Karpuc: My Favorite Bet On Tuesday’s NBA Slate

This bet is standing out to me for many reasons

Tuesday’s Pick: Pistons +15.5 at Warriors

On the surface, backing the Pistons (10-32) against the Warriors (31-12) seems like an ill-informed proposition. However, there are many reasons to be on Detroit as 14.5-point underdogs. 

Despite their terrible overall record, Detroit has performed just slightly below average against the spread this season at 20-22 and have won and covered their last three games (against the Magic, Jazz and Raptors). The Pistons have also gone 8-4 ATS as a double-digit underdog this season.

Detroit has a couple of longer-term historical trends working in their favor in this situation as well. Over the last two seasons under Dwane Casey, Detroit has gone 21-10 ATS versus teams that outscored their opponents by an average of 3.0+ points per game (+10.0 units, 32.3% ROI) and 36-23 ATS against teams that make 46% or more of their field goal attempts (+10.7 units, 17.5% ROI). 

Draymond Green will miss this game due to injury and Stephen Curry sat out last game with a lingering hand issue. The hand issue may at least partially explain the stark downturn in Curry's shooting efficiency of late, but he will be back tonight.

Dating back to the Warriors' Christmas Day win over the Suns, Curry is averaging 21.4 points on 35.9% shooting from the field and 30.9% shooting from downtown. As a whole, the Warriors own the NBA’s 28th-ranked Offensive Rating over the last 10 games (11th overall on the season after their recent free-fall). In that same span, the Pistons rank 29th, one slot behind them, but it’s clear that Golden State is slumping at the moment.

NBA seasons can be rollercoasters. There are ups and downs for mostly every team. Right now, the Warriors are in a rut and I’m choosing to target them until they get out of it. 

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Previous Picks (6-3)

❌ Monday 1/17: Trail Blazers-Magic Over 215 

❌ Friday 1/14: Raptors ML & Grizzlies ML Parlay

☑️ Thursday 1/13: Grizzlies -4.5 vs. Timberwolves

❌ Wednesday 1/12: Spurs -6 vs. Rockets  

☑️ Tuesday 1/11: Grizzlies +100 ML vs. Warriors 

☑️ Monday 1/10: Bucks-Hornets Under 237.5

☑️ Friday 1/7: Raptors -11.5 vs. Jazz

☑️ Thursday 1/6: Pistons-Grizzlies Under 220

☑️ Wednesday 1/5: Hornets -9.5 vs. Pistons