Karpuc: Joel Embiid Is Going To Go Off On Saturday Night

The Pick: Joel Embiid Over 32.5 Points vs. Kings 

The Philadelphia 76ers are double-digit home favorites against the Sacramento Kings on Saturday night and BetQL is projecting the Sixers to score 117 points. 

A large chunk of that production will come from superstar center Joel Embiid, who is projected to score 36 points, over the 32.5-point total that’s listed across most sportsbooks right now. 

Embiid has gone over this number in four of his last five games and despite the fact that he was double-teamed, triple-teamed and individually defended by Anthony Davis, he still put up 26 in that one. His other outputs in the five-game stretch: 42, 38, 40 and 50 points. Overall in the last five games, Embiid has averaged 39.2 points per game on 55.6% shooting (69-134) and 80.3% free throw shooting (53-66) and the 76ers have won four of those five games as a result. 

He’s attempted 20+ field goals in seven consecutive games and leads all NBA players with a 36.9% usage rate. Over his last five games, that’s ballooned all the way to 46.3% (8.1% over the next-highest mark in that span). 

Not only all of that, but no team has been worse defensively than the Kings this month (118.5 Defensive Rating) and they’ve been especially terrible over their last 5 games (126.6 Defensive Rating), allowing 121, 128, 133, 133 and 118 points, respectively.

At this point, it’s difficult not to expect Embiid to put up huge scoring numbers in any matchup, but in this one, he should eat. I wouldn’t be shocked if he surpasses this mark by the end of the third quarter (or even by halftime). 

Karpuc’s Published NBA Picks: 2021-2022 Season (19-10, 65.5%)

❌ Friday 1/28: Pistons +3.5 at Magic (Result: Pistons Lost By 16)

☑️ Thursday 1/27: Warriors -5.5 vs. Timberwolves (Result: Warriors Won By 9)

☑️ Wednesday 1/26: Hawks -7.5 vs. Kings (Result: Hawks Won By 17)

☑️ Tuesday 1/25: Nikola Jokic Over 8.5 Assists (Result: 9)

☑️ Monday 1/24: Knicks-Cavaliers Under 204 (Result: 188)

❌ Friday 1/21: Bucks -8.5 vs. Bulls (Result: Bucks Won By 4)

☑️ Thursday 1/20: Suns-Mavericks Under 216.5 (Result: 210)

❌ Wednesday 1/19: James Harden Over 10.5 Assists (Result: 9)

❌ Tuesday 1/18: Pistons +15.5 at Warriors (Result: Pistons Lost By 16)

❌ Monday 1/17: Trail Blazers-Magic Over 215 (Result: 186)

❌ Friday 1/14: Raptors ML & Grizzlies ML Parlay (Result: Raptors & Grizzlies Lost)

☑️ Thursday 1/13: Grizzlies -4.5 vs. Timberwolves (Result: Grizzlies Won By 8)

❌ Wednesday 1/12: Spurs -6 vs. Rockets (Result: Spurs Lost By 4)

☑️ Tuesday 1/11: Grizzlies +100 ML vs. Warriors (Result: Grizzlies Won)

☑️ Monday 1/10: Bucks-Hornets Under 237.5 (Result: 202)

☑️ Friday 1/7: Raptors -11.5 vs. Jazz (Result: Raptors Won By 14)

☑️ Thursday 1/6: Pistons-Grizzlies Under 220 (Result: 206)

☑️ Wednesday 1/5: Hornets -9.5 vs. Pistons (Result: Hornets Won By 29)

❌ Tuesday 1/4: LeBron James Over 48.5 P&R&A (Result: 41)

☑️ Monday 1/3: Hawks-Blazers Over 226 (Result: 267)

☑️ Tuesday 12/28: Nuggets-Warriors Under 217.5 (Result: 167)

☑️ Wednesday 12/22: Thunder +5.5 vs. Nuggets (Result: Thunder Won By 14)

☑️ Tuesday 12/21: Suns -6.5 vs. Lakers (Result: Suns Won By 18

☑️ Monday 12/20: Thunder +8.5 vs. Grizzlies (Result: Thunder Won By 3)

☑️ Friday 12/17: LaMelo Ball & Damian Lillard 6+ 3s Combined (Result: 9)

☑️ Thursday 12/16: Pistons +10 at Pacers (Result: Pistons Lost By 9)

❌ Wednesday 12/15: Dewayne Dedmon Over 0.5 3s (Result: 0)

☑️ Tuesday 12/14: Raptors +8.5 at Nets (Result: Raptors Lost By 2)

❌ Monday 12/13: Hawks -11.5 vs. Rockets (Result: Hawks Lost By 6)