NFL Public Betting
BetQL's NFL Consensus Picks
Each week we will open up one of our games for free to not only show you which side the public is betting against the spread, but for every bet type. You can take a look at the unlocked NFL public betting data above to fade the public, tail them, or go ahead and look at all the data we have on that game. Our free games allow you to get an inside look on what a BetQL subscription is like, and if find our free data helpful hopefully it will push you to subscribe. Although we are showing public betting percentages for against the spread above we have NFL public betting data for every game and every bet type. If you are profitable fading the public favorite then BetQL is for you, but here you will find our analysis on the public betting for our free games.
Cleveland Browns vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Our free game of the week is the the Browns vs. Jaguars that kicks off at 1pm on Sunday afternoon, and we are here to give you an inside look at which side the public betting is on early in the week. Currently the point spread for this game sits at +/-6.5 with the Browns listed as the heavy favorite, and the consensus pick for this game seems to be the favored Browns. Early in the week 59% of public betting is on the side of the Browns in this game, surprisingly though 41% is on the side of the Jaguars, so it seems the consensus pick isn't all that straight forward.
The Browns will travel to Jacksonville for this game and be the road favorite for the second time this season, the last time the Browns were a road favorite was against the Bengals a few weeks ago. The Browns were able to get a win straight up but could not cover the spread, which has been a pretty consistent narrative for the Browns this season, they are able to get a win, but the game is too close to cover the spread. The Browns defense has been their calling card for the past three weeks as they have only given up a combined 40 points in those three games. The Jaguars have had big issues scoring the ball already this year and will be starting their third quarterback of the year. If there was ever a time to cover the spread for the Browns it would be this game.
The Jaguars come into this game with a 1-8 record straight up and a 4-5 record against the spread. Although the public betting isn't backing the Jaguars so far this week a fair number of bettors think the Jags are the consensus pick for this week, and there is some logic to that choice. The Jaguars have done a good job at covering this season, much better than their terrible record against the spread. This week the Jags will be the home underdog for the 4th time this season where they are 2-2 against the spread. The best piece of data for this game is that the Jaguars are 1-4 against the spread when the point spread is 6.5 or less, so although at first glance it seems like the Jags cover fairly often, it is when the spread is larger than 6.5 points. The reason we think public bettors are backing the Jags is because the Browns have played a high number of close games this season which could make for an easy cover for the Jags. On the other hand the Jags will be starting Mike Glennon this week who has had a dozen chances on a handful of teams and has never been able to hold a starting position. It is very tough to recommend someone take only 6.5 and bet on a 1 win team with a new starting quarterback.
The public betting is backing the Browns in this game early in the week and we agree, although our NFL best bet model is picking the Jaguars for this game. We have a feeling the public will start to bet up the Browns very soon, so if you like the Browns at -6.5 make sure you jump on this point spread now.
Consensus Pick: Cleveland Browns (-6.5)
NFL Public Betting Explained
When someone mentions NFL public betting they are referencing who the general public or the who the “average joe” is betting on for any given game. A lot of bettors will call this an NFL consensus pick but at the end of the day it is the same thing as a public pick. Some bettors are more interested in the NFL public percentages rather than a public pick because they want to see if the bulk of the public bettors are all on one team, or maybe it is a small majority of the public. Bettors love to check NFL public betting percentages because historically one of the most popular betting strategies is betting against the public consensus. Data over the years has shown that betting against the public for NFL games has been somewhat profitable. The strategy behind betting against the public or as it’s commonly called “fading the public” is that most bettors do not totally know what they are doing and will pick a winner based on a gut feeling rather than data. Most casual NFL bettors are more familiar with picking a money line winner and aren’t comfortable reading NFL point spreads let alone picking a game against the spread. Since football is by far the most popular sport and the most popular sport for casual fans to bet on this strategy holds a bit more water. If you don’t totally buy the fading the public theory you can also check out our NFL expert picks page where you can find sharp betting data for any NFL game.
BetQL's NFL Consensus Picks
Finding NFL consensus picks has never been easier with BetQL. Rather than taking your time to find out who each analyst is picking for games you can take a look at BetQL's NFL consensus picks to find out overall who the public is backing. BetQL has NFL consensus picks for every game and every bet type. If you are someone who wins fading the public then BetQL is for you, or if you like to back the public favorite you can do that too. BetQL even makes it simple to understand which side in the NFL consensus pick because it's a simple bar graph showing which side has more of the public tickets or the public money. Finding NFL public picks has never been easier, and winning has never been easier with BetQL
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