MLB Consensus Picks
BetQL's MLB Consensus Pick of the Day:
Betting on baseball is not easy and it only gets harder for the playoffs, but luckily for you BetQL is here to help you with our consensus picks. Here you will find our free MLB consensus pick of the day where we let you peak behind the curtain and see all the data we have on this game, including which way the public betting is leaning. With a full BetQL subscription you can see our MLB public betting data for every single game and bet type. Knowing which way the public is betting could be the difference between a win and loss when it comes to October baseball, so stop making picks with your gut and start using BetQL's public betting data to get an edge on the sportsbooks. If you are wasting your time searching for consensus picks right before first pitch then look no further because you can find winning consensus picks everyday right here at BetQL.
MLB Consensus Pick:
MLB Public Betting Explained
When bettors talk about public betting they are referring to who the general public or the “average joes” are betting on for any given baseball game. You may hear the term public betting or consensus picks used but they are the same thing and they both show which side of a game the majority of bettors are tacking. Experienced baseball bettors look at MLB public betting percentages to figure out who novice bettors are taking and may choose to “fade the public”. Fading a pick is simply picking the opposite side so if the public is all over one team “fading the public” means a person would be betting on the opposite side. The strategy around “fading the public” is that most bettors bet with their feelings rather than the data, so looking at BetQL's MLB public betting percentages and betting the opposite side can be somewhat profitable. If a game has a high amount of tickets being placed the higher the likelihood that the public is betting the game, so be sure to check out that data from BetQL before you decide to “fade the public”. If betting with or against the public isn’t part of your baseball betting process check out our sharp page where you can find MLB expert picks.
MLB Consensus Picks
MLB consensus picks are an aggregate of who the public thinks will win any given game. Taking a look at the MLB consensus picks and public betting percentages can be an important part of anyone’s baseball betting strategy, but finding the data isn’t always easy. Finding MLB consensus picks can be difficult because you need data from all the sportsbook and most places do not have the ability to aggregate all of that data. BetQL works closely with the sportsbooks to show all of their relevant data to our users. With BetQL you can see MLB public betting data and figure out who the consensus pick is for any MLB game and any bet type.
MLB Public Betting Trends
Tracking MLB public betting trends is difficult and when you finally find all of the data you need it is most likely coming from a ton of different sources. BetQL has all the MLB public betting data you need and we have all the relevant data in one place. With BetQL you can create custom dashboards that specifically identify value bets based off MLB public betting data. For example you can add the percentage of public tickets or the percentage of public money to see which side the public is leaning. If you are actively fading the public and want to see all the MLB consensus picks in your dashboard you can easily create that to figure out which games to fade. Sign up for BetQL and start cashing more tickets!
MLB Public Betting Predictions
Houston Astros vs. Minnesota Twins
The Astros ended the season as the second-best team in the AL West, but they were far more disappointing than in past seasons. Some will point to the fact the Astros didn’t have the in-game video help to make adjustments over the course of every game, but the reality is that the Astros struggled badly at the plate, stumbling to a 29-31 record and finishing seven games behind the division winners, the Oakland Athletics. Houston went 20-8 at home and 9-23 on the road, and that shouldn’t bode well for their chances in this series since the Twins have the home-field advantage. To make things more complicated, the Astros were rather average according to most offensive metrics -- they averaged 4.65 runs per game while finishing as a below-average team in stats such as batting average (.240), on-base percentage (.312), and slugging (.408). George Springer was Houston’s top hitter with a .899 OPS while racking up 14 homers and 32 RBI. Meanwhile, their top pitcher was Zack Greinke, who went 3-3 with a 4.03 ERA, a 1.13 WHIP, and a 2.80 FIP. That said, top players such as Carlos Correa, Jose Altuve and Alex Bregman were far from being the players they were in past years. The Astros need them to wake up in the 2020 MLB Playoffs if they don’t want to suffer an early postseason exit.
