Marlins vs Padres (O/U: 8 runs)
The San Diego Padres take one of the most potent lineups in baseball to South Beach for the weekend to face the Miami Marlins. However, after the teams combined for just five runs in the series opener on Thursday, the over/under for Friday’s game is just eight runs. But will both teams cooperate in playing a low-scoring game?
One factor pointing to a pitcher’s duel is Joe Musgrove getting the start for San Diego. While he’s somehow just 5-7 on the season, Musgrove has posted a 3.14 ERA this season. However, he’s undoubtedly experiencing a rough patch in his season. Over his last four starts, his ERA has jumped from 2.22 to 3.14. Musgrove has allowed at least four runs in three of those four starts.
Of course, Musgrove could be in luck on Friday when he faces a lackluster Miami lineup, which is far weaker than the opposing lineups he’s faced in his recent starts. In their eight games since the all-star break, the Marlins have been held to three runs or less six times, which has become par for the course in 2021. Starling Marte has gotten off to a great start in the second half to improve his trade value. But the rest of the team has gone into a slump, leading to such low run totals over the past week.
On the bright side, rookie Zach Thompson will start for the Marlins on Friday. Through the first six starts of his career, the 27-year-old is 2-2 with a 1.93 ERA. He’s been a pleasant surprise for Miami despite averaging less than five innings per start. Thompson has tended to run into trouble the third time through the lineup, but he’s thrown at least four scoreless innings in half of his six starts this year.
The obvious caveat is that he hasn’t faced many lineups as deep as the San Diego lineup. While the Padres have scored just 12 runs in their last four games, they also scored 41 runs in three games in Washington last weekend. Fernando Tatis, Manny Machado, and Tommy Pham are showing no signs of slowing down early in the second half. Even Jurickson Profar and Wil Myers have been heating up over the last week, adding to the incredible power and depth the Padres have at their disposal.
But while the Padres are a threat to score a lot of runs on any given night, the BetQL model still favors fewer than eight runs being scored in this game. Thompson has been so impressive early in his career that he should keep the Padres under wraps for at least four or five innings. Meanwhile, Musgrove’s recent struggles aren’t enough to outweigh a dreadful Miami lineup that’s going through a team-wide slump. Even if the Padres have a decent game offensively, the Marlins may not be able to scratch out more than one or two runs. According to the BetQL projections, the under is the better option in this game.
Pick: Under 8 Runs
Astros vs Rangers (Over/Under: 8.5 runs)
A battle over the state of Texas commences on Friday as the Rangers hit the road to take on the Houston Astros. They say that everything is bigger in Texas, although the over/under for Friday’s game between the first and last-place teams in the AL West is only set at 8.5 runs. Will it be a high-scoring game or are the Rangers and Astros poised to deliver a pitcher’s duel to begin their series?
Young lefty Kolby Allard will have a lot to say about that. The 23-year-old is slowly finding his way in the majors despite going 2-7 over nine starts and 10 relief appearances this year. Allard has posted a solid 4.44 ERA over his nine starts. On the other hand, he got knocked around for five runs over 5.1 innings by the Blue Jays in his last start.
Facing the Houston lineup won’t be much easier for Allard. While the Astros have yet to get in a groove coming out of the all-star break, they still have one of the deepest lineups in baseball. Michael Brantley and Jose Altuve have led the way since the break, but Kyle Tucker has also chipped in a couple of home runs. Outside of Alex Bregman, the entire Houston lineup is healthy, so the Astros won’t be easy for a young pitcher to navigate.
On the other side, Jake Odorizzi is the scheduled starter for Houston. He got off to a rough start but has quietly gotten his act together. Granted, his first start after the break didn’t go well, giving up four runs to the White Sox in just 3.1 innings. But Odorizzi had a good stretch before the break, even pitching to a 2.45 ERA during the month of June. That includes four scoreless innings against the Rangers.
As for the Rangers, things are not going well at the moment. Texas lost back-to-back games before the break and is winless in seven games since the break. The Rangers have scored just 10 runs in those seven games, getting shut out three times during that stretch. The only silver lining is that the Texas lineup started to come alive with five runs on Thursday. However, star players like Joey Gallo and Adolis Garcia have been ice-cold coming out of the break, so it’s hard to believe that the Rangers will start to get going.
Nevertheless, eight runs is a low over/under for any game involving the Astros. On a good night, Houston’s lineup could easily score that many runs on its own. Plus, neither team in this game has a particularly strong bullpen, which means that either the Rangers or Astros could pile on the runs late in the game. On the other hand, if Allard pitches well against a Houston lineup that’s not quite clicking right now, it’s easy to envision this game ending with fewer than eight runs.
