This is featured in my daily Underdog Picks article for a few reasons! OKC has covered three straight times, five out of their last seven opportunities and have gone 18-11 ATS overall. Further, they’ve gone 11-3 ATS after allowing 105 points or less in their previous game. Meanwhile, the Nuggets have gone just 13-16 ATS this season and an abysmal 18-36 ATS coming off an upset win as a road underdog under coach Mike Malone. Give me the young, hungry Thunder at +5.5 in this matchup as they continue to consistently outperform expectations.
The last time these teams met, they went well over 227.5 (a 123-114 Bucks win in Houston), but that was before COVID hit the Bucks, who will likely still be missing Giannis Antetokounmpo tonight. Milwaukee is just 12-20 O/U this season, including 4-11 at home and 9-14 as the favorite. If Antetokounmpo remains sidelined, this is a ⭐⭐⭐⭐ bet according to BetQL, which says the total should be more like 222 points in this matchup.
The Celtics have beaten the Cavaliers and covered the spread against them as the favorite once already this season. Boston is also 38-23 ATS against good defensive teams allowing 108.0 points per game or less over the last three years. BetQL projects the Celtics as an 8-point favorite against Cleveland, so there's value in this pick.
The Rockets continue to deliver value even with their 10-21 record. Houston is 9-7 ATS on the road, 8-7 ATS as road dog and 6-3 ATS in their last nine. Plus, the Bucks are just 1-12 ATS against Southwest division teams over the last two years.
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