The Twins were one of the best teams in the American League all season long and finished the 2020 MLB regular season at the top of the AL Central, arguably the toughest division in the American League. The Twins posted a 36-24 record, and the Tampa Bay Rays (40-20) were the only team that posted a better record in the entire AL. The Twins’ biggest strength during the regular was their pitching, as they were a Top 3 team according to most run-prevention stats -- they finished with the second-best mark in runs allowed per game (3.58) while allowing the third-lowest batting average (.232), the second-lowest on-base percentage (.301) and the lowest slugging percentage (.372) to opposing hitters. That was quite useful for Minnesota since they were a below-average offensive team, finishing with the sixth-lowest runs scored per game (4.48) during the regular season. The team’s top hitter was Nelson Cruz, who posted a .992 OPS while racking up 16 homers and 33 RBI, while their top pitcher was Kenta Maeda. The Japanese hurler went 6-1 while posting a 2.70 ERA, a 0.75 WHIP, and a 2.99 FIP across 38.2 innings.
Consensus Pick to Advance: Minnesota Twins
The White Sox won the first Wild Card spot in the American League and posted an impressive 35-25 record, which was quite good considering this is a team filled with young players who are only bound to get better. Anchored by AL MVP candidate Jose Abreu, Chicago got off to a strong start to the season and were one of the first teams to clinch a spot in the postseason, but there’s no question Chicago also ended the 2020 MLB season on the wrong foot - they lost nine of their last 12 games. The White Sox lied the success of their 2020 MLB season on their offense, as they finished the 2020 MLB season with the second-best offense in the American League -- they averaged a second-best 5.10 runs per game while also posting the second-best average in the AL -- .261 -- and the best slugging percentage in the American League (.453). Abreu was Chicago’s top hitter with a .987 OPS, 19 homers, and 60 RBI, while their top pitcher was Dallas Keuchel, who went 6-2 with a 1.99 ERA, a 1.09 WHIP, and a 3.07 FIP. Lucas Giolito had a 3.48 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP.
Oakland Athletics vs. Chicago White Sox
The Athletics were one of the biggest surprises in the American League during the 2020 MLB regular season and finished with the second-best record in the AL after notching 36 wins with only 24 losses -- only the Tampa Bay Rays, who went 40-20, finished with a higher win-total in the American League during the 2020 MLB season. They only averaged 4.57 runs scored per game, the ninth-best mark in the league, and finish in the bottom six -- AL teams only -- in stats such as slugging percentage and batting average, where they posted the second-worst record in the American League with a .225. However, the Athletics did an excellent job to prevent runs -- they only allowed 3.87 runs per game while limiting opposing hitters to a .240 average (seventh-best mark) and a .302 on-base percentage (third-best record in the American League). The Athletics will need their pitching more than ever in the Wild Card Round since the White Sox were one of the best hitting teams in the American League. The player to watch in the Athletics is one of their starting pitchers, Chris Bassitt, who posted a 5-2 record with a 2.29 ERA in 11 starts. Meanwhile, their top hitter was Robbie Grossman, who hit .241 with a .826 OPS. Those are decent numbers in this weak offense.
Consensus Pick to Advance: Chicago White Sox
Toronto Blue Jays vs Tampa Bay Rays
The Blue Jays finished the 2020 regular season slightly ahead of the schedule when it comes to their contending status and, despite featuring in the AL East with two contending teams such as the New York Yankees and the Tampa Bay Rays, they still finished with the second AL Wild Card thanks to a 32-28 record. The Blue Jays, who have one of the best collections of young hitting talent in the MLB, relied on their offense to secure a postseason berth. They finished the regular season scoring the third-most runs per game in the American League (5.03) and also finished in the Top 5 in both batting average (.255) and slugging percentage (.441). They allowed a whopping 5.20 runs per game (fourth-worst mark in the AL) and, while that might be worrying, they won six of their last eight regular season games and posted a 15-19 record on the road -- they’re good enough to potentially steal at least one game off the Rays. Their -10 run differential indicates the Rays overachieved a bit, but the MLB playoffs will show whether Toronto are ready to contend, of if they have to wait another year to become a consistent playoff team. Their best hitter during the 2020 MLB regular season was Teoscar Hernandez, who posted a .919 OPS with 16 homers and 34 RBI in 50 games, while their top pitcher was Hyun-Jin Ryu, who went 5-2 with a 2.69 ERA, a 1.15 WHIP and a 3.00 FIP across 67 innings of work.
