Karpuc: My Favorite Bet On Thursday’s NBA Slate

This bet is standing out to me for many reasons

The Pick: Warriors -5.5 vs. Timberwolves

Under Steve Kerr, the Warriors have gone 114-77 (59.7%) ATS avenging a loss to an opponent that scored 100+ points against them. That’s a mouthful, but Golden State lost to the T-Wolves in Minnesota by the score of 119-99 back on January 16th. That’s one of the reasons why the model is recommending this pick and why I’m also on board with it.

Stephen Curry and company are coming off a dominant 130-92 victory over the Mavericks on Tuesday night and were clicking on all cylinders in that one, despite the fact that Draymond Green was out. In that blowout win, Golden State shot 53.3% from the field, held Dallas to 35.2% and the Warriors outrebounded the Mavs 58-to-38. Additionally, Golden State amassed 31 assists and moved the basketball effectively all night long against what was the NBA’s top defense in January. 

Although Green is an essential part of Golden State’s eventual playoff aspirations, last game proved they can still be dangerous without him. What’s scary is that Klay Thompson hasn’t flashed his potential, Green is injured, James Wiseman hasn’t played yet this season and Stephen Curry has been in a shooting slump over the last month or so. With that being said, Golden State is 35-13 overall and are in 2nd place in the Western Conference. Watch Andrew Wiggins in this contest; he’s squaring off against his former team. 

Golden State has gone 22-4 SU and 16-8 ATS at home this season while Minnesota has gone 0-5 ATS in their last five road games. For all of those reasons, I absolutely love the Warriors to cover the spread in this spot.

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Karpuc’s Published NBA Picks: 2021-2022 Season (18-9, 66.7%)

☑️ Wednesday 1/26: Hawks -7.5 vs. Kings (Result: Hawks Won By 17)
☑️ Tuesday 1/25: Nikola Jokic Over 8.5 Assists (Result: 9)
☑️ Monday 1/24: Knicks-Cavaliers Under 204 (Result: 188)
❌ Friday 1/21: Bucks -8.5 vs. Bulls (Result: Bucks Won By 4)
☑️ Thursday 1/20: Suns-Mavericks Under 216.5 (Result: 210)
❌ Wednesday 1/19: James Harden Over 10.5 Assists (Result: 9)
❌ Tuesday 1/18: Pistons +15.5 at Warriors (Result: Pistons Lost By 16)
❌ Monday 1/17: Trail Blazers-Magic Over 215 (Result: 186)
❌ Friday 1/14: Raptors ML & Grizzlies ML Parlay (Result: Raptors & Grizzlies Lost)
☑️ Thursday 1/13: Grizzlies -4.5 vs. Timberwolves (Result: Grizzlies Won By 8)
❌ Wednesday 1/12: Spurs -6 vs. Rockets (Result: Spurs Lost By 4)
☑️ Tuesday 1/11: Grizzlies +100 ML vs. Warriors (Result: Grizzlies Won)
☑️ Monday 1/10: Bucks-Hornets Under 237.5 (Result: 202)
☑️ Friday 1/7: Raptors -11.5 vs. Jazz (Result: Raptors Won By 14)
☑️ Thursday 1/6: Pistons-Grizzlies Under 220 (Result: 206)
☑️ Wednesday 1/5: Hornets -9.5 vs. Pistons (Result: Hornets Won By 29)
❌ Tuesday 1/4: LeBron James Over 48.5 P&R&A (Result: 41)
☑️ Monday 1/3: Hawks-Blazers Over 226 (Result: 267)
☑️ Tuesday 12/28: Nuggets-Warriors Under 217.5 (Result: 167)
☑️ Wednesday 12/22: Thunder +5.5 vs. Nuggets (Result: Thunder Won By 14)
☑️ Tuesday 12/21: Suns -6.5 vs. Lakers (Result: Suns Won By 18
☑️ Monday 12/20: Thunder +8.5 vs. Grizzlies (Result: Thunder Won By 3)
☑️ Friday 12/17: LaMelo Ball & Damian Lillard 6+ 3s Combined (Result: 9)
☑️ Thursday 12/16: Pistons +10 at Pacers (Result: Pistons Lost By 9)
❌ Wednesday 12/15: Dewayne Dedmon Over 0.5 3s (Result: 0)
☑️ Tuesday 12/14: Raptors +8.5 at Nets (Result: Raptors Lost By 2)
❌ Monday 12/13: Hawks -11.5 vs. Rockets (Result: Hawks Lost By 6)