MLB Betting Playbook for Monday, April 25
Today's MLB betting odds, trends and picks you need to know
Bryan Zarpentine - Apr 25, 2022, 1:45pm EDTMLB Betting Playbook for Monday
After a wild baseball weekend, things slow down on Monday with just seven games on the schedule. But these seven games shouldn’t disappoint, especially if you’re up to date on the latest betting trends and top bets available. Let’s check out everything you need to know about Monday’s MLB schedule.
One trend to note is that the BetQL model has been mashing on O/U picks rated ⭐⭐⭐ and higher in the last seven days, going 23-15 (61%) for a total return of $564 on $100 bets! BetQL subscribers can see more betting trends and all of our best bets with star ratings for every game. Sign up for a BetQL Day Pass and see our best bets across all sports!
Odds in this article are subject to change. Check the latest MLB betting lines here: Latest MLB Odds | Latest Over/Under | Expert MLB picks
MLB BEST BET
Dodgers -190 at D-backs ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
The Diamondbacks are going to get picked on a lot this season, especially when they play teams like the Dodgers. The BetQL model gives this pick five-star value and might even give it six or seven stars if that were an option. The early moneyline for the Dodgers was -185, but the BetQL model has them listed at -334 with a nearly 77% chance of winning.
Those numbers could be even higher if it weren’t for Merrill Kelly getting the start for Arizona. He’s allowed just one run over 15.1 innings across his first three starts of the season. Kelly has been one of the few bright spots for the Diamondbacks this season with two of Arizona’s six wins coming in games he started.
But Kelly has only finished six innings in one of his three starts. That means the Arizona bullpen will have some work to do against the Dodgers, who are averaging 5.5 runs per game and fresh off a 10-run game on Sunday. Most of the usual subjects in the L.A. lineup have gotten off to fast starts in 2022. Granted, Mookie Betts and Max Muncy have slumped a little, but Cody Bellinger already has four home runs in 15 games while Freddie Freeman has been red-hot, giving the Dodgers two former MVPs to carry their lineup.
TOP MLB PLAYER PROP
Shane Bieber Over 6.5 Strikeouts at Angels
We haven’t seen Bieber’s elite strikeout stuff return (yet), but that could change soon. He’s recorded 16 strikeouts through 16.0 innings pitched compared to just three walks, and his 2.25 ERA and 0.69 WHIP prove he’s been off to an effective start. His pitch count and this matchup are encouraging. He’s thrown 72, 79 and 86 pitches in his three starts and should be in the 90+ pitch range in this one if all goes well. Los Angeles has struck out an average of 9.7 times per game this season, the second-highest mark in the Majors. With a slightly longer leash against a team with plenty of strikeout potential, this is a great spot for Bieber to deliver at least seven strikeouts. -- Dan Karpuc
MORE: BEST HITTER PROPS | BEST PITCHER PROPS
TODAY'S MLB GAMES & BETTING TRENDS
Giants at Brewers (-1.5), O/U 7
Probables: Sam Long vs Corbin Burnes
It’s been a mixed start for the Brewers, who are 10-6 SU but just 6-9 ATS. However, Milwaukee is always capable of winning a pitcher’s duel, going 57-34 under Craig Counsell against teams that allow 3.5 runs per game or less. That description fits the Giants, who are giving up just 2.6 runs per game after allowing just six total runs during their weekend sweep of the Nationals.
Rockies at Phillies (-1.5), O/U 8.5
Probables: Kyle Freeland vs Kyle Gibson
The Rockies took two out of three from the Phillies at Coors Field last week but will be big underdogs on Monday at the start of a four-game series in Philly. While the Rox are 10-5 on the season, Philadelphia starter Kyle Gibson is 7-0 over the last two years when pitching at home against a team with a winning record.
Red Sox at Blue Jays (-1.5), O/U 8
Probables: Nathan Eovaldi vs Jose Berrios
These teams played three games at Fenway Park last week, scoring just 15 total runs over those three games, hitting the under all three times. That explains why the Blue Jays and Red Sox are a combined 9-23 O/U this season, going over the run total just 28% of the time.
Mets (-1.5) at Cardinals, O/U 7
Probables: Max Scherzer vs Miles Mikolas
Scherzer is 3-0 with a 2.50 ERA and a 0.89 WHIP, which means the Mets have been victorious in all three of his starts. However, over the last two years, the Cardinals are 24-13 when they face a National League team with a starter whose WHIP is under 1.150 and 18-11 when the opposing starter has an ERA over 3.20.
Astros (-1.5) at Rangers, O/U 8
Probables: Framber Valdez vs Dane Dunning
The Astros open this series as favorites on the road, although they are just 3-4 SU as road favorites this season. Of course, the 5-10 Rangers are just 1-3 SU when they are home underdogs.
MORE PICKS: BEST JUICED PARLAYS | BEST ODDS BOOSTS
Guardians (-1.5) at Angels, O/U 8
Probables: Shane Bieber vs Michael Lorenzen
These are two of the top four teams in the majors at hitting the over. The Guardians get there 60% of the time while the Angels sit at 53.3%, as the two are a combined 17-13-1 O/U.
Dodgers (-1.5) at Diamondbacks, O/U 9
Probables: Walker Buehler vs Merrill Kelly
Forget about the Dodgers being heavy favorites in this game. These have been two of the worst teams in the majors at getting over the run total. Arizona hits the over just 27% of the time, which is the third-lowest percentage in the majors with the teams combining to go 9-20-2 O/U thus far.
MORE: SEE TONIGHT'S NBA BETTING PLAYBOOK FROM BETQL
BetQL subscribers can see more betting trends and all of our best bets with star ratings for every game. Sign up for a BetQL Day Pass and see our best bets across all sports!