The Rays ended with the best record in the American League after notching 40 wins in 60 games -- they also posted the second-best winning percentage in all of baseball, only behind the Los Angeles Dodgers, who ended with year with an astonishing 43-17 record. The Rays were a dominant team when it comes to both hitting and pitching when looking at their regular-season numbers. The Rays scored the sixth-most runs per game in the AL (4.82) and also posted the fourth-best on-base percentage in the American League with a .382 mark. As if that wasn’t enough, they allowed the third-fewest runs (3.82), the fourth-lowest slugging percentage (.391) and the fifth-worst batting average (.238) while going 20-9 at home. That bodes well for their chances here, as the Blue Jays had a losing record on the road. Tampa Bay’s +60 run differential was also tied for first in the American League alongside the Chicago White Sox. Tampa Bay’s best hitter was Brandon Lowe, who posted a .916 OPS, while Blake Snell was the team’s top starting pitcher -- he delivered a 3.24 ERA and a 4.34 FIP, as well as a 1.20 WHIP, in 50 innings across 11 starts.
Consensus Pick to Advance: Tampa Bay Rays
New York Yankees vs Cleveland Indians
The Yankees got off to a sizzling start this season, went through a slump, suffered several injuries -- Gleyber Torres, Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton all missed time due to injury -- and even flirted with finishing as one of the two Wild Card teams in the American League. However, the Yankees rightened the ship right when it mattered the most and, despite going 4-6 in their last 10 games, they still ended in second place of the AL East with a 33-27 record. That might feel as a disappointment given they started the season with eight wins in their first nine games, but New York overcame lots of adversity to finish with a playoff spot while posting the best offensive numbers in the American League. Aaron Boone’s men finished the 2020 MLB regular season leading the AL in runs scored per game (5.25) and also led the American League in on-base percentage (.342), while also finishing as a top-two offense in slugging (.447) and sixth in batting average (.247). The Yankees, who ended the year dropping six of their last eight games, were also sixth in runs allowed per game (4.50), so they can still win games from the mound -- even if their strength lies on the offense. Speaking of the mound, the Yankees will rely heavily in both Gerrit Cole (7-3, 2.84 ERA, 0.96 WHIP) and Masahiro Tanaka (3-3, 3.56 ERA, 1.17 WHIP) come playoff time. Their best hitter were, perhaps surprisingly, DJ LeMahieu -- he led the MLB in batting average with .364 -- and Luke Voit, who led the MLB in home runs with 22.
The Indians have lived through the same story year after year -- they deliver timely pitching and struggling on offense, but their pitching is usually good enough to reach the playoffs. That was the case once again in 2020, as the Indians finished the 2020 MLB regular season in second place of the AL Central with a 35-25 record and a +39 run differential that relied heavily on their pitching staff. Anchored by Shane Bieber, who looks like the favorite to win the AL Cy Young Award after posting a 8-1 record with a 1.63 ERA, a 0.87 WHIP and a 2.06 FIP, the Indians led the American League in several run-prevention stats such as runs allowed per game (3.48), opposing batting average (.223) and opposing on-base percentage (.288), while ranking second in opposing slugging percentage (.378). That allowed them to hide the fact that they scored the second-fewest runs per game (4.13) in the American League, while also being a bottom-five club in both batting average (.228) and slugging percentage (.372). The Indians did have a potential MVP candidate in Jose Ramirez, who posted a .993 OPS with 17 homers and 46 RBI, but their biggest strength is their pitching. They will need their arms to be at their best to have a shot against the Yankees.
Consensus Pick to Advance: New York Yankees
Cincinnati Reds vs Atlanta Braves
The Reds finally made a return to the 2020 MLB Playoffs -- for the first time since 2013 -- and they finished the 2020 MLB regular season with a 31-29 record, becoming one of four NL Central teams to reach the postseason. No other division in MLB was as represented in the postseason as this one. Cincinnati was slightly better at home (16-13) than on the road (15-16), and their pitching what was carried them to the playoffs if we look at their numbers from the 60-game MLB regular season. The Reds posted the worst collective batting average in the league with a .212 mark and scored the second-lowest runs per game (4.05) in the National League, while also finishing in the bottom five when it comes to on-base percentage (12th, .312). Their top hitter was Jesse Winker, who ended with 12 homers and a .932 OPS, and he was one of four players who racked up at least 10 homers in Cincinnati -- Eugenio Suarez, Nick Castellanos and Joey Votto were the others. Their pitching was stellar, however, as the only allowed 4.05 runs per game -- the fifth-best mark in the National League -- while also ending in the Top 5 in opposing batting average, OBP, and OPS. Their top hurler was Trevor Bauer, who is a strong Cy Young candidate after ending the 2020 MLB season with a 1.73 ERA and a 0.79 WHIP, both elite marks across all of baseball.
