NFL Expert Picks

BetQL's NFL Picks for this Week

Here you will find BetQL's free NFL picks for today and our NFL picks for this week. Each week BetQL will highlight our free games and give away our NFL picks against the spread. Each week will do a deep dive into our free NFL picks but also take a look at which side the experts are betting early in the week. Although this page is mostly focused on NFL picks against the spread, BetQL has betting data for every game and every bet type throughout the year. If you bet against the spread that is great but if you are looking for moneyline picks or over under picks we have you covered there too. Keep reading below for picks against the spread from our favorite games this week.

San Francisco 49ers vs Jacksonville Jaguars

The San Francisco 49ers and the Jacksonville Jaguars will collide in a game between two teams with losing records, but it’s fair to say these two teams are approaching the rest of the regular season with different mindsets. While San Francisco has a 4-5-0 record and remains alive in the race for a playoff berth if they can string a few wins together, it’s safe to say the Jaguars are already thinking about next season thanks to their 2-7-0 mark. The 49ers are coming off a 31-10 win over the Los Angeles Rams, while the Jags are coming off a 23-17 loss against the Indianapolis Colts. It’s fair to mention Jacksonville has recorded its two wins over the last four weeks, though, so they’re on the rise. With both teams at 2-3 over their last five contests, however, there’s very little separating each franchise. The 49ers are favorites by -6.5 points entering this contest and also have the edge when it comes to the moneyline (-290 to Jacksonville’s +235), and they are quite likely to run away with the victory here. The Jaguars might be on the rise, but they still have too many question marks on offense to potentially pose a threat against a team such as San Francisco.

Indianapolis Colts vs Buffalo Bills

The Indianapolis Colts have been disappointing this season and sit at 5-5-0 this season after reaching the playoffs last season, and while they still have a shot at a wildcard spot given how tight things are in the AFC, Indianapolis just needs to focus on keeping the momentum they’ve had of late -- they’re coming off a 23-17 win over the Jacksonville Jaguars the last time out, pushing their winning streak to two games and winning four of their last five. The Buffalo Bills are not an easy opponent, though. The leaders of the AFC East are coming off a 45-17 win over the New York Jets last week and while they’ve been inconsistent in recent weeks, they’ve still won three of their last five contests while featuring the leader in the MVP race, Josh Allen, under center and being flanked by a stellar defensive unit. Buffalo sits at the top of the AFC East with a 6-3-0 record. The Colts have pretty much everything against them in this contest, and the Bills are backed up in both the moneyline (-330 to +260) and are favorites by -7 points -- when coupling that with the records of both franchises and the fact that Buffalo will be at home, it’s not surprising to see the Bills as clear favorites to come away with the victory in this one.

Houston Texans vs Tennessee Titans

The Houston Texans have been one of the worst teams in the NFL this season according to most metrics, and their record of 1-8-0 certainly backs that up -- they won the season opener against the Jacksonville Jaguars but have lost eight in a row, including going 0-5 on the road, and they’re also coming off a 17-9 loss against the Miami Dolphins. Things are not going to get any easier for them, as the Tennessee Titans are one of the best teams in the NFL right now and they have won their last five contests while holding a comfortable lead at the top of the AFC South thanks to their 8-2-0 record. Their most recent game ended in a 23-21 win over another contending team, the New Orleans Saints. The Titans are also 4-1 when playing at home and they’ve been looking unstoppable of late thanks to their stellar play on both ends of the field. The Titans are massive favorites for this game and hold the edge on the spread by a massive -10.5 points (one of the largest edges in this week) and are in a good position to extend their impressive six-game winning skid against a struggling Texans team, especially considering that they’ll be playing at home.

Green Bay Packers vs Minnesota Vikings

The Green Bay Packers are coming off one of their best defensive performances in recent memory, shutting out the Seattle Seahawks en route to a comfortable 17-0 victory that allowed them to bounce back following their previous loss against the Kansas City Chiefs, a game where Aaron Rodgers wasn’t available. Despite the turmoil surrounding the team, the Packers are still a contending franchise and sit at the top of the division with an 8-2-0 record and have won four of their last five. As for the Minnesota Vikings, they’re in second place with a 4-5-0 mark and while they’re coming off a 27-20 win over the Los Angeles Chargers the last time out, it’s fair to say that win ended a two-game losing skid. They’re still on the rise, though, as Minnesota has recorded three of their four wins in the last five weeks. The Packers having Rodgers back would be a huge boost for them, and while the Vikings have a respectable offense -- one that puts up 24.6 points per game -- it remains to be seen if they’ll be able to do something against a Packers team that gives up just 18.0 points per game. Green Bay is a slim favorite for this one (-1.5 points in the spread and -125 in the moneyline), and while the differential is slim, that should be enough to see Green Bay coming up with the victory.

