TNF Week 10: Betting Lines, Odds & Picks For Falcons at Panthers

NFL BETTING LINES, ODDS & PICKS FOR FALCONS-PANTHERS

BetQL is your source for NFL best bets, live NFL public bets, live NFL sharp data, NFL line movement and historical betting trends in addition to our NFL articles that cover the sport from top to bottom. Scroll down to see all the best bets and key betting trends for this week's Thursday Night Football matchup.

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FALCONS AT PANTHERS PREVIEW

Raise your hand if you had the Falcons co-leading the NFC South Division heading into Week 10. Nobody? Anybody? Well… that’s exactly the case despite their 4-5 record, as Atlanta is tied with the Buccaneers and a full game ahead of the Saints (3-6) and Panthers (2-7), who will host them in this Thursday Night Football game. In the first meeting between these two teams on October 30, the Falcons walked away with a thrilling 37-34 overtime win.

The Falcons have consistently beaten the spread this year, as their elite 6-3 ATS mark indicates, and have gone 5-4 to the O/U thus far. Meanwhile, the Panthers have gone 3-6 ATS and 4-5 to the O/U to this point. 

Over the last two seasons, Atlanta has gone 6-0 ATS when the spread has been between +3 and -3, so if it stays in that range, know that they literally have not failed to cover or lose outright (6-0 SU, 106.7% ROI) in that situation. The Falcons have also gone a perfect 7-0 ATS 1H when playing a team with a losing record on the road over the last three seasons. Quarterback Marcus Mariota will look to play game manager again, as he’s only averaged 13.8 completions on 22.3 pass attempts (61.7% completion rate) for 173.4 passing yards per game this year. 

While Mariota has also added 304 rushing yards with three touchdowns (in addition to 10 passing touchdowns and six interceptions), this Falcons offense consistently fails to utilize uber-athletic tight end Kyle Pitts (23 receptions on 46 targets for 285 yards, 2 TD) and rookie wideout Drake London (33 receptions on 56 targets for 369 yards, 2 TD), which is very frustrating. (Pitts did have five catches for 80 yards and a touchdown the last time he matched up against this Carolina defense, so maybe there’s some optimism for him in this spot.) Now back from injury, running back Cordarrelle Patterson (5.4 yards per carry, 384 yards, 5 TD) should see the bulk of the touches on this archaic offense. He will be in a good spot to produce against a Carolina defense that just allowed Joe Mixon to score five touchdowns against them, including four on the ground.

Despite the fact that he went 3-of-10 passing for nine yards, no touchdowns and two interceptions in a 42-21 blowout loss to the Bengals on Sunday, P.J. Walker will get the start in this matchup. He went 19-for-36 passing for 317 yards, one touchdown and one interception in his previous start against the Falcons and led his team to a miraculous last-second Hail Mary to DJ Moore which might have won the game if it wasn’t for a missed extra point. That extra point try was made more difficult by Moore’s unsportsmanlike conduct penalty. By ripping off his helmet, he pushed the extra point try back, where Carolina’s kick sailed outside of the uprights.

You have to think this Panthers squad will be hungry for some revenge and playing for pride when thinking back to that result, especially after the dud they delivered on Sunday against the Bengals. Expect Moore and running back D’Onta Foreman (who took 26 carries for 118 yards and 3 TD against Atlanta last time) to be a huge part of their gameplan once again in the rematch.

Scroll down to see our model’s best bets for this matchup. In Week 9, BetQL went 14-5 (73.68%) on four and five-star bets for a total return of $612 on $100 wagers, so be sure to consult it in this matchup!

FALCONS AT PANTHERS BEST BETS

BetQL identified the following best bets for Thursday Night Football. Check out our best spread, moneyline and over/under bets below based on live sportsbook odds.

FALCONS-PANTHERS FINAL SCORE PROJECTION

Below, you’ll see our model’s final score projection with corresponding team grades for this Thursday Night Football matchup.

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