Jets vs Steelers
The Jets might be 0-3, but the sharps aren’t ready to give up on them just yet, at least not as 3.5-point underdogs against the Steelers this week. They are hoping to get Zach Wilson back at quarterback this week, although Joe Flacco hasn’t been all that bad, averaging 300 passing yards per game in three games. With the emergence of rookie wide receiver Garrett Wilson and rookie running back Breece Hall averaging 5.3 yards per carry, the Jets have more offensive playmakers than they did a year ago. That surely creates some hope that the Jets can be more competitive moving forward.
That being said, some of the sharps might be picking against the Steelers more so than they are siding with the Jets. For all intents and purposes, the Steelers should be 0-3. Even though they forced five turnovers in Week 1, if the Bengals weren’t relying on a backup holder late in the game, Pittsburgh would have lost. The Steelers couldn’t beat the Patriots at home a couple of weeks ago, so being favored in a game, even against the Jets, isn’t the most logical idea. Even if the Pittsburgh defense is holding up its end of the bargain, the offense is going nowhere with Mitch Trubisky right now. He’s averaging just 5.5 yards per pass, which is also limiting the running room for Najee Harris, who is gaining just 3.2 yards per carry. With the offense struck in neutral under Trubisky, the sharps aren’t buying that the Steelers can win and cover more than a field goal against the Jets.
Seahawks vs Lions
Even though they are 1-2 on the season, the Detroit Lions have surely earned some respect this season, at least as a team that ranks second in points scored. However, they haven’t earned enough respect from the sharps for them to back Detroit as a 4.5-point favorite against the Seahawks. Part of the problem is that D’Andre Swift is battling a shoulder injury that could cause him to miss this week’s game. The Lions rank third in the NFL in rushing through three weeks with Swift being the biggest factor in making that happen. Far more would fall on the shoulders of the enigmatic Jared Goff if Swift isn’t able to play. Of course, the other reason the sharps are fading the Lions is that they rank last in the league defensively, allowing 31 points per game. In fact, Detroit has allowed a minimum of 27 points in each game this season, making it hard to cover 4.5 points.
Meanwhile, the Seahawks have probably been a little better than most expected. They pulled off an upset of Denver in Week 1 and nearly held on for a win over the Falcons last week. Of course, the Seahawks are deeply flawed with a running game that’s going nowhere. But Geno Smith has been adequate at quarterback, which is better than most expected before the season. The Seahawks also have the dynamic duo of Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf at wide receiver. Against what has been a porous Detroit defense, Lockett and Metcalf have a chance to do some damage, helping to make Seattle a good pick in the eyes of the sharps as a 4.5-point underdog.
Bears vs Giants
Even the sharps couldn’t have predicted that the Week 4 game between the Bears and Giants would involve a pair of 2-1 teams. However, most sharps still aren’t buying the Bears, as Chicago’s wins have come against the Texans and the 49ers in a downpour. Justin Fields has gotten off to a terrible start, averaging under 100 passing yards per game while also taking 10 sacks in three games. He also has more interceptions than touchdown passes. Even with the Bears showcasing one of the better rushing attacks in the league, their ground game is being largely negated by an abysmal passing game. That has the sharps skeptical about taking the Bears to get a positive result on the road this week.
Of course, the sharps aren’t quite all-in on the Giants. Their two wins this season have come by a combined four points, and now they’re being asked to cover at least a field goal against Chicago. Daniel Jones and the passing game haven’t been much better than what Fields has done for the Bears. But the Giants have an ace up their sleeve in Saquon Barkley, who is averaging six yards per carry and over 105 yards per game. There’s no question that he’ll be the best player on the field in this game. With the Giants being solid defensively thus far and playing at home, that could be enough with Barkley leading the way for the G-Men to get to 3-1 and cover a field goal against the Bears, as many sharps are anticipating.