New Orleans Saints vs Philadelphia Eagles

The New Orleans Saints are 5-4-0 and 3-2 on the road this season, and while they’ve looked like a contender at times, it’s fair to say they’ve also been struggling in recent weeks. They’re coming off a 23-21 loss against the Tennessee Titans last week and that means they’ve lost two games in a row, but they’ve also gone 3-2 in their last five contests while sitting in second place of the NFC South. On the other hand, the Philadelphia Eagles sit in second place of the NFC East with a 4-6-0 record but are way behind the Dallas Cowboys at the top of the division, so their best chance for making a deep playoff run is to earn a Wild Card spot. That might be complicated considering their latest results, as they’ve gone 2-3 in their last five games, but those two wins have come in their last two contests -- against the Detroit Lions and against the Denver Broncos the last time out. The Saints might have the best record, but the numbers show the Eagles being the favorites in both the spread (-2 points) and the moneyline (-130 to +110). It remains to be seen if Jalen Hurts will be able to carry the Eagles to victory here, but the biggest factor here might be the fact that the Saints will be without most of their key players on offense. That alone should be enough to believe Philadelphia will win here.

Cincinnati Bengals vs Las Vegas Raiders

The Cincinnati Bengals and the Las Vegas Raiders have gone through identical runs of results over the last few weeks, and while both teams remain with a strong chance of reaching the playoffs, it’s clear both franchises need to find a way to turn things around sooner than later. The Bengals are coming off a 41-16 loss against the Cleveland Browns the last time our and that pushed their losing streak to two games, and they’ve also gone 2-3 in their last five contests. The same can be said about the Raiders, as they’ve also lost two in a row following their 41-14 loss against the Kansas City Chiefs. As if the similarities were not enough, both teams also sit in third place in their respective divisions. The Bengals have the better offense compared to the Raiders, but Las Vegas has looked better defensively -- even if the recent games indicate otherwise. Either way, all signs point towards this game being a tight contest. From a moneyline and a spread perspective, this is one of the closest games in Week 11 -- the Bengals are favored by just one point while edging the Raiders -115 to -105 in the moneyline -- and it’s increasingly hard to find a favorite here. Don’t be surprised if this contest ends up being a tight affair that goes down to the wire, but the Bengals have the better offense compared to the Raiders and that might be enough to see them come away with the victory.

Dallas Cowboys vs Kansas City Chiefs

The Dallas Cowboys have one of the best teams in the NFL this season and own a dynamic offense where names such as Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb, Ezekiel Elliott, and Amari Cooper all stand out, but they will face one of their toughest tests of the campaign when playing against the Kansas City Chiefs, the AFC representative in each of the last two Super Bowls and a team that’s on the rise thanks to the uptick in the play of their star quarterback, Patrick Mahomes. The Cowboys are 7-2-0 this season and comfortably lead the NFC East while also going 3-1 on the road so far -- they’re coming off a 43-3 win over the Atlanta Falcons and have won four of their last five. As for the Chiefs, they’re at the top of the AFC West with a 6-4-0 record and are riding a three-game winning streak following their 41-14 win over the Las Vegas Raiders last weekend. Just like the Cowboys, they’ve also gone 4-1 in their last five contests. The Chiefs might be playing at home and could be on the rise, but the home-field advantage is the only thing they have in their favor in this matchup. Despite being tabbed as favorites by -2.5 points, the Cowboys have the better offense and the better defense. That should be enough to tab them as favorites ahead of this contest.

Arizona Cardinals vs Seattle Seahawks

The Arizona Cardinals might not be undefeated anymore but still sit at the top of the NFC West with an 8-2-0 record, though it might be time to start getting worried considering their two losses have come over their last three contests. Arizona is coming off a 34-10 loss against the Carolina Panthers the last time out, but they’ve still gone 3-2 in their last five games and the team knows a win is mandatory here if they don’t want to lose the top spot in the division. They have a perfect opponent to bounce back, though, as the Seattle Seahawks have won just three games this season (3-6-0) and sit at the bottom of the NFC West while already thinking about what might happen next season. As if the losing record wasn’t enough, the Seahawks were shut out last week (17-0 against the Green Bay Packers) and they’ve also lost four of their last five games. The Cardinals are favorites by a rather slim -2.5 points perhaps because they’ve lost of their last three and also because they’ll be playing on the road, but they’re a far better team than the Seahawks. Expect Arizona to come away with the win, especially since Kyler Murray is likely to return under center.

