Karpuc’s Best NBA Bet For Wednesday, February 2

The Pick: Joel Embiid Over 32.5 Points vs. Wizards

Over his last six games, Joel Embiid leads the NBA with a ridiculous 45.2% Usage Rate, per NBA.com. Not only is that seven full percentage points above the next-highest mark over that span, but he’s averaged 38.7 points per game on 55.6% shooting. 

Utter domination. 

As you might imagine, the volume has been there for the 76ers center. He’s averaged 13.2 made field goals on 23.7 shot attempts per contest and has also converted an absurd 11.2 made free throws on 14.0 attempts at the charity stripe per game in that span. As a result, Embiid has gone over this 32.5 point number in five of those six starts, with the lone exception being 26 against Anthony Davis and the Lakers, who were double and triple-teaming him all night. 

Over that six-game stretch, Embiid has accounted for 45.2% of his team’s made field goals and 69.1% of his team’s made free throws when he’s been on the court, which are both eye-popping numbers and indicative of how much Philadelphia relies on him.

His consistency has been remarkable; he’s scored 30+ points in 15 of 17 games played since Christmas Day.

The big man has also been the most clutch player in the league this season. NBA.com measures “Clutch Points” as points scored in the final five minutes of the game with a point differential of +/- 5. Embiid leads all players with 5.6 in 20 eligible contests and is one of just two starters to average over 4.0 (Nikola Jokic: 4.4, Ja Morant: 4.1). Therefore, if the game comes down to the wire, the ball will be in Embiid’s hands.

Until his usage and corresponding shooting volume decreases, I’m going to bet over his point total every day regardless of the opponent. This is a situation that should be exploited, especially with the Wizards on the back half of a back-to-back. I expect him to absolutely dominate.

Karpuc’s Published NBA Picks: 2021-2022 Season (20-10, 66.7%)

☑️ Saturday 1/29: Joel Embiid Over 32.5 vs. Kings (Result: 36)

❌ Friday 1/28: Pistons +3.5 at Magic (Result: Pistons Lost By 16)

☑️ Thursday 1/27: Warriors -5.5 vs. Timberwolves (Result: Warriors Won By 9)

☑️ Wednesday 1/26: Hawks -7.5 vs. Kings (Result: Hawks Won By 17)

☑️ Tuesday 1/25: Nikola Jokic Over 8.5 Assists (Result: 9)

☑️ Monday 1/24: Knicks-Cavaliers Under 204 (Result: 188)

❌ Friday 1/21: Bucks -8.5 vs. Bulls (Result: Bucks Won By 4)

☑️ Thursday 1/20: Suns-Mavericks Under 216.5 (Result: 210)

❌ Wednesday 1/19: James Harden Over 10.5 Assists (Result: 9)

❌ Tuesday 1/18: Pistons +15.5 at Warriors (Result: Pistons Lost By 16)

❌ Monday 1/17: Trail Blazers-Magic Over 215 (Result: 186)

❌ Friday 1/14: Raptors ML & Grizzlies ML Parlay (Result: Raptors & Grizzlies Lost)

☑️ Thursday 1/13: Grizzlies -4.5 vs. Timberwolves (Result: Grizzlies Won By 8)

❌ Wednesday 1/12: Spurs -6 vs. Rockets (Result: Spurs Lost By 4)

☑️ Tuesday 1/11: Grizzlies +100 ML vs. Warriors (Result: Grizzlies Won)

☑️ Monday 1/10: Bucks-Hornets Under 237.5 (Result: 202)

☑️ Friday 1/7: Raptors -11.5 vs. Jazz (Result: Raptors Won By 14)

☑️ Thursday 1/6: Pistons-Grizzlies Under 220 (Result: 206)

☑️ Wednesday 1/5: Hornets -9.5 vs. Pistons (Result: Hornets Won By 29)

❌ Tuesday 1/4: LeBron James Over 48.5 P&R&A (Result: 41)

☑️ Monday 1/3: Hawks-Blazers Over 226 (Result: 267)

☑️ Tuesday 12/28: Nuggets-Warriors Under 217.5 (Result: 167)

☑️ Wednesday 12/22: Thunder +5.5 vs. Nuggets (Result: Thunder Won By 14)

☑️ Tuesday 12/21: Suns -6.5 vs. Lakers (Result: Suns Won By 18

☑️ Monday 12/20: Thunder +8.5 vs. Grizzlies (Result: Thunder Won By 3)

☑️ Friday 12/17: LaMelo Ball & Damian Lillard 6+ 3s Combined (Result: 9)

☑️ Thursday 12/16: Pistons +10 at Pacers (Result: Pistons Lost By 9)

❌ Wednesday 12/15: Dewayne Dedmon Over 0.5 3s (Result: 0)

☑️ Tuesday 12/14: Raptors +8.5 at Nets (Result: Raptors Lost By 2)

❌ Monday 12/13: Hawks -11.5 vs. Rockets (Result: Hawks Lost By 6)