BetQL Editors' NFL Picks For Falcons-Panthers TNF

Week 10 NFL Best Bets

NFL Week 10 opens with the Falcons visiting the Panthers on Thursday Night Football! To help you make the best bets tonight, the BetQL editors have picked a few of their favorite TNF bets below using key trends and data from the BetQL NFL model.

One key trend to note is that the BetQL NFL model went 14-5 (74%) last week on all picks rated ⭐⭐⭐⭐ and higher for a total return of $612 on $100 bets! BetQL subscribers can see more betting trends and all of our NFL best bets, including player props, with star ratings for every game. 

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MORE TNF: BETTING GUIDE | TOP PLAYER PROPS

Dan Karpuc: Over 41.5
On Oct. 30, the Falcons beat the Panthers, 37-34, in a thrilling overtime showdown. These two offenses opened up their playbooks in that fourth quarter, in which they combined for 34 total points. The outcome soared over the total in that one and I think this is a clear edge we can take advantage of once again this week. Just look at these numbers from the last meeting. Total yards: Panthers 478, Falcons 406. Yards per play: Panthers 6.5, Falcons 6.1. Neither defense stepped up and we’re less than two weeks removed from that contest, so I don’t expect any gigantic changes. On the season, the Panthers have allowed 25.3 points per game (fourth-worst) while the Falcons have allowed 25.0 points per contest (seventh-worst), so I’m giving both offenses a distinct edge over the defenses in this rematch. I’ll tease this up to over 49.5 for some extra upside.

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Lucy Burdge: Falcons -2.5
The Falcons are 6-3 ATS this season, though they have failed to cover in three straight, but the Panthers are just 3-6 ATS after losing by 21 at Cincinnati last week. But there are two important long-term trends to note here. First, over the last two years, the Falcons ​​are 6-0 ATS in road games where the line is +3 to -3. Second, over the last two years the Panthers are 0-7 ATS at home versus defenses allowing a completion percentage of 64% or worse. With all that in mind, I think Atlanta can cover this spread on Thursday Night Football.

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Brad Pinkerton: DJ Moore Over 55.5 Rec Yds (-110, FanDuel), Anytime TD (+188, BetRivers)

No team has allowed more targets (219), receptions (146) or receiving yards (1,905) to wide receivers than the Falcons, and only the Steelers have allowed more TD catches to the position (13 to 12). That is to say, Moore will have his chances to burn the Falcons again after he torched them for 6-152-1 in Week 8. Plus, he'll be looking for revenge after his post-TD penalty affected a missed PAT that cost the Panthers the win at Atlanta. Bet on Moore to be heavily involved again Thursday night.

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