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Los Angeles Chargers

The Pittsburgh Steelers are 5-3-1 this season and are coming off what can only be described as an embarrassing result since they recorded a tie against the Detroit Lions, arguably the worst team in the NFL this year, in a game that was full of errors and sloppiness on both sides of the ball. Pittsburgh still remains undefeated in their last five contests, however, as they’ve gone 4-0-1 in that span -- this is a marked improvement over their slow start to the season. Los Angeles Chargers are 5-4-0 on the season and while they’ve looked good at times, it’s fair to say they’ve also been slumping in recent weeks with a 2-3 record in their last five contests while coming off a disappointing 27-20 loss against the Minnesota Vikings. The Chargers have gone 2-3 at home as well, which is not encouraging against a Steelers team that has gone 2-1 on the road. The Steelers won’t have Ben Roethlisberger and have been struggling on offense despite their recent rise, as they score just 19.7 points per contest. The Chargers have the edge of playing at home and they also score at a more consistent rate than Pittsburgh (24.3 points per tilt). That should be enough to believe the Chargers are favorites here, something that’s backed up by the moneyline (-270 to Pittsburgh’s +220) and the spread (-6).

New York Giants vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The New York Giants have gone just 3-6-0 this season, but they’ve shown signs of being on the rise of late with two wins over their last three contests, including a 23-16 victory over the Las Vegas Raiders last week. New York has been struggling badly on offense this season, though, as they’ve scored just 19.9 points per game -- but they’ve scored 20 or more points in three of their last five contests. However, will that be enough to potentially pull the upset against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers? The reigning Super Bowl champions have lost two games in a row and are coming off a 29-19 defeat against the Washington Football Team, but they remain at the top of the NFC South standings with a 6-3-0 record and have one of the best offenses in football, led by the likes of Tom Brady, Leonard Fournette, Antonio Brown, Mike Evans and Rob Gronkowski, just to name a few. Despite the losing streak, Tampa Bay has gone 3-2 in its last five contests. There’s no question the Buccaneers are massive favorites entering this matchup, as they have a massive -11-point advantage on the spread -- one of the largest in this Week -- and also edge the moneyline by -550 to New York’s +400. Tampa Bay should be just too much for New York, especially considering they’re still undefeated when playing at home this year (4-0).

How Do BetQL's NFL Picks Work?

Our NFL picks model analyzes dozens of data points to give you winning picks each and every week. The table above is showing you exactly which side the NFL expert picks are coming in on, and is updated throughout the week so make sure you come back closer to kick off so you can see exactly which side all the experts are betting. Our NFL model works through and simulates every single game thousands of times, and then gives the most likely outcome for each game. The model adapts with each week, using real data and analytics for each team and player to give the most accurate predictions around for every single game, every single week. Each pick will include analysis on how the model projected its bet, as well as where the model would have the game lined. You also get the picks faster, because our model begins working on them as soon as the line opens. With BetQL, there is no more worrying about which games to bet on during the NFL season. We even adapt in-game, so you can find the best value while the ball is in the air. We have you covered for every game, from the first kickoff of the season until the last second ticks off the clock in the Super Bowl. No other sports betting service can get you the picks faster and with a higher winning percentage than BetQL, meaning we will keep you ahead of the bookmakers all season long. If you want to start making the most informed NFL picks and getting the best closing line value around, then subscribe to BetQL and start beating the books.

When Do BetQL's NFL Picks Come Out?

At BetQL all of our NFL picks are released the second the odds, lines, and point spreads are available. Our model takes the betting data and instantly churns out a pick for every game and every bet type, so if your sportsbook has a line you know we have a pick for that game. Although we have picks against the spread the second they are available that doesn't mean our picks are set in stone for the week. The great part about BetQL's NFL picks is they update in real time. If the sportsbook drastically changes the odds of a game our model takes that into account and updates our pick. If there is injury news right before kickoff that will change the outcome of the game our pick model reacts instantly and updates the star rating. Whether you like to make your picks early in the week on Monday morning or wait until right before kickoff on Sunday afternoon, BetQL has you covered.

NFL Expert Picks

If you are searching for NFL picks from the experts you have come to the right place. BetQL has everything you need to know which sides the experts are betting in every single game and every bet type. BetQL makes it easy to see which side the people who make NFL expert picks are backing. You will see the Pro Betting % above that shows which bets the experts like for today, this weekend, and next week. Stop spending your time searching out experts individual picks on a handful of games when BetQL has NFL picks for not only every game but every bet type. No matter how you like to bet on football BetQL has the NFL picks for you. Not only do we have our computer models picks on each game every week, but we have a team of experts working throughout the season to help you make your bets. This is a team of real people who work each week to crunch the numbers and do their own research to find you the best value on certain games. But that’s not where the options stop with BetQL. We have all the betting data you need from the sports books to figure out where the money is going, from public money percentage to expert money. This lets you see where the big bets are being placed, and which side the expert bettors are on. Placing wagers is never easy, and winning involves having all the best information before betting a game. BetQL gives you many options, so you are never stuck with just one way to bet.

