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Karpuc: My Favorite Bet On Friday’s NBA Slate

This bet is standing out to me for many reasons

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Previous Picks (6-1)

☑️ Thursday: Grizzlies -4.5 vs. Timberwolves

❌ Wednesday: Spurs -6 vs. Rockets  

☑️ Tuesday: Grizzlies +100 ML vs. Warriors 

☑️ Monday: Bucks-Hornets Under 237.5

☑️ Last Friday: Raptors -11.5 vs. Jazz

☑️ Last Thursday: Pistons-Grizzlies Under 220

☑️ Last Wednesday: Hornets -9.5 vs. Pistons

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The Pick: Raptors ML (-350) & Grizzlies ML (-145) Parlay

I’m not in love with any ATS bet today, so let’s parlay two moneylines: the Raptors at the Pistons and the Grizzlies at home against the Mavericks.

Under Nick Nurse, the Raptors have gone 24-7 SU (+19.6 units) after a combined score of 195 points or less and 36-15 SU (+23.4 units) after a game in which both teams scored 105 points or less. Toronto lost their last game to the Suns by the score of 99 to 95, so these trends are active. The Raptors are, of course, heavy road favorites against an inferior Pistons team in this game and I think Toronto earns an easy road win.

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To add, both Fred VanVleet and Pascal Siakam have played at an All-Star level lately. VanVleet has averaged 29.4 points, 4.6 rebounds and 7.1 assists in 36.6 minutes over that eight-game span. In that stretch, he’s connected with an elite 45.5% of his three-point shots. In that same span, Siakam has put up 20.7 points, 8.3 rebounds and 4.6 assists over 35.7 minutes. Since Siakam has played 39+ minutes in four-straight games and FVV has played 39+ minutes in three out of the last four contests, I’m confident that both of the best players on the floor will be on Toronto’s side for the majority of the game. 

Over the last eight games, the Raptors have averaged a +7.9 point scoring differential (5th) while the Pistons have averaged a -11.1 scoring differential in that same span (29th). On the season, Detroit owns an NBA-worst -10.1 average point differential and has consistently gotten blown out. They also own the league’s worst Offensive Rating, per NBA.com.

Toronto has averaged 19.6 points off turnovers (3rd-best) and the Pistons has allowed an average of 18.3 points off turnovers (2nd-worst) over the last eight games. Additionally, Detroit has allowed an average of 15.3 fastbreak points allowed per game (2nd-worst) and the Raptors have averaged 16.6 fastbreak points per game (4th) in that span. 

For all those reasons, I’m expecting a big Raptors win in this spot.

My analysis on the Grizzlies is pretty simple: they’ve won 11 consecutive games and while they’re facing a Mavericks team that has won six out of seven, Dallas is coming off a 108-85 loss to the Knicks and will be without Kristaps Porzingis again in this matchup. I’m not going to fade the Grizzlies until they start burning me and I suggest you do the same; you can get this parlay in the +110 to +125 range on most sportsbooks right now!

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