Karpuc’s Best NBA Bet For Wednesday, February 2
BetQL’s Dan Karpuc has gone 20-10 (66.7%) on his published NBA bets; scroll down to see Monday’s pick
Dan Karpuc - Feb 2, 2022, 1:50pm ESTThe Pick: Joel Embiid Over 32.5 Points vs. Wizards
Over his last six games, Joel Embiid leads the NBA with a ridiculous 45.2% Usage Rate, per NBA.com. Not only is that seven full percentage points above the next-highest mark over that span, but he’s averaged 38.7 points per game on 55.6% shooting.
Utter domination.
As you might imagine, the volume has been there for the 76ers center. He’s averaged 13.2 made field goals on 23.7 shot attempts per contest and has also converted an absurd 11.2 made free throws on 14.0 attempts at the charity stripe per game in that span. As a result, Embiid has gone over this 32.5 point number in five of those six starts, with the lone exception being 26 against Anthony Davis and the Lakers, who were double and triple-teaming him all night.
Over that six-game stretch, Embiid has accounted for 45.2% of his team’s made field goals and 69.1% of his team’s made free throws when he’s been on the court, which are both eye-popping numbers and indicative of how much Philadelphia relies on him.
His consistency has been remarkable; he’s scored 30+ points in 15 of 17 games played since Christmas Day.
The big man has also been the most clutch player in the league this season. NBA.com measures “Clutch Points” as points scored in the final five minutes of the game with a point differential of +/- 5. Embiid leads all players with 5.6 in 20 eligible contests and is one of just two starters to average over 4.0 (Nikola Jokic: 4.4, Ja Morant: 4.1). Therefore, if the game comes down to the wire, the ball will be in Embiid’s hands.
Until his usage and corresponding shooting volume decreases, I’m going to bet over his point total every day regardless of the opponent. This is a situation that should be exploited, especially with the Wizards on the back half of a back-to-back. I expect him to absolutely dominate.