One of the best ways, and most profitable ways, to bet the NFL is by looking at the expert action. These numbers will tell you where all the huge tickets are going on a game, compared to where the small wagers are being placed. For example, one team may have a huge number of tickets on them compiling of 90% of the total bets placed on that game for that type of wager, while the other team only has 10%. However, that 10% team may have over 70% of the total money bet on the game, meaning that the bets placed on that team are very large amounts of money. This lets you separate the more inexperienced bettors from the big cats that are placing massive amounts of money on bets every single night. These gamblers are usually expert bettors, people that gamble for a living and have inside sources that help them win bets. We have this data via our BetQL model that tells us the Sharp %, making sure you know where the pros are betting each and every game.

Make sure if you are following our NFL picks that you take advantage of the betting offers from sportsbooks in your state. In legal states the sportsbooks are offering free money and bets to gain you as a new customer. Sign up for a new sportsbook and follow our expert picks for the week.

NFL Picks Against the Spread

At BetQL, we know that sports bettors want the most options possible at their disposal before they place their hard-earned money on an NFL game. Not only do we have our computer models picks on each game every week, but we have a team of experts working throughout the season to help you make your bets. This is a team of real people who work each week to crunch the numbers and do their own research to find you the best value on certain games. But that’s not where the options stop with BetQL. We have all the betting data you need from the sports books to figure out where the money is going, from public money percentage to sharp money. This lets you see where the big bets are being placed, and which side the sharp bettors are on. Placing wagers is never easy, and winning involves having all the best information before betting a game. BetQL gives you many options, so you are never stuck with just one way to bet.

One of the best ways, and most profitable ways, to bet the NFL is by looking at the sharp action. These numbers will tell you where all the huge tickets are going on a game, compared to where the small wagers are being placed. For example, one team may have a huge number of tickets on them compiling of 90% of the total bets placed on that game for that type of wager, while the other team only has 10%. However, that 10% team may have over 70% of the total money bet on the game, meaning that the bets placed on that team are very large amounts of money. This lets you separate the more inexperienced bettors from the big cats that are placing massive amounts of money on bets every single night. These gamblers are usually sharp bettors, people that gamble for a living and have inside sources that help them win bets. We have this data via our BetQL model that tells us the Sharp %, making sure you know where the pros are betting each and every game.

How Bet the NFL Against the Spread

If you are a die-hard sports bettor, you probably know that a majority of the action in the NFL is against the spread. Much like the college game, this is the most common way that sports bettors bet on football games. Unlike money line bets where you simply pick the outright winner of each game, the spread allows you to bet on the final score of each game. Will the favorite win by x many points, or will the underdog stay within that many points when the final score is decided? What this does is allow people to bet without having to pay a large amount on favorites, or allow them to pick the underdog without having them win the game outright. Usually, lines for spread betting are fairly even and most start out at -110 both ways. This line increases or decreases depending on how much money is going to a certain side of the spread. If everyone is betting on the favorite at -110 to win the game by at least x number of points, the line will move up, costing bettors more to bet that side. The same will happen if all the money comes in on the underdog. Eventually, the actual number of points the team has to cover will increase or decrease depending on where the money goes. BetQL will have you covered all NFL season picking games against the spread, but you should always be informed as to what each bet means. Below you will find an example of betting against the spread.

Example: Chicago Bears (+7, -110) vs. Green Bay Packers (-7, -110)

In this example from one of the NFL’s greatest rivalries, Green Bay is favored by 7 points over Chicago. That means that if you bet on Green Bay, they would have to beat Chicago by at least 8 points for you to win this bet. A win of exactly 7 would be a push, and you would simply get your money back. A bet on Chicago here does not mean that they have to beat Green Bay, rather, they just have to keep the game within 7 points when the final score is announced. Unlike betting this number with Green Bay, if the game is decided by exactly 7 points, you will still win this bet and collect your winnings. Chicago can also win outright for you to win this bet, all that matters is that they do not lose by more than 7 points and you will win.

Now for the second part, the actual odds you have to pay to make the bet. This is fairly simple to understand once you know what the numbers mean. In this instance, both spreads are listed as -110. What this simply means is that in order to win $100, you must bet $110 dollars. The amounts do not have to be this small or large either, as it would mean the same thing with any amount. An $11 wager would win you $10, while an $1100 dollar wager would win you $1000, and so on. This extra price you have to pay is called “vigor” or “juice” on a line. Think of it like a tax you are having to pay the books to place your bet.

There are times when you will occasionally see a “plus-money” line with a spread bet, however, that is very rare. If you do see one, it will simply have a “+” instead of a “-“ in front of the number. Let’s say the number is +160. What this means is that if you bet $100 on this line, you would win $160. So you are not having to pay a tax at all, and instead, you are getting a much higher payout. Lines like these are always on a bet that is more unlikely to win, so you will have to be okay with the risk that involves being in the unfavorable situation.

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