NFL Over Under Picks

NFL Over Under Picks for Week 14

Panthers vs Seahawks

The Carolina Panthers haven’t found themselves in a shootout in a few weeks. Carolina’s last three games have averaged a mere 29.7 total points. However, a high-scoring game could be inevitable this week against the Seattle Seahawks with the over/under of 43.5 points in danger of being breached. Somewhat miraculously, the Panthers have conceded 15 points or less in three straight games. But that doesn’t seem like a trend that’s going to last, especially for a team that’s conceded at least 26 points five times this year. Perhaps more importantly, the Caroline defense could struggle against Geno Smith, who has thrown for at least 275 yards in four consecutive games and is coming off the first game-winning fourth-quarter drive of his career. With DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett at wide receiver, the Seattle passing game is dangerous, especially with Smith throwing multiple touchdown passes in six straight games.

At the same time, the Seattle defense has proven itself to be unreliable this season. The Seahawks have allowed the fifth-most points in the league this season with just three of their 12 opponents failing to score at least 21 points against them. Obviously, the Panthers are far from an offensive juggernaut. However, the Carolina offense is a bit of a mystery right now with Sam Darnold set to make just his second start of the season this week. But if Darnold can lead the Panthers to at least 21 points, it doesn’t seem likely that this game will end with fewer than 43.5 points. Unless the Carolina offense proves to be utterly pitiful under Darnold, this game looks destined to hit the over, which is something the Seahawks have done three times in their last four games.

Jets vs Bills

The last time the New York Jets and Buffalo Bills met, the teams combined for just 37 points in a 20-17 Jets win. But things could be a little different in the rematch in Buffalo this week. The over/under is set at 43.5 points, as the Jets might have to do a little more scoring if they hope to sweep the Bills. Since that loss to the Jets, the Buffalo offense has started to come alive again, scoring at least 24 points in four straight games while averaging 28.3 points per game during that span. Questions about the health of Josh Allen’s elbow have dissipated somewhat, which is good news for the Bills, who have played their last two games on a Thursday, giving Allen’s elbow extra time to rest, just in case he needs it. Even against a stingy Jets defense, the Buffalo offense should be able to get rolling at home.

Meanwhile, the Jets are capable of scoring plenty of points themselves. They managed 22 points in Minnesota last week and easily could have scored more but came up short near the goal line. Mike White has provided a little bit of a spark after replacing Zach Wilson while rookie wide receiver Garrett Wilson has continued to impress. As White gets more comfortable and gains the trust of the players around him, the upside for the New York offense continues to rise. Plus, the Bills haven’t been their usual dominant themselves lately, at least until last week’s 24-10 win over the Patriots. Prior to that, the Bills had conceded at least 20 points in four straight games with the Browns and Lions both crossing that threshold. If the Jets can get to at least 20 points against Buffalo for the second time this season, it’s hard to envision the total points in the game staying under 43.5 points.

Eagles vs Giants

A meaningful December game between NFC East rivals has defensive slugfest written all over it. That could be the case with this week’s clash between the Philadelphia Eagles and the New York Giants, which has a somewhat ambitious over/under of 45.5 points. Granted, it’s been tough for any team to slow down Jalen Hurts and the Philadelphia offense this year. After a mini-slump, the Eagles have scored 75 points over their last two games. Through 12 games, only three teams have been able to keep the Eagles to 21 points or less. However, the Giants have been tough defensively this year, allowing just 21 points per game. They’ve been a little better at home, conceding 19.7 points per game. Even teams like the Cowboys and Ravens haven’t been able to rip apart the New York defense, so the Eagles might find some resistance.

At the same time, the New York offense isn’t likely to light up the scoreboard either. Even if Daniel Jones has made some positive strides this year and improved his ball security, the G-Men are far from a high-powered offense. Jones is averaging fewer than 200 yards passing on the season, so teams know they’re getting a big dose of Saquon Barkley with Jones also doing some work with his legs. Against a Philadelphia defense that’s allowing 18.8 points per game, the Giants could struggle to put together long drives. Only four teams have been able to score more than 17 points against the Eagles this season. Unless the Giants can become the fifth team, the odds are good that the total points in this game will stay below the over/under of 45.5 points.

BetQL's NFL Over Under Picks

If you aren't into NFL picks against the spread or moneylines, and you are more of an over under guy don't worry BetQL has you covered. Every week you will find our free over under pick analysis here on this page. Each week we unlock at least one game to give every a chance to experience what a BetQL subscription is like, and you will be able to see all the data we have on that game. We will also have our experts weigh in on their favorite over under bets of the week and you can read their thoughts below

How Do BetQL's Over Under Picks Work?

