Karpuc’s Best NBA Bet For Friday, Feb. 4

The Pick: Thunder +7.5 at Trail Blazers

The Thunder made me very happy with the +605 outright win against the Mavs that I accurately predicted back on Wednesday. They outplayed Luka Doncic and company all game and managed to reset in overtime and come out on top; it was a gritty victory for such a young team. 

“That's a tough road win,” Thunder coach Luke Daigneault told reporters after the game. “I thought our guys were just really competitive throughout. The competitive level really never dropped. I mean, we were just playing really hard tonight – really competing together. Then our poise, it's one thing to compete and really dive in but to stay poised through all the ups and downs of that game. They put a run on us in the fourth and tied the game and we just kind of reset and we were the better team in overtime and so really impressed by our team tonight.”

Despite the fact that they’re going to be playing without Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (again), I think OKC is going to ride the momentum into this contest. The more I look at this, the less I understand their +7.5 odds. The Blazers have been absolutely terrible without Damian Lillard and the talent level on both of these teams isn’t as drastic as the +/- 7.5 point spread suggests. 

Not only that, but OKC has gone an elite 32-17 ATS this season compared to Portland’s 22-30 ATS mark. This is now the second straight year that OKC has consistently outperformed consensus sportsbook expectations and if you bet a full unit on the Thunder ATS every game since the start of last season, you’d be up a lot of money right now.

The Thunder also won this exact matchup by the score of 98-81 back on January 31st, so I’m absolutely going to be targeting their moneyline again here. The Blazers have failed to cover in four of their last five games while the Thunder’s young core has continued to play hard every night as they gain more experience. I love them at +7.5.

Published NBA Picks: 2021-2022 Season (20-12, 62.5%)

❌ Thursday 2/3: Suns -4.5 at Hawks (Result: Hawks Won By 9)

❌ Wednesday 2/2: Joel Embiid Over 32.5 vs. Wizards (Result: 27)

☑️ Saturday 1/29: Joel Embiid Over 32.5 vs. Kings (Result: 36)

❌ Friday 1/28: Pistons +3.5 at Magic (Result: Pistons Lost By 16)

☑️ Thursday 1/27: Warriors -5.5 vs. Timberwolves (Result: Warriors Won By 9)

☑️ Wednesday 1/26: Hawks -7.5 vs. Kings (Result: Hawks Won By 17)

☑️ Tuesday 1/25: Nikola Jokic Over 8.5 Assists (Result: 9)

☑️ Monday 1/24: Knicks-Cavaliers Under 204 (Result: 188)

❌ Friday 1/21: Bucks -8.5 vs. Bulls (Result: Bucks Won By 4)

☑️ Thursday 1/20: Suns-Mavericks Under 216.5 (Result: 210)

❌ Wednesday 1/19: James Harden Over 10.5 Assists (Result: 9)

❌ Tuesday 1/18: Pistons +15.5 at Warriors (Result: Pistons Lost By 16)

❌ Monday 1/17: Trail Blazers-Magic Over 215 (Result: 186)

❌ Friday 1/14: Raptors ML & Grizzlies ML Parlay (Result: Raptors & Grizzlies Lost)

☑️ Thursday 1/13: Grizzlies -4.5 vs. Timberwolves (Result: Grizzlies Won By 8)

❌ Wednesday 1/12: Spurs -6 vs. Rockets (Result: Spurs Lost By 4)

☑️ Tuesday 1/11: Grizzlies +100 ML vs. Warriors (Result: Grizzlies Won)

☑️ Monday 1/10: Bucks-Hornets Under 237.5 (Result: 202)

☑️ Friday 1/7: Raptors -11.5 vs. Jazz (Result: Raptors Won By 14)

☑️ Thursday 1/6: Pistons-Grizzlies Under 220 (Result: 206)

☑️ Wednesday 1/5: Hornets -9.5 vs. Pistons (Result: Hornets Won By 29)

❌ Tuesday 1/4: LeBron James Over 48.5 P&R&A (Result: 41)

☑️ Monday 1/3: Hawks-Blazers Over 226 (Result: 267)

☑️ Tuesday 12/28: Nuggets-Warriors Under 217.5 (Result: 167)

☑️ Wednesday 12/22: Thunder +5.5 vs. Nuggets (Result: Thunder Won By 14)

☑️ Tuesday 12/21: Suns -6.5 vs. Lakers (Result: Suns Won By 18

☑️ Monday 12/20: Thunder +8.5 vs. Grizzlies (Result: Thunder Won By 3)

☑️ Friday 12/17: LaMelo Ball & Damian Lillard 6+ 3s Combined (Result: 9)

☑️ Thursday 12/16: Pistons +10 at Pacers (Result: Pistons Lost By 9)

❌ Wednesday 12/15: Dewayne Dedmon Over 0.5 3s (Result: 0)

☑️ Tuesday 12/14: Raptors +8.5 at Nets (Result: Raptors Lost By 2)

❌ Monday 12/13: Hawks -11.5 vs. Rockets (Result: Hawks Lost By 6)