MLB Betting Playbook for Thursday, April 14
Today's MLB betting odds, trends and picks you need to know
Bryan Zarpentine - Apr 14, 2022, 2:45pm EDTOdds in this article are subject to change. Check the latest MLB betting lines here: Latest MLB Odds | Latest Over/Under | Expert MLB picks
It’s been a week since opening day and we’re still trying to figure some MLB teams out. Some teams are spending today wrapping up their second series of the season, while others are beginning their third. Either way, we’re starting to learn a little more about every team with each passing day. Based on what we’ve learned thus far, let’s check out some of the betting trends you should know about for Thursday’s MLB games.
One trend to note is that the BetQL MLB Model continues to rake early in the season, going 30-15 (67%) on of all its O/U picks rated ⭐⭐ and higher so far for a total return of $1,175 on $100 bets! BetQL subscribers can see more betting trends and all of our best bets with star ratings for every game. Sign up for a BetQL Day Pass and see our best bets across all sports!
MLB BEST BET
Braves-Padres Under 8 ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Both teams have high expectations for this season, but have gotten off to somewhat uneven starts, as the Braves and Padres begin a four-game series on Thursday night. That has the BetQL model favoring the under 8 in this game and, as mentioned above, the model has been on fire when it comes to MLB O/U picks.
The Padres have already stayed under five times in their first seven games. The San Diego lineup is averaging just 3.9 runs per game, and that may be hard to improve upon against Charlie Morton, who’s continued to be one of the most consistent pitchers in baseball, even in his late 30s.
Meanwhile, the Padres are sending Joe Musgrove to the mound on Thursday night. Musgrove was outstanding last year and gave San Diego six strong innings in his first start of the season. Obviously, the Braves have a lineup that’s capable of doing some damage. But if you take away the 16 runs they scored on Tuesday, the Braves are only averaging three runs per game, which points to a low-scoring affair with Musgrove matching up against Morton.
TODAY'S TOP MLB PLAYER PROP
Dodgers SP Walker Buehler Over 16.5 Outs Recorded (-120 at Caesars)
As seen last night, not even the allure of a perfect game will convince Dodgers manager Dave Roberts to pitch his starters deep into games, but if Buehler pitches 5.2 innings, he will win this prop. Buehler threw 78 pitches in 5 innings against the Rockies in his first start of the season and I expect him to throw around the 90-pitch mark in this outing if he’s effective. This Reds lineup doesn’t have many legitimate threats outside of Joey Votto, Tyler Naquin and Mike Moustakas, and I expect Buehler to easily cruise to a six-inning quality start. -- Dan Karpuc
TODAY'S MLB GAMES & BETTING TRENDS
Athletics at Rays (-1.5), O/U 8
Probables: Cole Irvin vs Josh Fleming
Somewhat shockingly, the A’s have started the season 3-3 while averaging six runs per game. However, under manager Kevin Cash, the Rays are 54-49 against American League opponents that average at least 5.4 runs per game.
Mariners (-1.5) at White Sox, O/U 9
Probables: Logan Gilbert vs Jimmy Lambert
The betting lines in this game are even despite the White Sox averaging more than twice as many runs as the Mariners. However, the White Sox are 21-7 at home under Tony La Russa when they have a moneyline between -100 and -150.
Cardinals at Brewers (-1.5), O/U 8
Probables: Adam Wainwright vs Brandon Woodruff
The Brewers have won two in a row and three of their last four games. However, they are just 1-5 against the spread early in the season with two of their three wins coming by just one run.
Nationals at Pirates (-1.5), O/U 9
Probables: Joan Adon vs JT Brubaker
Not much is expected of either of these teams, although the Pirates have won seven straight night games against NL East opponents when that team enters the game with a losing record.
Phillies at Marlins (-1.5), O/U 7.5
Probables: Kyle Gibson vs Sandy Alcantara
Not only are the Marlins 1-4 on the season, but they have also stayed under the run total in four of those games, a byproduct of averaging just 2.8 runs per game but only allowing four runs per game.
Blue Jays at Yankees (-1.5), O/U 8.5
Probables: Kevin Gausman vs Luis Severino
Over the last 10 games between the Blue Jays and the Yankees, the underdog has won nine times. Meanwhile, in eight of Toronto’s last nine games, the total runs scored has hit the under.
Angels (-1.5) at Rangers, O/U 8.5
Probables: Shohei Ohtani vs Dane Dunning
The Angels have become the kings of staying under the run total this season, staying under in five of their six games while Texas is 2-2-1 on over/unders thus far.
Braves at Padres (-1.5), O/U 8
Probables: Charlie Morton vs Joe Musgrove
The Braves have been road warriors under Brian Snitker, especially when favored. Under Snitker, Atlanta is 74-40 on the road with a moneyline between -100 and -150.
Tigers at Royals (-1.5), O/U 8.5
Probables: Casey Mize vs Zack Greinke
The Tigers have lost back-to-back games to the Red Sox, dropping them to 2-4 on the season. However, Detroit is 57-33 under A.J. Hinch when coming off a loss.
Cubs at Rockies (-1.5), O/U 11
Probables: Justin Steele vs Kyle Freeland
The pitching matchup points to a high-scoring game, as does the over/under. Under Bud Black, the Rockies are 87-59 at home when the run total is either 11 or 11.5 runs, which could be a good omen for Colorado.
Reds at Dodgers (-1.5), O/U 8.5
Probables: Luis Cessa vs Walker Buehler
The Reds haven’t looked particularly competitive early in the season, which explains why they are heavy underdogs in Los Angeles on Thursday. But the Dodgers are far from a lock, as they are just 121-80 under Dave Roberts as a home favorite of -200 or more.
BetQL subscribers can see more betting trends and all of our best bets with star ratings for every game. Sign up for a BetQL Day Pass and see our best bets across all sports!