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As seen last night, not even the allure of a perfect game will convince Dodgers manager Dave Roberts to pitch his starters deep into games, but if Buehler pitches 5 ⅔ innings, he will win this prop. Buehler threw 78 pitches in 5.0 innings against the Rockies in his first start of the season and I expect him to throw around the 90-pitch mark in this outing if he’s effective. This Reds lineup doesn’t have many legitimate threats outside of Joey Votto, Tyler Naquin and Mike Moustakas and I expect Buehler to easily cruise to a six-inning quality start.
Lux may hit at the bottom of Los Angeles’ lineup, but he has a hit in all five of his starts this season. He will have the platoon advantage against Reds starter Luis Cessa and should benefit from seeing more hittable pitches all year long, as opposing pitchers will undoubtedly be more aggressive in the strike zone before the order rolls back to Mookie Betts, Trea Turner and company. After what was an up-and-down 2021 for the former top prospect, it seems like Lux is locked in and seeing the ball very well to start off the new campaign.
Unfortunately for Musgrove, this Braves lineup has a ton of discipline and works long counts. They are tied for the most walks per game (5.0) in the entire MLB. Since they rank in the middle of the back with 9.0 team strikeouts per contest, the matchup isn’t exactly great for Musgrove, who had a major issue with control towards the final stretch of last season. Also, Musgrove only threw 70 pitches in his first start which is notable because last April, he was kept under 81 pitches in three of his five starts, despite pitching well. Overall, it’ll be an uphill battle for him to get to 7+ punch-outs in this particular matchup.