Here you will find BetQL's free NFL picks for today and our NFL picks for this week. Each week BetQL will highlight our free games and give away our NFL picks against the spread. Each week will do a deep dive into our free NFL picks but also take a look at which side the experts are betting early in the week. Although this page is mostly focused on NFL picks against the spread, BetQL has betting data for every game and every bet type throughout the year. If you bet against the spread that is great but if you are looking for moneyline picks or over under picks we have you covered there too. Keep reading below for picks against the spread from our favorite games this week.
Our NFL picks model analyzes dozens of data points to give you winning picks each and every week. The table above is showing you exactly which side the NFL expert picks are coming in on, and is updated throughout the week so make sure you come back closer to kick off so you can see exactly which side all the experts are betting. Our NFL model works through and simulates every single game thousands of times, and then gives the most likely outcome for each game. The model adapts with each week, using real data and analytics for each team and player to give the most accurate predictions around for every single game, every single week. Each pick will include analysis on how the model projected its bet, as well as where the model would have the game lined. You also get the picks faster, because our model begins working on them as soon as the line opens. With BetQL, there is no more worrying about which games to bet on during the NFL season. We even adapt in-game, so you can find the best value while the ball is in the air. We have you covered for every game, from the first kickoff of the season until the last second ticks off the clock in the Super Bowl. No other sports betting service can get you the picks faster and with a higher winning percentage than BetQL, meaning we will keep you ahead of the bookmakers all season long. If you want to start making the most informed NFL picks and getting the best closing line value around, then subscribe to BetQL and start beating the books.
At BetQL all of our NFL picks are released the second the odds, lines, and point spreads are available. Our model takes the betting data and instantly churns out a pick for every game and every bet type, so if your sportsbook has a line you know we have a pick for that game. Although we have picks against the spread the second they are available that doesn't mean our picks are set in stone for the week. The great part about BetQL's NFL picks is they update in real time. If the sportsbook drastically changes the odds of a game our model takes that into account and updates our pick. If there is injury news right before kickoff that will change the outcome of the game our pick model reacts instantly and updates the star rating. Whether you like to make your picks early in the week on Monday morning or wait until right before kickoff on Sunday afternoon, BetQL has you covered.
If you are searching for NFL picks from the experts you have come to the right place. BetQL has everything you need to know which sides the experts are betting in every single game and every bet type. BetQL makes it easy to see which side the people who make NFL expert picks are backing. You will see the Pro Betting % above that shows which bets the experts like for today, this weekend, and next week. Stop spending your time searching out experts individual picks on a handful of games when BetQL has NFL picks for not only every game but every bet type. No matter how you like to bet on football BetQL has the NFL picks for you. Not only do we have our computer models picks on each game every week, but we have a team of experts working throughout the season to help you make your bets. This is a team of real people who work each week to crunch the numbers and do their own research to find you the best value on certain games. But that’s not where the options stop with BetQL. We have all the betting data you need from the sports books to figure out where the money is going, from public money percentage to expert money. This lets you see where the big bets are being placed, and which side the expert bettors are on. Placing wagers is never easy, and winning involves having all the best information before betting a game. BetQL gives you many options, so you are never stuck with just one way to bet.
One of the best ways, and most profitable ways, to bet the NFL is by looking at the expert action. These numbers will tell you where all the huge tickets are going on a game, compared to where the small wagers are being placed. For example, one team may have a huge number of tickets on them compiling of 90% of the total bets placed on that game for that type of wager, while the other team only has 10%. However, that 10% team may have over 70% of the total money bet on the game, meaning that the bets placed on that team are very large amounts of money. This lets you separate the more inexperienced bettors from the big cats that are placing massive amounts of money on bets every single night. These gamblers are usually expert bettors, people that gamble for a living and have inside sources that help them win bets. We have this data via our BetQL model that tells us the Sharp %, making sure you know where the pros are betting each and every game.
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At BetQL, we know that sports bettors want the most options possible at their disposal before they place their hard-earned money on an NFL game. Not only do we have our computer models picks on each game every week, but we have a team of experts working throughout the season to help you make your bets. This is a team of real people who work each week to crunch the numbers and do their own research to find you the best value on certain games. But that’s not where the options stop with BetQL. We have all the betting data you need from the sports books to figure out where the money is going, from public money percentage to sharp money. This lets you see where the big bets are being placed, and which side the sharp bettors are on. Placing wagers is never easy, and winning involves having all the best information before betting a game. BetQL gives you many options, so you are never stuck with just one way to bet.
