Karpuc: My Favorite Pick On Thursday’s NBA Slate

After James Harden had five first-quarter assists last night, I thought he was headed towards the huge 11+ assist night that I predicted, but alas, that didn’t happen, as his teammates consistently failed to take advantage of his passes after that point. The night before, the Pistons missed a three-pointer at the buzzer that would have won my +15.5 bet against the Warriors (and they also missed a handful of free throws in the fourth quarter while I was sweating it). Yes, I’m currently on a cold streak. But, I’m trusting my process and making informed bets using BetQL every day and I’m enjoying a profitable NBA season so far because of it. Let’s get to Thursday’s best bet.

The Pick: Suns-Mavericks UNDER 216.5

The under has won in six consecutive Mavericks games and in 11 of the last 12. Stunningly, the under has gone 30-13 in Dallas’ games this season. Additionally, it has gone 17-4 in Mavericks home games this season. 

The under has also won in three straight Suns games and in four of their last five. That side of the total has also gone 13-7 in Phoenix’s road games this year and a perfect 7-0 in the second half of Dallas' back-to-backs.

These are two top five defensive teams, as indicated by the fact that they rank second (Suns) and fourth (Mavs) in Defensive Rating, per NBA.com. 

This month, both teams have been performing at top three levels on the defensive end of the court. Dallas ranks first in Defensive Rating by a wide margin and the Suns have also been streaking and rank third. To put that into context of points per game allowed, the Mavs have surrendered just 94.7 points per contest while the Suns have allowed 103.1. 

Based on the way both of these teams have stifled their opponents all season long and in this month in particular, I love the under in this spot.

Bet this risk-free on Caesars right now if you agree!

Previous Picks (6-5)

❌ Wednesday 1/19: James Harden Over 10.5 Assists (Result: 9)

❌ Tuesday 1/18: Pistons +15.5 at Warriors (Result: Pistons Lost By 16)

❌ Monday 1/17: Trail Blazers-Magic Over 215 (Result: 186)

❌ Friday 1/14: Raptors ML & Grizzlies ML Parlay (Result: Raptors & Grizzlies Lost)

☑️ Thursday 1/13: Grizzlies -4.5 vs. Timberwolves (Result: Grizzlies Won By 8)

❌ Wednesday 1/12: Spurs -6 vs. Rockets (Result: Spurs Lost By 4)

☑️ Tuesday 1/11: Grizzlies +100 ML vs. Warriors (Result: Grizzlies Won)

☑️ Monday 1/10: Bucks-Hornets Under 237.5 (Result: 202)

☑️ Friday 1/7: Raptors -11.5 vs. Jazz (Result: Raptors Won By 14)

☑️ Thursday 1/6: Pistons-Grizzlies Under 220 (Result: 206)

☑️ Wednesday 1/5: Hornets -9.5 vs. Pistons (Result: Hornets Won By 29)