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This is featured in my daily Underdog Picks article for a few reasons! OKC has covered three straight times, five out of their last seven opportunities and have gone 18-11 ATS overall. Further, they’ve gone 11-3 ATS after allowing 105 points or less in their previous game. Meanwhile, the Nuggets have gone just 13-16 ATS this season and an abysmal 18-36 ATS coming off an upset win as a road underdog under coach Mike Malone. Give me the young, hungry Thunder at +5.5 in this matchup as they continue to consistently outperform expectations.
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The last time these teams met, they went well over 227.5 (a 123-114 Bucks win in Houston), but that was before COVID hit the Bucks, who will likely still be missing Giannis Antetokounmpo tonight. Milwaukee is just 12-20 O/U this season, including 4-11 at home and 9-14 as the favorite. If Antetokounmpo remains sidelined, this is a ⭐⭐⭐⭐ bet according to BetQL, which says the total should be more like 222 points in this matchup.
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The Celtics have beaten the Cavaliers and covered the spread against them as the favorite once already this season. Boston is also 38-23 ATS against good defensive teams allowing 108.0 points per game or less over the last three years. BetQL projects the Celtics as an 8-point favorite against Cleveland, so there's value in this pick.
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The Rockets continue to deliver value even with their 10-21 record. Houston is 9-7 ATS on the road, 8-7 ATS as road dog and 6-3 ATS in their last nine. Plus, the Bucks are just 1-12 ATS against Southwest division teams over the last two years.
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