The Braves, on the other hand, were among the best teams in the National League and the numbers backed them up -- they won the AL East title with a 35-25 record and only the Los Angeles Dodgers, who went 43-17, and the San Diego Padres (37-23) clinched more wins than them. The Braves were particularly dominant at home, where they won 19 of 30 games, and that might prove to be benefitial for their chances in this Wild Card Round. One of Atlanta’s biggest strenghts was their offense, as they finished as a Top 3 team in most offensive categories -- they led the NL in collective on-base percentage while ranking second in average, slugging and runs scored per game (5.80) -- while posting a +60 run-differential, and that allowed them to hide an average pitching staff that was severely impacted by injuried across the entire season. The Braves will rely on their offense to go deep into the playoffs and that’s where names such as Freddie Freeman (13 HR, 53 RBI, 1.102 OPS), Marcell Ozuna (18 HR, 56 RBI, 1.067 OPS) and Ronald Acuna Jr. (14 HR, 29 RBI, .987 OPS) stand out. Their top pitcher was Max Fried, who had a 2.25 ERA in 11 starts.
Miami Marlins vs Chicago Cubs
The Marlins spent more than a decade without making it to the MLB Playoffs and will face a familiar opponent in the MLB Wild Card Round in the Chicago Cubs. The Marlins surprised everyone when they reached the MLB Playoffs, though, as they ended the 2020 MLB regular season in second place of the AL East with a 31-29 record, above deeper teams such as the title-defending Washington Nationals and the Philadelphia Phillies, and it’s clear they went above the expectations -- their run differential of --41 is the worst of all the playoff teams in the National League and were a below-average team according to most offensive metrics, finishing in the Bottom 5 in several categories such as runs scored per game (11th, 4.38) and slugging percentage (13th, .384). They were also below-average in the pitching department, posting the fourth-highest runs allowed per game (5.07) and ending in the Bottom 5 in other stats such as opposing batting average, opposing on-base percentage and opposing slugging. They didn’t have a single hitter with an OPS above the .890 mark in the regular season, while their best pitcher, Pablo Lopez, made 11 starts and had a 3.61 ERA.
The Cubs won the NL Central pennant after posting a 34-26 record -- that was the fourth-best record in the National League behind only the Los Angeles Dodgers, the San Diego Padres, and the Atlanta Braves. The Cubs performed in line with their expected win-loss record (33-27) and ended with a +25 run-differential, the best mark of their division, so their pennant was more than deserved. That said, it’s worth noting the Cubs struggled offensively for most of the season. They scored the sixth-lowest runs per game (4.42) and also finished in the Bottom 5 in categories such as average (third-worst, .220) and slugging (12th, .387) in the NL. They hid those deficiencies with their pitching, however, as they ranked third in average runs allowed per game (4.00) and opposing on-base percentage (.302) while ranking in the Top 5 in opposing batting average (.233). The Cubs might have struggled on offense as a team but that didn’t stop Ian Happ to deliver an excellent season, as he posted a .866 OPS with a team-leading 12 home runs, ahead of more established players such as Anthony Rizzo, Javier Baez and Kris Bryant, just to name a few. Their top hurler was Yu Darvish, who finished the 2020 MLB season with a 2.01 ERA, a 0.96 WHIP and a 2.22 FIP in 76 innings across 12 starts. He’s a clear candidate for the NL Cy Young.
Consensus Pick to Advance: Chicago Cubs
St. Louis Cardinals vs San Diego Padres
The Cardinals are one of the best stories of the 2020 MLB regular season, as they played fewer than 60 games due to a massive COVID-19 outbreak that forced them to play several doubleheaders, but they won eight of their last 12 games to finish the season in second place of the NL Central with a 30-28 record. They had more than a few struggles on offense, though, ranking in the Bottom 5 in most categories -- their 4.14 runs scored per game was the fourth-worst mark in the National League while their .371 slugging was the second-worst figure in the National League -- but their biggest strength came from the pitching side. The Cardinals allowed only 3.95 runs per game in the regular season, the second-best mark in the NL, and they were also in the Top 3 when it comes to opposing batting average (.216) and slugging (.380), meaning they will rely heavily on their pitching to get the job done. Their best hitter was Paul Goldschmidt, who posted a .883 OPS and only six homers, while their top pitcher was Dakota Hudson, who posted a 2.77 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP in eight starts.
