Karpuc: My Favorite Bet On Wednesday’s NBA Slate

This bet is standing out to me for many reasons

Previous Picks (5-0) 

☑️ Tuesday: Grizzlies +100 ML vs. Warriors 

☑️ Monday: Bucks-Hornets Under 237.5

☑️ Last Friday: Raptors -11.5 vs. Jazz

☑️ Last Thursday: Pistons-Grizzlies Under 220

☑️ Last Wednesday: Hornets -9.5 vs. Pistons

The Pick: Spurs -6 vs. Rockets

I jumped on this line right when it opened and would be comfortable betting this up to the Spurs -8.5/-9.5 range if it moves.

Using BetQL’s game page, I noticed a ridiculous trend: under Stephen Silas, the Rockets (11-31) have gone 12-36 ATS vs. teams with losing records. Think about that for a second. They’ve failed to cover the spread 75% of the time against the league’s worst teams.

Despite their 15-25 overall record, San Antonio has gone 22-18 ATS and has covered the spread in three of their last four home games. While that doesn’t exactly drop jaws, the following numbers will since they sum up just how horrendous the Rockets have been over the last few weeks. 

Over their last 11 games, the Rockets have:

  • Gone 1-10 ATS
  • Allowed 124.5 points per game to opponents (worst)
  • Been outscored by an average of 15.2 PPG (worst in NBA by 7.2 PPG)
  • Turned the ball over an average of 16.2 times per game (worst)
  • Had the worst Defensive Rating
  • Had the worst Rebounding Percentage
  • Allowed 20.0 points off turnovers to opponents (worst)
  • Surrendered 55.3 points in the paint per game (worst)
  • Allowed 15.5 fastbreak points to opponents (worst)
  • Recorded an average of 20.9 assists (2nd-lowest)
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In that same span, the Spurs have:

  • Gone 6-5 ATS
  • Ranked 2nd in points in the paint per game
  • Pulled down 48.3 RPG (2nd)
  • Dished out 28.2 APG (3rd)
  • Ranked 9th in 2nd chance points per game
  • Scored 112.8 PPG (10th)
  • Ranked 13th in points off turnovers per game

San Antonio is dealing with COVID-19 protocol issues, most notably surrounding Derrick White, Doug McDermott, Keldon Johnson and Devin Vassell, but with the exceptions of Christian Wood, Kevin Porter Jr. and Jalen Green, you can make the argument that Houston doesn’t have any real NBA rotational players on their roster. 

I expect Gregg Popovich’s team to take advantage of a young, sloppy Rockets team that is at the very early stage of what should be a lengthy rebuild. To add, Spurs point guard Dejounte Murray should absolutely eat in this matchup, so I’m going to target his props as he soaks up extra usage without some of his teammates available. In wins this season, he’s averaged an elite 19.6 points, 8.9 rebounds and 9.5 assists, so a triple-double is a very smart bet in this spot.

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