NFL Over Under Picks

BetQL's NFL Over Under Picks

If you aren't into NFL picks against the spread or moneylines, and you are more of an over under guy don't worry BetQL has you covered. Every week you will find our free over under pick analysis here on this page. Each week we unlock at least one game to give every a chance to experience what a BetQL subscription is like, and you will be able to see all the data we have on that game. We will also have our experts weigh in on their favorite over under bets of the week and you can read their thoughts below

San Francisco 49ers vs Jacksonville Jaguars

The San Francisco 49ers and the Jacksonville Jaguars will collide in a game between two teams with losing records, but it’s fair to say these two teams are approaching the rest of the regular season with different mindsets. While San Francisco has a 4-5-0 record and remains alive in the race for a playoff berth if they can string a few wins together, it’s safe to say the Jaguars are already thinking about next season thanks to their 2-7-0 mark. The 49ers are coming off a 31-10 win over the Los Angeles Rams, while the Jags are coming off a 23-17 loss against the Indianapolis Colts. It’s fair to mention Jacksonville has recorded its two wins over the last four weeks, though, so they’re on the rise. With both teams at 2-3 over their last five contests, however, there’s very little separating each franchise. When it comes to analyzing the over/under tendencies ahead of this game, we can see that the O/U has been set at 45 points, but don’t be surprised if this game ends up hitting the under. The Jaguars are one of the worst offenses in the league with a meager 16.6 points per game, while the 49ers only put up 24.0 points per contest. Given how much both teams struggle on offense, this game could easily end up being a low-scoring affair.

Indianapolis Colts vs Buffalo Bills

The Indianapolis Colts have been disappointing this season and sit at 5-5-0 this season after reaching the playoffs last season, and while they still have a shot at a wildcard spot given how tight things are in the AFC, Indianapolis just needs to focus on keeping the momentum they’ve had of late -- they’re coming off a 23-17 win over the Jacksonville Jaguars the last time out, pushing their winning streak to two games and winning four of their last five. The Buffalo Bills are not an easy opponent, though. The leaders of the AFC East are coming off a 45-17 win over the New York Jets last week and while they’ve been inconsistent in recent weeks, they’ve still won three of their last five contests while featuring the leader in the MVP race, Josh Allen, under center and being flanked by a stellar defensive unit. Buffalo sits at the top of the AFC East with a 6-3-0 record. When it comes to analyzing the over/under tendencies ahead of this game, we can see that the O/U has been set at 49.5 points -- and it wouldn’t be surprising if this game ends up hitting the over considering how both offenses have behaved this season. The Bills are scoring 31.1 points per game, while the Colts are putting up 26.8 points per contest. The only reason that might prevent this game from hitting the over would be if the Bills deliver another stout performance on defense. For what is worth, they’ve allowed just 15.0 points per game -- the best mark in the NFL.

Houston Texans vs Tennessee Titans

The Houston Texans have been one of the worst teams in the NFL this season according to most metrics, and their record of 1-8-0 certainly backs that up -- they won the season opener against the Jacksonville Jaguars but have lost eight in a row, including going 0-5 on the road, and they’re also coming off a 17-9 loss against the Miami Dolphins. Things are not going to get any easier for them, as the Tennessee Titans are one of the best teams in the NFL right now and they have won their last five contests while holding a comfortable lead at the top of the AFC South thanks to their 8-2-0 record. Their most recent game ended in a 23-21 win over another contending team, the New Orleans Saints. The Titans are also 4-1 when playing at home and they’ve been looking unstoppable of late thanks to their stellar play on both ends of the field. When it comes to analyzing the over/under tendencies ahead of this game, we can see that the O/U has been set at 44.5 points -- though that’s more a testament of what the Titans can do on offense and how poor Houston’s defense has been thus far. Given the fact that the Titans score 27.8 points per game and the Texans allow nearly 30 points per contest (28.7), this is a game that might very well hit the over -- but if that’s the case, then it’d be a very one-sided affair with the Titans securing a blowout win.