The wins may not be coming for the Twins this year but their fans continue to be entertained by high-scoring games. Oddsmakers have had more than enough time to make the adjustment, but the Twins are still going over the run total in 62.5% of their games. The Minnesota offense has continued to improve this season with Josh Donaldson, Max Kepler, and others coming alive over the last month or so. Even with oddsmakers planning on the Twins playing high-scoring games, the Minnesota lineup continues to produce to keep the Twins the best bet on the run total.
Of course, the Minnesota pitching staff deserves a lot of the credit (or blame) for the team being involved in so many high-scoring games. The Twins are giving up 5.3 runs per game on the season. Only the Orioles and Diamondbacks have given up more. Starters like J.A. Happ and Kenta Maeda have fallen short of expectations while Minnesota’s young pitchers haven’t provided the lift the Twins have needed, giving up runs in high volumes, which has continued to make Minnesota the best team in the big leagues at going over the run total.
Los Angeles Angels
You can take Mike Trout away from the Angels but you can’t take away the team’s propensity for playing high-scoring games. The Halos have had plenty of ups and downs this season, although they’ve shown great consistency in going over the run total. Even with Anthony Rendon missing a lot of time due to injury, the Angels have continued to churn out a lot of runs thanks to Shohei Ohtani’s 34 home runs. Jared Walsh has chipped in 22 long balls of his own. But the real key for the Angels has been the surprising contributions of players like David Fletcher and Jose Iglesias to help keep the offensive moving with the team’s star players hurt.
Of course, let’s not forget the LA pitching staff, which has contributed to the Angels conceding 5.2 runs per game. Ohtani and Alex Cobb have been the bright spots in the rotation while Dylan Bundy, Andrew Heaney, and Griffin Canning are all rocking an ERA over 5.00. All three are better than what they’ve shown, and because oddsmakers tend to underestimate the Angels offensively given their injuries, the Angels remain an excellent bet to go over the run total.
Whether they are making a surprise run to get back in the playoff picture or going through a prolonged slump, the Nationals always seem to be playing low-scoring games. Even with the oddsmakers being able to adjust to this season-long trend, Washington’s games have stayed under the run total over 60% of the time. With Stephen Strasburg sidelined for most of the year and Patrick Corbin going through ups and downs, the Nats haven’t been as dominant on the mound this year as in the past. But Corbin has shaken off his rough start and Max Scherzer continues to perform like an ace to lead the staff.
At the same time, Washington’s lineup has rarely been able to get hot and stay hot. For a few weeks, Kyle Schwarber was hitting a home run in almost every at-bat. But since he went to the IL in early July, the team’s power has disappeared. The Nationals are struggling to find consistent production outside of Juan Soto and Trea Turner, which is why they are still averaging just 4.3 runs per game. Even getting to four runs has been a challenge for Washington this year, and so the Nats remain a safe bet to fall short of the run total.
One of the best ways to bet on baseball is to bet the over/under, but unless you are watching every game for each team it is hard to know which side of the bet will hit. BetQL is here to help you make better MLB over under bets every day for every game. Our MLB over under model analyzes dozens of data points to provide you with our best bet for every game, every day. Check back tomorrow for more MLB over under picks and our analysis on the bet.
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Not only does BetQL provide you with MLB over under picks but you can also see our full score predictions for every game. Our model simulates each game 10,000 times and provides you with a score prediction that you can use to formulate an over under pick. If you have a good gut feeling that a specific game will hit the over you can take a look at our over under prediction and see our star rating to figure out if you actually want to bet that game. Not only can you see our full game score prediction but we even provide as score after five innings. With BetQL you can even dive deep into our historical over under data to see how teams have been performing throughout the year. On each of our game pages you will see the schedule summary to see how each team has performed game by game and on that table you will also see the over under results. If a team has been mashing the ball and hitting the over game, after game, you may not even need our over under predictions to make your bet. Stop betting with your gut and let over MLB over under model help you build your bank roll for the 2021 season.
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Betting the total for a baseball game is a bet on how many total runs will be scored in a game. A majority of bettors call this bet type an MLB over under and the lines are typically between 6 and 13 runs. There can be a “push” if the total amount of points scored in the game exactly equals the total. If you aren't familiar with lines and don’t understand how MLB odds work make sure you head over to our page on that topic to get caught up.
MLB Over Under Example:
The Rockies-Padres match up has a run total that is 11.5 runs. While you think that there will be plenty of runs scored, you don’t feel confident on the total going over 11.5 so you bet the under. After the whole game is played the score is Rockies 5 - Padres 3. Since the total runs scored in the game ended up being 8 and the over under line was set at 11.5 the under bet hits.
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