Karpuc: My Favorite Bet On Thursday’s NBA Slate

Yesterday, I backed the Hornets (-9.5) to easily cover against this Pistons team and Charlotte earned a 140-111 win. I explained that my position was backed by a number of trends and wrote “While Charlotte is one of the worst defensive teams in the league, so is Detroit, and the Hornets own such a gigantic advantage on the offensive end. LaMelo Ball, Miles Bridges, Gordon Hayward, Terry Rozier and company should have their way and be able to do whatever they want.”  That’s exactly what happened and Charlotte’s starters were able to watch most of the fourth quarter from the bench with a huge lead.

The reason why I love BetQL so much is that you can use its premium tools to suit your personal betting needs. Want to see best bets from its proven statistical model? Cool. Want to see sharp (expert) data to validate your existing bet? Sweet. Want to fade the public? Sounds good. Whatever your strategy is, you can make the most informed bets possible using BetQL. Let’s get into my favorite bet on today’s slate.

Pistons at Grizzlies: Under 220 Points

Another day, another opportunity to pick on the Pistons. BetQL is listing this as the best bet, which validates the lean I had in my first look at the four-game slate.

The Grizzlies (25-14) host the Pistons (7-29) and will look to continue their hot run. Since they’re double-digit favorites, I don’t think there’s a ton of value in betting on them to cover. Instead, I want to look at the total; this mismatch should not result in 220+ points on the scoreboard. 

A simple look at the game table on the Pistons-Grizzlies game page tells me that the under has won four consecutive times in Grizzlies games. I like that streak to continue for two basic reasons: the Pistons can’t score and the Grizzlies have been an elite defensive team recently. 

Over the last 10 games, the Pistons have averaged just 106.0 points scored per game (25th in the NBA) while the Grizzlies have allowed just 105.4 points per contest (T-7th) and have ranked 5th in Defensive Rating.

Per NBA.com, I also found that in that span, 26.8% of Grizzlies points came from three-point range in that span (lowest rate in NBA) while 31.7% of Pistons points came from deep (23rd). The lack of potential three-point shooting makes the under more attractive.

Further, the Grizzlies have allowed 12.8 points off turnovers to their opposition (2nd-best) and 12.0 second-chance points per game (T-7th) in that span. Therefore, the Pistons probably won’t get many easy opportunities to put the ball in the basket. While I could see the Grizzlies easily hanging 120 points on Detroit in this matchup, I simply don’t see the core of Cade Cunningham, Saddiq Bey, Hamidou Diallo, Trey Lyles, Killian Hayes and Josh Jackson lighting things up.

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