Green Bay Packers vs Minnesota Vikings

The Green Bay Packers are coming off one of their best defensive performances in recent memory, shutting out the Seattle Seahawks en route to a comfortable 17-0 victory that allowed them to bounce back following their previous loss against the Kansas City Chiefs, a game where Aaron Rodgers wasn’t available. Despite the turmoil surrounding the team, the Packers are still a contending franchise and sit at the top of the division with an 8-2-0 record and have won four of their last five. As for the Minnesota Vikings, they’re in second place with a 4-5-0 mark and while they’re coming off a 27-20 win over the Los Angeles Chargers the last time out, it’s fair to say that win ended a two-game losing skid. They’re still on the rise, though, as Minnesota has recorded three of their four wins in the last five weeks. When it comes to analyzing the over/under tendencies ahead of this game, we can see that the O/U has been set at just 47.5 points per game, though might be decided on whether the Packers have the capacity of putting up points on the board or not, and if they can control the Vikings offense. Minnesota scores 24.6 points per game this season but the Packers allow just 18.0 points per tilt -- the third-best mark in the league. Given those tendencies, and the fact that the Packers score just 21.6 points per contest, don’t be surprised if this game ends up hitting the under.

New Orleans Saints vs Philadelphia Eagles

The New Orleans Saints are 5-4-0 and 3-2 on the road this season, and while they’ve looked like a contender at times, it’s fair to say they’ve also been struggling in recent weeks. They’re coming off a 23-21 loss against the Tennessee Titans last week and that means they’ve lost two games in a row, but they’ve also gone 3-2 in their last five contests while sitting in second place of the NFC South. On the other hand, the Philadelphia Eagles sit in second place of the NFC East with a 4-6-0 record but are way behind the Dallas Cowboys at the top of the division, so their best chance for making a deep playoff run is to earn a Wild Card spot. That might be complicated considering their latest results, as they’ve gone 2-3 in their last five games, but those two wins have come in their last two contests -- against the Detroit Lions and against the Denver Broncos the last time out. When it comes to analyzing the over/under tendencies ahead of this game, we can see that the O/U has been set at 43 points and while that’s a relatively low total, it might be explained due to the fact that the Eagles have been inconsistent while the Saints are very depleted on the offensive side of the ball. Either way, considering both teams have averaged more than 24.5 points per game thus far this season, this game could very well hit the over.

Cincinnati Bengals vs Las Vegas Raiders

The Cincinnati Bengals and the Las Vegas Raiders have gone through identical runs of results over the last few weeks, and while both teams remain with a strong chance of reaching the playoffs, it’s clear both franchises need to find a way to turn things around sooner than later. The Bengals are coming off a 41-16 loss against the Cleveland Browns the last time our and that pushed their losing streak to two games, and they’ve also gone 2-3 in their last five contests. The same can be said about the Raiders, as they’ve also lost two in a row following their 41-14 loss against the Kansas City Chiefs. As if the similarities were not enough, both teams also sit in third place in their respective divisions. The Bengals have the better offense compared to the Raiders, but Las Vegas has looked better defensively -- even if the recent games indicate otherwise. Either way, all signs point towards this game being a tight contest. When it comes to analyzing the over/under tendencies ahead of this game, we can see that the O/U has been set at 50.5 points, and that would seem to suggest that this game will be a back-and-forth contest. Considering both teams score over 23 points per game, but also concede over 22.5 points per contest, that might very well be the case. Three of the last four games from both Cincinnati and Las Vegas have featured more than 50 points as well, strengthening the notion of this game being a high-scoring contest.

Dallas Cowboys vs Kansas City Chiefs

The Dallas Cowboys have one of the best teams in the NFL this season and own a dynamic offense where names such as Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb, Ezekiel Elliott, and Amari Cooper all stand out, but they will face one of their toughest tests of the campaign when playing against the Kansas City Chiefs, the AFC representative in each of the last two Super Bowls and a team that’s on the rise thanks to the uptick in the play of their star quarterback, Patrick Mahomes. The Cowboys are 7-2-0 this season and comfortably lead the NFC East while also going 3-1 on the road so far -- they’re coming off a 43-3 win over the Atlanta Falcons and have won four of their last five. As for the Chiefs, they’re at the top of the AFC West with a 6-4-0 record and are riding a three-game winning streak following their 41-14 win over the Las Vegas Raiders last weekend. Just like the Cowboys, they’ve also gone 4-1 in their last five contests. When it comes to analyzing the over/under tendencies ahead of this game, we can see that the O/U has been set at a massive 56 points, but none of Kansas City’s last five games have hit that mark and that hasn’t happened in either of the last three games from Dallas. Even though these two are two of the best offenses in the league when it comes to point scored per game (DAL: 31.6 - KC: 26.2), the defenses also play a factor here. Don’t expect this game to end up hitting that “over” mark.

