Karpuc: My Favorite Bet On Monday’s NBA Slate

This bet is standing out to me for many reasons

Dan Karpuc - Jan 10, 2022, 3:23pm EST

Last Week’s Picks (3-0)

The Pick: Bucks at Hornets Under 237.5 Points

Charlotte defeated Milwaukee by the score of 114-106 last time out in this same matchup and with Jrue Holiday out once again, the Bucks offense will be missing a key figure. Looking up and down this roster, there’s no true facilitator that will take the floor for the road team.

In that game on Saturday, Giannis Antetokounmpo scored 43 points after going 18-of-20 from the free throw line and only he, Khris Middleton and Bobby Portis scored in double-figures. The Bucks’ bench went 2-of-15 shooting for five points in the loss and have another dim outlook in this contest.

Overall, I just don’t think they have enough offensive firepower that this 237-point total requires and the BetQL model agrees and projects 229 total points.

While the Hornets will be at full strength and led by a dynamic offense featuring LaMelo Ball, Terry Rozier, Miles Bridges and Gordon Hayward, the model is projecting them to score 113.5 points, below their 115.5-point average (2nd in NBA).

Looking at the BetQL game page, you can see that the under has gone 6-1 in Bucks games with a 229+ point total this season and I’m expecting that to be the result here. In my opinion, this total should realistically be in the low-to-mid 220s.