Bears Hype Has Gotten Out Of Hand

New QB Euphoria

Anytime that a football team gets a new quarterback, it is generally because the last guy had overstayed his welcome and was just not very good. While that is somewhat the case here with the Bears, Justin Fields certainly wasn't the worst signal-caller around, and some fans even wanted to keep him in town. However, the Bears decided that it was time to move on, so they shipped him to Pittsburgh.

In his place will be highly-touted prospect Caleb Williams, who steps into the NFL on what is likely the best team any No. 1 overall pick has ever been added to. How often does a team that won eight games get the first pick?

As a result, the hype surrounding the team hasn't been this high since 2019, the year after the Bears went 12-4 and won the NFC North. Going back to my first point, teams that get a new QB always have a ton of attention focused on them, especially when it is a rookie. I would advise caution buying into any of these teams like many people did with the Panthers last season when they drafted Bryce Young.

Great Situation, Questions Abound

There is no doubt that Williams will be stepping into a great situation for a rookie. He has a solid offensive line with some talented young players, two veteran star receivers in D.J. Moore and Keenan Allen, a very talented rookie top-10 pick in WR Rome Odunze and two solid tight ends that can be a security blanket. He also has a new quality running back in De'Andre Swift that he can hand it off to. Still, Williams has never taken a single snap of professional football. There is nothing that says that he is certain to be the same guy he was in college at this level.

On top of that, there is a new offensive coordinator in town for what seems like the millionth time in Chicago since I started watching them in 2006. The coaching staff was basically all but fired last season, and now all of a sudden, head coach Matt Eberflus is the favorite to win Coach of the Year? I'm not buying anything they are selling until they prove it to me.

Market Is Overvaluing Bears

The BetQL Model seems to agree with me, and that the market is seriously overvaluing Chicago right now. We are giving the Bears just a 33% chance to make the playoffs this season based on our simulations (10,000 sims for every game), which implied odds would say that is a +202 price. In the market right now, they are -120 to make the playoffs, implying a 55% chance that they do.

Taking "No" for them to make the playoffs nets you +100 odds, which we think is a great value.

We are giving them just a 12% chance to win the NFC North, implying they should be +733 in the market. They are +265 right now, which is about a 27% chance.

Don't buy into the hype, the Bears have NEVER proven to anyone that they can become a competent franchise.