Arizona Cardinals vs Seattle Seahawks

The Arizona Cardinals might not be undefeated anymore but still sit at the top of the NFC West with an 8-2-0 record, though it might be time to start getting worried considering their two losses have come over their last three contests. Arizona is coming off a 34-10 loss against the Carolina Panthers the last time out, but they’ve still gone 3-2 in their last five games and the team knows a win is mandatory here if they don’t want to lose the top spot in the division. They have a perfect opponent to bounce back, though, as the Seattle Seahawks have won just three games this season (3-6-0) and sit at the bottom of the NFC West while already thinking about what might happen next season. As if the losing record wasn’t enough, the Seahawks were shut out last week (17-0 against the Green Bay Packers) and they’ve also lost four of their last five games. When it comes to analyzing the over/under tendencies ahead of this game, we can see that the O/U has been set at 48 points -- though this game is not likely to hit that mark. Both teams concede under 21 points per game (ARI: 18.9 - SEA: 20.7) and plus, the Cardinals might not have a fully-healthy Kyler Murray after he was limited in practice throughout the week. With that in mind, this game might end up being a low-scoring affair.

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Los Angeles Chargers

The Pittsburgh Steelers are 5-3-1 this season and are coming off what can only be described as an embarrassing result since they recorded a tie against the Detroit Lions, arguably the worst team in the NFL this year, in a game that was full of errors and sloppiness on both sides of the ball. Pittsburgh still remains undefeated in their last five contests, however, as they’ve gone 4-0-1 in that span -- this is a marked improvement over their slow start to the season. Los Angeles Chargers are 5-4-0 on the season and while they’ve looked good at times, it’s fair to say they’ve also been slumping in recent weeks with a 2-3 record in their last five contests while coming off a disappointing 27-20 loss against the Minnesota Vikings. The Chargers have gone 2-3 at home as well, which is not encouraging against a Steelers team that has gone 2-1 on the road. When it comes to analyzing the over/under tendencies ahead of this game, we can see that the O/U has been set at 47 points. This game might very well hit the over in normal conditions, but the Steelers won’t have Ben Roethlisberger and have been a mess offensively for most of the season. The Chargers should dominate and win here, but don’t be surprised if this game ends up hitting the “under” mark. Four of the last five Chargers games have had at least 47 points, but that hasn’t been the in four of the last five games for Pittsburgh.

New York Giants vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The New York Giants have gone just 3-6-0 this season, but they’ve shown signs of being on the rise of late with two wins over their last three contests, including a 23-16 victory over the Las Vegas Raiders last week. New York has been struggling badly on offense this season, though, as they’ve scored just 19.9 points per game -- but they’ve scored 20 or more points in three of their last five contests. However, will that be enough to potentially pull the upset against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers? The reigning Super Bowl champions have lost two games in a row and are coming off a 29-19 defeat against the Washington Football Team, but they remain at the top of the NFC South standings with a 6-3-0 record and have one of the best offenses in football, led by the likes of Tom Brady, Leonard Fournette, Antonio Brown, Mike Evans and Rob Gronkowski, just to name a few. Despite the losing streak, Tampa Bay has gone 3-2 in its last five contests. When it comes to analyzing the over/under tendencies ahead of this game, we can see that the O/U has been set at 49.5 points and this game could very well hit the “over” easily. The Buccaneers have one of the best offenses in the league since they score 31.0 points per contest, and the Giants might very well put up garbage points up on the board if this ends up being a blowout win for Tampa Bay. Don’t be surprised if there are at least 50 points in this game. That has happened in three of Tampa Bay’s last five contests.

How Do BetQL's Over Under Picks Work?

We rank each of our bets on a scale of 1 to 5 Stars, with 5 Stars being the most profitable bets each week. Our computer model is able to identify trends and player statistics to see who is performing up to par, and who is slumping. We use real time data and analysis to predict each score, so picking the over under total has never been easier. When there is a large discrepancy between our model projection and the actual line, we give the bet a 5 Star rating so you know you’re making a smart bet. Each pick will include analysis on how the model projected its bet, as well as where the model would have the game lined. You also get the picks faster, because our model begins working on them as soon as the line opens. With BetQL, there is no more worrying about which games to bet on during the NFL season. We even adapt in-game, so you can find the best value while the ball is in the air. We have you covered for every game, from the first kickoff of the season until the last second ticks off the clock in the Super Bowl. No other sport betting service can get you the picks faster and with a higher winning percentage than BetQL, meaning we will keep you ahead of the bookmakers all season long. If you want to start making the most informed NFL picks and getting the best closing line value around, then subscribe to BetQL and start beating the books.

