As detailed in my NBA Statistical Insights article, the Rockets (8-18) are going to get eaten alive on the boards in this contest. Houston has allowed 21.6 second-chance points per game in their last five games, the worst mark in the NBA in that span. Hawks (13-13) center Clint Capela (4.1 offensive boards per game) is going to crush in this spot and it's also worth mentioning that under Nate McMillan, the Hawks have gone 22-9 ATS against teams with losing records.
The under has been a key trend for both of these teams as they continue to navigate the early-season schedule without stars in their respective lineups. The Suns and Clippers are a combined 22-30 O/U with Phoenix going under in three straight and five of the last six, while the under has hit in three of L.A.’s last four. BetQL is projecting 208.5 points in this one, rating U212 as a four-star value bet. Oh, and BetQL is 114-93 (55.1%) all-time on Suns O/U bets for a total return of $1,046 on $100 bets.
The Grizzlies are 14-12 on the O/U this season and the 76ers have hit this over in three of their last four games. Plus, the Grizzlies are averaging 111.0 points per game and just hit this over in their last contest, while the 76ers are averaging 107.0 points per game. All this leads me to think this game will hit the over tonight.
The Warriors come in with the NBA’s No. 1-ranked scoring defense, with the Pacers right in the middle of the pack at 13th. Golden State is also just 7-17 O/U this season, having gone under in eight of their last nine games. The Pacers are also just 15th in scoring at 108.1 points per game.
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