One of the best ways, and most profitable ways, to bet the NFL is by looking at the sharp action. These numbers will tell you where all the huge tickets are going on a game, compared to where the small wagers are being placed. For example, one team may have a huge number of tickets on them compiling of 90% of the total bets placed on that game for that type of wager, while the other team only has 10%. However, that 10% team may have over 70% of the total money bet on the game, meaning that the bets placed on that team are very large amounts of money. This lets you separate the more inexperienced bettors from the big cats that are placing massive amounts of money on bets every single night. These gamblers are usually sharp bettors, people that gamble for a living and have inside sources that help them win bets. We have this data via our BetQL model that tells us the Sharp %, making sure you know where the pros are betting each and every game.
If you are a die-hard sports bettor, you probably know that a majority of the action in the NFL is against the spread. Much like the college game, this is the most common way that sports bettors bet on football games. Unlike money line bets where you simply pick the outright winner of each game, the spread allows you to bet on the final score of each game. Will the favorite win by x many points, or will the underdog stay within that many points when the final score is decided? What this does is allow people to bet without having to pay a large amount on favorites, or allow them to pick the underdog without having them win the game outright. Usually, lines for spread betting are fairly even and most start out at -110 both ways. This line increases or decreases depending on how much money is going to a certain side of the spread. If everyone is betting on the favorite at -110 to win the game by at least x number of points, the line will move up, costing bettors more to bet that side. The same will happen if all the money comes in on the underdog. Eventually, the actual number of points the team has to cover will increase or decrease depending on where the money goes. BetQL will have you covered all NFL season picking games against the spread, but you should always be informed as to what each bet means. Below you will find an example of betting against the spread.
Example: Chicago Bears (+7, -110) vs. Green Bay Packers (-7, -110)
In this example from one of the NFL’s greatest rivalries, Green Bay is favored by 7 points over Chicago. That means that if you bet on Green Bay, they would have to beat Chicago by at least 8 points for you to win this bet. A win of exactly 7 would be a push, and you would simply get your money back. A bet on Chicago here does not mean that they have to beat Green Bay, rather, they just have to keep the game within 7 points when the final score is announced. Unlike betting this number with Green Bay, if the game is decided by exactly 7 points, you will still win this bet and collect your winnings. Chicago can also win outright for you to win this bet, all that matters is that they do not lose by more than 7 points and you will win.
Now for the second part, the actual odds you have to pay to make the bet. This is fairly simple to understand once you know what the numbers mean. In this instance, both spreads are listed as -110. What this simply means is that in order to win $100, you must bet $110 dollars. The amounts do not have to be this small or large either, as it would mean the same thing with any amount. An $11 wager would win you $10, while an $1100 dollar wager would win you $1000, and so on. This extra price you have to pay is called “vigor” or “juice” on a line. Think of it like a tax you are having to pay the books to place your bet.
There are times when you will occasionally see a “plus-money” line with a spread bet, however, that is very rare. If you do see one, it will simply have a “+” instead of a “-“ in front of the number. Let’s say the number is +160. What this means is that if you bet $100 on this line, you would win $160. So you are not having to pay a tax at all, and instead, you are getting a much higher payout. Lines like these are always on a bet that is more unlikely to win, so you will have to be okay with the risk that involves being in the unfavorable situation.
BetQL is more than just NFL football picks, our model has everything you need to successfully bet on college football. This time of year we have football on 12+ hours every Saturday and Sunday so make sure you are maximizing your profits with BetQL. When you subscribe to BetQL at the highest level you will get college football best bets from our model, picks for every game from our experts, a line movement tracker, consensus picks for the week, 1st half picks against the spread, and over under picks. No matter how you want to bet on football BetQL has you covered will all of our analysis, picks, and data. Bet a better bettor with BetQL