Karpuc: My Favorite Pick On Friday’s NBA Slate
This bet is standing out to me for many reasons
Dan Karpuc - Jan 28, 2022, 10:37am EST
The Pick: Pistons +3.5 at Magic
Let me first state the obvious: it’s best not to make a habit betting on Detroit. However, it’s impossible not to like them in this spot, as you'll see in a second.
Using BetQL’s Schedule & Result tool, I see that the Pistons have gone 4-4 SU over their last eight games, but have gone 7-1 ATS in that span. Meanwhile, the Magic have gone 1-5 ATS in their last six contests and have gone 2-15 SU over their last 17 games dating back to the end of December. Orlando is the worst team in the NBA and have made sure to prove that this month.
In January, the Magic rank dead-last in Offensive Rating, per NBA.com. To make matters more troubling for Orlando, they’ve gone just 3-18 SU and 5-16 ATS at home this season, which is mind-boggling and horrendous. Even though Detroit has been awful on the road, going 4-20 SU, they’ve gone 12-12 ATS, which is crucial to know in this situation.
The x-factor will be Pistons rookie and No. 1 overall pick Cade Cunningham. He had the best performance of his young career last game when he dropped 34 points, eight rebounds, eight assists, four blocks and two steals in a five-point loss to the Nuggets. His confidence should be at an all-time high in this matchup, especially since he became the first rookie since Michael Jordan to put up that stat line.
This is a “what you’ve done lately” league and I want to exploit the negative direction the Magic are sinking into, even against a similarly-bad opponent.