When Do Our Over Under Picks Come Out?

There is no-one that is quicker to get their picks out than BetQL. We want to be sure that you get the best of the number and secure that closing line value before it is stripped away. Our picks go live the instant the odds come out, so you won’t have to wait on the experts to sort through all the research and data. Our computer does that in seconds after each game is played, so it is already able to make a pick as soon as the lines come out on which way the data is telling you to bet. Most NFL odds, and spreads are released on Sunday night and our model will have over under picks for those games instantly, but our model updates throughout the week. If there is big line movement on a game, or injury news that will impact the game our model takes that into account and updates our pick. No matter what day of the week you like to bet or if you are checking on a Monday morning or a Sunday afternoon you can rest assured that you are looking at the best and most updated NFL over under picks available.

NFL Over Unders Explained

Betting an NFL over under is one of the easiest bet types to understand because you are solely betting on how many total points will be scored in the game. The sportsbook will set a line which is the total amount of points you are wagering on for that game, and you simply have to pick if you think more points will be score (over) or less points will be scored (under). It is possible to bet on one team's total number of points but when someone mentions an NFL over under they are probably talking about the total number of combined points scored in the game. Betting the over under is one of the hardest things to do in an NFL game because of the incredible amount of unpredictability involved in the sport. The total is a very common way for sports bettors to wager on a game, and you will see below why even the most inexperienced sports gambler will have an easy time understanding the basics of total betting. We have compiled an example that explains how betting the total works, as well as explaining the odds that are associated with making a total bet on the over under. Check it out below.

NFL Over Under Example: Green Bay Packers vs. Chicago Bears (O46 -110, U46 -110)

Betting the total in an NFL game is hard when it comes to picking a winner, but not hard to understand how it works. As you can see above, the total for this game between Green Bay and Chicago is set at 46. This simply means that the total score between both teams when combined is projected to be 46 points. Betting the over for this game would imply that you believe the total amount of points scored during the game will be higher than 46. If the game lands on exactly 46 points scored, the bet pushes and you get the money back that you wagered on the game. A bet on the under would imply that you believe the total score of the game will be under 46 points. The bet would also push should the number land on 46. So, as you can see, it’s pretty simple to understand. You are just betting if the total amount of points scored in the game is higher or lower than the number listed.

Now for the second part, the actual odds you have to pay to make the bet. This is fairly simple to understand once you know what the numbers mean. In this instance, both totals are listed as -110. What this simply means is that in order to win $100, you must bet $110 dollars. The amounts do not have to be this small or large either, as it would mean the same thing with any amount. An $11 wager would win you $10, while an $1100 dollar wager would win you $1000, and so on. This extra price you have to pay is called “vigor” or “juice” on a line. Think of it like a tax you are having to pay the books to place your bet.

There are times when you will occasionally see a “plus-money” line with a total bet, however, that is somewhat rare. If you do see one, it will simply have a “+” instead of a “-“ in front of the number. Let’s say the number is +160. What this means is that if you bet $100 on this line, you would win $160. So you are not having to pay a tax at all, and instead, you are getting a much higher payout. Lines like these are always on a bet that is more unlikely to win, so you will have to be okay with the risk that involves being in the unfavorable situation.

Expert NFL Over Under Picks:

At BetQL, we know that sports bettors want the most options possible at their disposal before they place their hard-earned money on a NFL game. Not only do we have our computer models picks on each game every week, but we have a team of experts working throughout the season to help you make your bets. This is a team of real people who work each week to crunch the numbers and do their own research to find you the best value on certain games. But that’s not where the options stop with BetQL. We have all the betting data you need from the sports books to figure out where the money is going, from public money percentage to sharp money. This lets you see where the big bets are being placed, and which side the sharp bettors are on.

One of the best ways, and most profitable ways, to bet the over under total is by looking at the sharp action. These numbers will tell you where all the huge tickets are going on a game, compared to where the small wagers are being placed. For example, one team may have a huge number of tickets on them compiling of 90% of the total bets placed on that game for that type of wager, while the other team only has 10%. However, that 10% team may have over 70% of the total money bet on the game, meaning that the bets placed on that team are very large amounts of money. This lets you separate the more inexperienced bettors from the big cats that are placing massive amounts of money on bets every single night. These gamblers are usually sharp bettors, people that gamble for a living and have inside sources that help them win bets. We have this data via our BetQL model that tells us the Sharp %, making sure you know where the pros are betting each and every game.

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