Top 3 Hitting Situations For Monday, April 25
The Astros, Guardians and Dodgers are all in situations to take advantage of
Dan Karpuc - Apr 25, 2022, 1:40pm EDTOdds in this article are subject to change. Advanced stats below were found at FanGraphs. Check the latest MLB betting lines here: Latest MLB Odds | Latest Over/Under | Expert MLB picks
#3. Guardians vs. Michael Lorenzen, Angels
Game: Guardians at Angels, 9:38pm EST
Lorenzen has started two games for the Angels so far and has allowed 6 hits and 5 earned runs (including 2 HR) in 9.1 innings pitched. While he’s still transitioning to his starting role for the Angels after spending most of his career coming out of the Reds bullpen, it’s hard to assume that he will pitch deep into this game. The Guardians rank 2nd in the Majors in runs scored per game (5.21) and should benefit by the fact that Los Angeles’ bullpen has allowed 12 HR (2nd-worst) and pitched to a 4.37 ERA (4th-worst). The two guys I like most are Jose Ramirez (.362, 4 HR, 20 RBI) and Franmil Reyes (.182, 2 HR, 5 RBI), both of which have had proven, consistent pop over the years. Reyes is at +330 to hit a homer, but Ramirez is at +460 and is quite possibly my favorite bet of today’s entire MLB slate given his hot current form.
#2. Astros vs. Dane Dunning, Rangers
Game: Astros at Rangers, 8:05pm EST
In three starts this season, Dunning has pitched just 12.2 innings and surrendered 17 hits, 8 earned runs, including 2 HR. He’s also allowed a ton of hard contact: 51.3% of batted balls have qualified as hard hits so far, well above his 42.1% career rate (which was already bad). Assuming that Dunning doesn’t pitch deep into this game either, he will turn things over to a bullpen that ranks dead-last in the league in home runs allowed (13) and second-last in ERA (4.40). Dunning has allowed slash lines of .277/.356/.433 to left-handed hitters and .251/.323/.394 to right-handed hitters, so I’m going to target two lefties in particular: Yordan Alvarez (.158, 3 HR, 6 RBI) and Kyle Tucker (.127, 2 HR, 4 RBI). While both of them have struggled mightily to start the season, they’ve hit with power against right-handed pitchers since the start of last season. I expect Alvarez (+310) and/or Tucker (+475) to hit a homer.
#1. Dodgers vs. Merrill Kelly, D-Backs
Game: Dodgers at D-Backs, 9:40pm EST
Sure, Merrill Kelly has been brilliant through three starts (15.1 IP, 0.59 ERA), but he will face the best lineup in baseball in this matchup. Not only that, but some of these Dodgers have had a lot of success against him in the past, including: Cody Bellinger (5-12, 2 HR), Mookie Betts (4-12, 2 HR), Max Muncy (8-18, HR) and Will Smith (6-11, HR). Betts (.196, 2 HR, 5 RBI), Muncy (.140, 2 HR, 8 RBI) and Smith (.222, 1 HR, 7 RBI) have struggled to start the year, but Bellinger (.273, 4 HR, 8 RBI) leads this LA team in homers and is my favorite option to go yard tonight. Arizona’s bullpen is also really bad; they rank last in strikeouts (46), last in WHIP (1.39) and 3rd-worst in ERA (4.39). These are the following HR prices for the Dodgers above: Smith (+450), Bellinger (+425), Betts (+425) and Muncy (+370). I will likely sprinkle some on all four, but Bellinger is my No. 1 target.
