Patriots Make Firm Decision On RB Rhamondre Stevenson

Patriots Put Faith In Stevenson

The Patriots just inked a four-year, $36 million extension with running back Rhamondre Stevenson. The deal includes $17 million guaranteed with incentives that could allow him to reach $48 million by the time the contract is up.

Stevenson rushed for 619 yards and four touchdowns in what turned out to be a shortened season. He played in just 12 games due to injuries but is expected to be fully healthy heading into this season.

Extending Stevenson's contract shows the desire for the Patriots' new leadership to put their mark on the organization. Alex Van Pelt just took over as offensive coordinator after spending the last three seasons in Cleveland where he has a track record of working with top backs such as Nick Chubb.

The hope for New England is that Stevenson will flourish under Van Pelt and return to his 2021 form when he rushed for 1,040 yards and five touchdowns. If that's what the Patriots expect from him this season, will that be enough to lead the league in rushing at 50-1 at DraftKings?

Should You Put Faith In Stevenson?

At +5000 odds, Stevenson is a longshot to lead the league in regular-season rushing yards. Christian McCaffery (+275), Jonathan Taylor (+600), Saquon Barkley (+650) and Breece Hall (+800) sit atop the board and make a much more convincing argument. After all, McCaffrey led the league rushing for 1,459 a season ago. That said, they don't present the value that Stevenson does.

With a few months to go until the start of the season, now is a good time to begin looking at longshots in the futures market. Stevenson has averaged more than 4.0 yards per carry in each of his three seasons and is considered one of the best young backs in the league.

The Patriots also signed another back, free agent Antonio Gibson, to a three-year, $11.25 million deal this offseason. Gibson will be Stevenson's backup on the depth chart and is likely to see significant playing time, but will be utilized quite a bit as a pass-catching back.

Stevenson will also be playing in an offense led by rookie quarterback Drake Maye. Does that mean New England's offense will be more run-heavy while Maye gets his feet wet? Maybe. But the Patriots also know that they're not a Super Bowl-caliber team, so Maye's learning curve might be a bit more generous.

While there is a lot of upside to Stevenson's game and this new era in New England, asking him to lead the league in rushing feels like a tall task. Since 2010, the league's rushing leader has only finished with fewer than 1,400 yards once. That was Kareem Hunt who tallied 1,327 yards in 2017.

Even at his best, Steveson just barely eclipsed the 1,000-yard mark and it's going to be tough to get there again with the offensive talent level around him. I'd recommend passing on this bet and looking at other longshots on the board!