Karpuc: My Favorite Pick On Friday’s NBA Slate

This bet is standing out to me for many reasons

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The Pick: Pistons +3.5 at Magic

Let me first state the obvious: it’s best not to make a habit betting on Detroit. However, it’s impossible not to like them in this spot, as you'll see in a second.

Using BetQL’s Schedule & Result tool, I see that the Pistons have gone 4-4 SU over their last eight games, but have gone 7-1 ATS in that span. Meanwhile, the Magic have gone 1-5 ATS in their last six contests and have gone 2-15 SU over their last 17 games dating back to the end of December. Orlando is the worst team in the NBA and have made sure to prove that this month.

In January, the Magic rank dead-last in Offensive Rating, per NBA.com. To make matters more troubling for Orlando, they’ve gone just 3-18 SU and 5-16 ATS at home this season, which is mind-boggling and horrendous. Even though Detroit has been awful on the road, going 4-20 SU, they’ve gone 12-12 ATS, which is crucial to know in this situation.

The x-factor will be Pistons rookie and No. 1 overall pick Cade Cunningham. He had the best performance of his young career last game when he dropped 34 points, eight rebounds, eight assists, four blocks and two steals in a five-point loss to the Nuggets. His confidence should be at an all-time high in this matchup, especially since he became the first rookie since Michael Jordan to put up that stat line. 

This is a “what you’ve done lately” league and I want to exploit the negative direction the Magic are sinking into, even against a similarly-bad opponent. 

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Bet $10 On An NBA Moneyline & Win $200 If Your Team Makes A Single 3-Pointer!
New BetMGM users only: bet $10 on an NBA moneyline and win $200 if your team makes one three-pointer!

Karpuc’s Published NBA Picks: 2021-2022 Season (19-9, 67.9%)

☑️ Thursday 1/27: Warriors -5.5 vs. Timberwolves (Result: Warriors Won By 9)
☑️ Wednesday 1/26: Hawks -7.5 vs. Kings (Result: Hawks Won By 17)
☑️ Tuesday 1/25: Nikola Jokic Over 8.5 Assists (Result: 9)
☑️ Monday 1/24: Knicks-Cavaliers Under 204 (Result: 188)
❌ Friday 1/21: Bucks -8.5 vs. Bulls (Result: Bucks Won By 4)
☑️ Thursday 1/20: Suns-Mavericks Under 216.5 (Result: 210)
❌ Wednesday 1/19: James Harden Over 10.5 Assists (Result: 9)
❌ Tuesday 1/18: Pistons +15.5 at Warriors (Result: Pistons Lost By 16)
❌ Monday 1/17: Trail Blazers-Magic Over 215 (Result: 186)
❌ Friday 1/14: Raptors ML & Grizzlies ML Parlay (Result: Raptors & Grizzlies Lost)
☑️ Thursday 1/13: Grizzlies -4.5 vs. Timberwolves (Result: Grizzlies Won By 8)
❌ Wednesday 1/12: Spurs -6 vs. Rockets (Result: Spurs Lost By 4)
☑️ Tuesday 1/11: Grizzlies +100 ML vs. Warriors (Result: Grizzlies Won)
☑️ Monday 1/10: Bucks-Hornets Under 237.5 (Result: 202)
☑️ Friday 1/7: Raptors -11.5 vs. Jazz (Result: Raptors Won By 14)
☑️ Thursday 1/6: Pistons-Grizzlies Under 220 (Result: 206)
☑️ Wednesday 1/5: Hornets -9.5 vs. Pistons (Result: Hornets Won By 29)
❌ Tuesday 1/4: LeBron James Over 48.5 P&R&A (Result: 41)
☑️ Monday 1/3: Hawks-Blazers Over 226 (Result: 267)
☑️ Tuesday 12/28: Nuggets-Warriors Under 217.5 (Result: 167)
☑️ Wednesday 12/22: Thunder +5.5 vs. Nuggets (Result: Thunder Won By 14)
☑️ Tuesday 12/21: Suns -6.5 vs. Lakers (Result: Suns Won By 18
☑️ Monday 12/20: Thunder +8.5 vs. Grizzlies (Result: Thunder Won By 3)
☑️ Friday 12/17: LaMelo Ball & Damian Lillard 6+ 3s Combined (Result: 9)
☑️ Thursday 12/16: Pistons +10 at Pacers (Result: Pistons Lost By 9)
❌ Wednesday 12/15: Dewayne Dedmon Over 0.5 3s (Result: 0)
☑️ Tuesday 12/14: Raptors +8.5 at Nets (Result: Raptors Lost By 2)
❌ Monday 12/13: Hawks -11.5 vs. Rockets (Result: Hawks Lost By 6)