We rank each of our bets on a scale of 1 to 5 Stars, with 5 Stars being the most profitable bets each week. Our computer model is able to identify trends and player statistics to see who is performing up to par, and who is slumping. We use real time data and analysis to predict each score, so picking the over under total has never been easier. When there is a large discrepancy between our model projection and the actual line, we give the bet a 5 Star rating so you know you’re making a smart bet. Each pick will include analysis on how the model projected its bet, as well as where the model would have the game lined. You also get the picks faster, because our model begins working on them as soon as the line opens. With BetQL, there is no more worrying about which games to bet on during the NFL season. We even adapt in-game, so you can find the best value while the ball is in the air. We have you covered for every game, from the first kickoff of the season until the last second ticks off the clock in the Super Bowl. No other sport betting service can get you the picks faster and with a higher winning percentage than BetQL, meaning we will keep you ahead of the bookmakers all season long. If you want to start making the most informed NFL picks and getting the best closing line value around, then subscribe to BetQL and start beating the books.

When Do Our Over Under Picks Come Out?

There is no-one that is quicker to get their picks out than BetQL. We want to be sure that you get the best of the number and secure that closing line value before it is stripped away. Our picks go live the instant the odds come out, so you won’t have to wait on the experts to sort through all the research and data. Our computer does that in seconds after each game is played, so it is already able to make a pick as soon as the lines come out on which way the data is telling you to bet. Most NFL odds, and spreads are released on Sunday night and our model will have over under picks for those games instantly, but our model updates throughout the week. If there is big line movement on a game, or injury news that will impact the game our model takes that into account and updates our pick. No matter what day of the week you like to bet or if you are checking on a Monday morning or a Sunday afternoon you can rest assured that you are looking at the best and most updated NFL over under picks available.

NFL Over Unders Explained

Betting an NFL over under is one of the easiest bet types to understand because you are solely betting on how many total points will be scored in the game. The sportsbook will set a line which is the total amount of points you are wagering on for that game, and you simply have to pick if you think more points will be score (over) or less points will be scored (under). It is possible to bet on one team's total number of points but when someone mentions an NFL over under they are probably talking about the total number of combined points scored in the game. Betting the over under is one of the hardest things to do in an NFL game because of the incredible amount of unpredictability involved in the sport. The total is a very common way for sports bettors to wager on a game, and you will see below why even the most inexperienced sports gambler will have an easy time understanding the basics of total betting. We have compiled an example that explains how betting the total works, as well as explaining the odds that are associated with making a total bet on the over under. Check it out below.

NFL Over Under Example: Green Bay Packers vs. Chicago Bears (O46 -110, U46 -110)

Betting the total in an NFL game is hard when it comes to picking a winner, but not hard to understand how it works. As you can see above, the total for this game between Green Bay and Chicago is set at 46. This simply means that the total score between both teams when combined is projected to be 46 points. Betting the over for this game would imply that you believe the total amount of points scored during the game will be higher than 46. If the game lands on exactly 46 points scored, the bet pushes and you get the money back that you wagered on the game. A bet on the under would imply that you believe the total score of the game will be under 46 points. The bet would also push should the number land on 46. So, as you can see, it’s pretty simple to understand. You are just betting if the total amount of points scored in the game is higher or lower than the number listed.

Now for the second part, the actual odds you have to pay to make the bet. This is fairly simple to understand once you know what the numbers mean. In this instance, both totals are listed as -110. What this simply means is that in order to win $100, you must bet $110 dollars. The amounts do not have to be this small or large either, as it would mean the same thing with any amount. An $11 wager would win you $10, while an $1100 dollar wager would win you $1000, and so on. This extra price you have to pay is called “vigor” or “juice” on a line. Think of it like a tax you are having to pay the books to place your bet.

There are times when you will occasionally see a “plus-money” line with a total bet, however, that is somewhat rare. If you do see one, it will simply have a “+” instead of a “-“ in front of the number. Let’s say the number is +160. What this means is that if you bet $100 on this line, you would win $160. So you are not having to pay a tax at all, and instead, you are getting a much higher payout. Lines like these are always on a bet that is more unlikely to win, so you will have to be okay with the risk that involves being in the unfavorable situation.

Expert NFL Over Under Picks:

At BetQL, we know that sports bettors want the most options possible at their disposal before they place their hard-earned money on a NFL game. Not only do we have our computer models picks on each game every week, but we have a team of experts working throughout the season to help you make your bets. This is a team of real people who work each week to crunch the numbers and do their own research to find you the best value on certain games. But that’s not where the options stop with BetQL. We have all the betting data you need from the sports books to figure out where the money is going, from public money percentage to sharp money. This lets you see where the big bets are being placed, and which side the sharp bettors are on.

One of the best ways, and most profitable ways, to bet the over under total is by looking at the sharp action. These numbers will tell you where all the huge tickets are going on a game, compared to where the small wagers are being placed. For example, one team may have a huge number of tickets on them compiling of 90% of the total bets placed on that game for that type of wager, while the other team only has 10%. However, that 10% team may have over 70% of the total money bet on the game, meaning that the bets placed on that team are very large amounts of money. This lets you separate the more inexperienced bettors from the big cats that are placing massive amounts of money on bets every single night. These gamblers are usually sharp bettors, people that gamble for a living and have inside sources that help them win bets. We have this data via our BetQL model that tells us the Sharp %, making sure you know where the pros are betting each and every game.

Want More Football Picks?

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