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BetQL's NFL Moneyline Analysis: Week 7

Detroit Lions vs. Atlanta Falcons
Moneyline Odds: Lions (+115), Falcons (-135)

After securing their first win of the season the oddsmakers are loving the Atlanta Falcons and they love them so much they have them favored against the moneyline for their week 7 matchup against the the Detroit Lions. Currently the Falcons are (-135) on the moneyline. It is always a bit odd to see a team with one win be favored in any NFL game, but when they are playing a team with two wins it makes a bit more sense. The Lions are definitely not a juggernaut with wins over Jacksonville and Arizona, but are they bad enough that they will lose to the Atlanta Falcons? The Falcons got their first win beating up the Vikings on the road in Minnesota, but they will face a team that is a bit more stout defensively when the Lions come to town. The Lions' are holding defenses to an average of 28 points this season and the Falcons will need about 40 points to be able to win this game straight up. The Falcons may have the worst defense in the entire NFL, so will Matt Stafford be able to feast a few weeks before Thanksgiving? We have a feeling this moneyline should have been much closer to pick'em rather than the Falcons being the favorite here.

San Francisco 49ers vs. New England Patriots
Moneyline Odds: 49ers (+110), Patriots (-130)

One of the more interesting games of the weekend is the 49ers vs Patriots where both teams are not currently playing their best football. The 49ers are trying to get back on track after a giant loss to the Dolphins and a close win against the Rams last Sunday night, while the Patriots are attempting to bounce back after a rough loss to the Broncos, where Denver tried their best to give the game away. Surprisingly after their performance last week the Patriots come into this game as the moneyline favorite, while the 49ers are the road dogs. The big questions here will be which version of the 49ers will we get, and can the 49ers defense stop Cam Newton from rushing the ball. Jimmy G will be taking on his former team in this matchup and we would have expected the moneyline to be a little more even, but without fans it still seems like the oddsmakers think there is some homefield advantage.

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Los Angeles Chargers
Moneyline Odds: Jaguars (+295), Chargers (-370)

Our free game of the week is the Jaguars vs Chargers, which the oddsmakers seem to think will be an easy win for the Chargers. The Chargers come into this game as the giant moneyline favorite at (-370), which makes a lot of sense because they are playing a one win Jaguars team that hasn't been playing their best. Our NFL moneyline model thinks this should be a pretty easy win projecting that the Chargers win this game by 7 points, but would it surprise you if there was some Minshew Magic and the Jaguars win this game? The Jags shocked everyone and busted a whole lot of survivor pools in week 1 by defeating the Colts straight up, but since that game have looked pretty terrible. They have scored a combined 40 points in their last two games, but they are going up against a Chargers team that has much more potential than they do wins. The Chargers have looked good in spurts but that hasn't really converted to wins yet for this team. Although we don't totally believe the Jags can pull off an upset here we just think it is a bit odd that the Chargers are so heavily favored when they haven't consistently been able to play well.

NFL Moneylines Explained

NFL Money Line betting is the simplest and a popular form of betting. With NFL money line betting you are simply picking which team will outright win the game. The moneyline odds will list the the favorite in a given game as a negative number (ie. -200) that means you will have to bet that amount to win $100. The underdog will be listed as a positive number (ie. +500) that means you will win that amount on a $100 bet. Since moneyline betting is just picking the winner bets can not push because the game can not end in a tie. NFL moneyline odds typically range from -110, which would be considered a small favorite all the way up to -600, which would be considered a massive favorite. If moneyline betting is not for you then you can head over to our NFL odds page which shows all of our best value bets for the day against the spread. You can also check out our 1st half moneyline odds and 2nd half moneyline odds

If you can't hold back until the football season starts again then we recommend you check out these NBA picks for today and you can start make money before the NFL comes back.

NFL Moneyline Example:

An example of an NFL game that would likely have tight money line odds would be a game between the Patriots and the Steelers played in Pittsburgh. In this case the Patriots would likely only be -120 favorites or could even be a “pick em” game where both teams have -110 odds. A game that would have larger money line odds would be a game between the Patriots and the Dolphins, played in Foxboro. In this case the Patriots would likely be -600 of higher money line odds. In any of the above examples if the team you bet on wins the game you have won your bet. A lot of bettors refer to moneyline bets as betting “straight up” because there is nothing involved with the bet, it is just an old fashioned bet. NFL moneyline betting can be easy sometimes because most people know who the better team is and that is why moneyline odds do not pay out as well. If you are looking to bet the NFL and win a lot of money you should focus your efforts on betting against the spread.

NFL Moneyline Betting

NFL money line bets are difficult to find value and that is why money line betting is not as popular as betting against the spread or betting an NFL over under. If you are focused on NFL money line bets then BetQL is here to help because we always highlight the moneyline bets with the most value on this page. BetQL also has the most updated moneyline odds so if there is a change at your sportsbook you will see that change on our site as well. With BetQL you can also create and save dashboards that focus specifically on NFL moneyline bets.