The Padres were one of the most impressive stories during the 2020 MLB regular season -- similar to what happened with the Toronto Blue Jays and the Chicago White Sox in the American League, San Diego was slightly ahead of schedule in their rebuilding process and sneaked into the 2020 MLB Playoffs after finishing in second place of the NL West with a 37-23 record, the second-best mark in the National League. Their expected win-loss record was 38-22 and their +84 run differential were both elite, so it’s not like they overachieved to reach the postseason. The Padres have been as good as advertised and most experts view them as a darkhorse World Series candidate. San Diego thrived in both hitting and pitching, ending in the Top 5 in both runs scored (3rd, 5.42) and allowed per game (4th, 4.02), while also ending as a Top 5 club in batting average (5th, .257), slugging (3rd, .466), opposing on-base percentage (2nd, .301) and opposing slugging (.389). In short, the Padres do not have many weaknesses ahead of the 2020 MLB playoffs. Their top pitcher was Dinelson Lamet, who ended making a strong case for the NL Cy Young Award after posting a 2.09 ERA, a 0.86 WHIP and a 2.47 FIP in 69 innings across 12 starts. Their top hitters were Fernando Tatis Jr., who made a strong case for the NL MVP Award before cooling off late in the year while ending with a .937 OPS, 17 homers, 45 RBI and 11 stolen bases, and Manny Machado, who had a .950 OPS to go along with 16 homers and 47 RBI across 60 games.
Consensus Pick to Advance: San Diego Padres
Milwaukee Brewers vs Los Angeles Dodgers
The Brewers was the only team in the 2020 MLB regular season that reached the MLB playoffs despite having a negative win-loss record -- they ended in fourth place of the NL Central standings with a 29-31 record, tied with the San Francisco Giants for eighth place but edging them on the tie-breaking criteria. However, the Brewers posted a 28-32 expected win-loss record and their negative run differential (-17) was the second worst of all the NL playoff team, only topping the Miami Marlins (-41). Milwaukee was a below-average team according to most offensive metrics, and it didn’t help them that their star player, Christian Yelich, played at basically a replacement-level during the entire season. The Brewers finished in the Bottom 5 in most offensive categories, including runs scored per game (13th, 4.12) and batting average (12th, .223), although they did a better job in the pitching department, posting the fourth-best opposing batting average (.229) while allowing the sixth-fewest runs allowed per game at only 4.40. It’s clear they will need to be stellar from the mound if they want to have a shot at pulling the upset against the Los Angeles Dodgers. Milwaukee’s best hitter was Jedd Gyorko, who posted a .837 OPS with nine homers and 17 RBI, while Keston Hiura notched a team-high 13 home runs. Their top pitcher was Brandon Woodruff, who posted a 3.05 ERA and a 0.99 WHIP in 73.2 innings across 13 starts.
The Dodgers were clear title contenders as soon as the 2020 MLB season started and they backed that status with an excellent performance throughout the entire campaign -- Los Angeles ended with the best record in MLB at 43-17 and posted an extraordinary +136 run differential. The Dodgers were so dominant from start to finish that they ended the regular season in first place in both runs scored (5.82) and runs allowed (3.55) per game, scoring an average of 2+ runs per game. They also ranked first in slugging percentage (.483), opposing slugging percentage (.355), opposing on-base percentage (272) and opposing batting average (.213), showing little to no flaws across the board. The Dodgers have the deepest lineup in baseball and an excellent pitching staff as well, with names such as Mookie Betts, Clayton Kershaw and others leaading the way. The Dodgers also had five players with double-digit home runs and, surprisingly, the top hitter -- in terms of OPS among regulars -- was Will Smith, as the backstop posted a .980 OPS while working as Los Angeles’ starting catcher, while Betts had a strong debut as a Dodger with a .928 OPS, 16 homers and 39 RBI -- he led the team in the last two categories. The top pitcher was Clayton Kershaw, who had a bounce-back season with a 2.16 ERA, a 0.84 WHIP and a 3.30 FIP. Those are strong-enough numbers to, at least, be in the NL Cy Young discussion.
Consensus Pick to Advance: Los Angeles Dodgers