Karpuc: My Favorite Bet On Thursday’s NBA Slate

This bet is standing out to me for many reasons

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The Pick: Grizzlies -4.5 vs. Timberwolves

The Grizzlies (29-14) are the hottest team in the league right now and are riding a 10-game winning streak. Not only have they gone 9-1 ATS in that span, but they’ve taken down some solid opponents like the Nets, Lakers (twice), Cavaliers and Warriors (last game). 

Ja Morant and company have clicked on both ends of the court, as you might expect. 

Offensively, they’ve scored 117.5 points per game (2nd), have scored a whopping 62.2 points in the paint (1st) and 20.7 second-chance points (1st) in that span.

Defensively, they’ve earned the 4th-best Defensive Rating and have allowed 105.2 points per game (T-7th), swatted 7.9 blocks per contest (2nd) and swiped 9.6 steals per game (4th). Overall, their +12.3 average point differential easily ranks 1st in the NBA during their streak.

BetQL is projecting the Grizzlies to win this game against the Timberwolves (20-21) by 6.5 points and is giving Memphis a 76.1% outright win percentage. Minnesota has won four out of five games outright and have gone 3-2 ATS in that span, but have played the three worst teams in the NBA in that five-game set: the Thunder twice, Rockets twice and Pelicans.

While the T-Wolves certainly have a lot of talent in their starting lineup, namely Karl-Anthony Towns, D’Angelo Russell and Anthony Edwards, the way this Grizzlies team is gelling right now can’t be ignored. I’m not fading them until they prove me wrong or until oddsmakers inflate their lines.

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Previous Picks (5-1)

Wednesday: Spurs -6 vs. Rockets  

☑️ Tuesday: Grizzlies +100 ML vs. Warriors 

☑️ Monday: Bucks-Hornets Under 237.5

☑️ Last Friday: Raptors -11.5 vs. Jazz

☑️ Last Thursday: Pistons-Grizzlies Under 220

☑️ Last Wednesday: Hornets -9.5 vs. Pistons

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