog and next to their team will the same point spread number as the favorite, but positive. This number is the maximum their team can lose by. In this example the underdog can lose by 6 points or less to be considered a win. If the team loses by exactly 6 then the bet is considered a “push” or “no-bet”.

You may be wondering why NFL point spreads exist and the answer to that is to make it fair / more approachable to bet each side. The sportsbook aim is to get as many people to bet on the favorite as they have people betting the underdog. This is because they will make money no matter who wins if both sides are equal. Everyone has a good idea who is going to win the game straight up or "on the moneyline" but the point spread is added to even the game out and make things a bit more fair. No one thinks the Rams will lose to the Jaguars outright but when the Jaguars are given a 7.5 point head start things become a lot more fair.

NFL Point Spread Example: Green Bay Packers (-7) vs. Chicago Bears (+7)
(Packers Must Win By More Than 7 Points) Chicago Bears +7 (Bears Can’t Lose By More Than 7 Points)

The Green Bay Packers are playing the Chicago Bears in Chicago at Soldier Field, and the NFL point spread is set at 7 with the Packers favored. The Bears (+7) can lose the game by up to 7 points and still cover. The Packers (-7) must win the game by at least 8 points to cover the point spread, as a 7-point win would be a push and you just get your bet refunded. So, let’s say the Bears with their new starter Justin Fields beat Aaron Rodgers and the Packers 24 to 21. In this scenario, the Bears (+7) actually won 31 to 14 against the Packers (-7). That’s because if you are going by the point spread, you add 7 to the final score for the Bears, and take away 7 points for the Packers. Whoever came out on top after that calculation, was the winner of the bet. In this case, all Bears backers win and everyone who bet the Packers takes the loss.

NFL Odds Explained

When some one mentions NFL odds they are talking about the statistical probability that a team is likely to win the game. When betting on the NFL the odds will always be listed next to the point spread, the over under, or whatever line you are betting. For example if you are betting on an over under your sportsbook will show, Over (-110), Under (-120) these numbers are the odds and they signify how likely that bet is to win. The NFL odds will always be in parenthesis (-110) next to the bet type!

The format of NFL odds you will most likely see on your sportsbook is called American Odds, which works in values of 100. When you see (-110) that means you have to wager $110 to win $100. If you see (-250) that means you will have to wager $250 to win $100. American odds are easiest to understand when you are betting in multiples of 100. On the other side if you see a positive number that team is the underdog so if a team is (+110) it means if you place a $100 wager on that team and they will you will get $110.

We know betting against the spread can be a bit confusing and learning about NFL odds and point spreads isn't exactly easy so we wrote out some examples for you below

NFL Odds Example: Chicago Bears (+7, -110) vs. Green Bay Packers (-7, -110)

This NFL odds example should be fairly simple to understand once you know what the numbers mean. In this instance, both odds are listed as -110. This simply means is that in order to win $100, you must bet $110 dollars on either side. The amounts do not have to be this small or large either, as it would mean the same thing with any amount. An $11 wager would win you $10, while an $1,100 dollar wager would win you $1,000, and so on. This extra price you have to pay is called “vig” or “juice” on a line. Think of it like a tax you are having to pay the books to place your bet.

There are times when you will see a “plus-money” odds with a spread bet, however, that is very rare. If you do see one, it will simply have a “+” instead of a “-“ in front of the number. Let’s say the number is +160. What this means is that if you bet $100 on this line, you would win $160. So, you are not having to pay a tax at all, and instead, you are getting a much higher payout. Lines like these are always on a bet that is more unlikely to win, so you will have to be okay with the risk that involves being in the unfavorable situation. The larger the odds, the bigger the underdog, and the more you can win by betting them if they win.

Luckily for all of us, BetQL is here to tell us if there is any value in the lines that get released each week. If a team is favored by a -500 mark, you have to bet $500 to win $100, which means that is a huge favorite and a big risk if they lose. BetQL will let you know

NFL Lines Explained:

Lines are very easy to figure out. When someone says “What’s the line?”, they are basically just asking you what the spread is. In the examples from above, you’d just say that the spread is 7 with Green Bay favored, and the odds are -110 both ways. When you go to the sportsbook, you’ll see a whole bunch of numbers that will probably be confusing or overwhelming to the novice sports bettor. Betting the NFL can also be heartbreaking, but by knowing what the line is, you’ll be able to make a more informed bet. Don’t go into a sportsbook unprepared and without knowing what certain dialogue means. BetQL is here to help you bet on these lines and make smarter bets that win.

Want More Football Picks?

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