Saints Undervalued In NFC South

No Guarantees In Division

Whenever you are looking at taking an underdog in a division, one of the first things you have to look at is how strong the "best" team in the division is.

One of the first things you notice when taking a look at the NFC South is that there is no sure thing, like a Kansas City or San Francisco kind of team. The Atlanta Falcons are favored to win the division at -115 with new veteran QB Kirk Cousins at the helm, but he has consistently had trouble staying healthy. Not to mention he has a 1st-round rookie QB in Michael Penix Jr. breathing down his neck.

After them, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are at +300. After a surprising playoff appearance last season, perhaps the market is overvaluing their chances to do that again. QB Baker Mayfield is a very streaky signal-caller, as we have seen throughout his career. It's hard to warrant a bet that they will repeat that success. New Orleans finds themselves in third place at +340, ahead of division cannon-fodder Carolina. The Panthers are +1100 after being the worst team in football last season, and they didn't have a first-round pick this year thanks to trading it away to Chicago last season to draft Bryce Young. It is unlikely that they will be contenders.

Saints Have The Talent

Along with Atlanta, New Orleans has the most established QB in the division with Derek Carr at the helm. He had a down year last season, but we know the numbers that he is capable of, and he looks to be healthy again coming into the 2024 season. Offensively, he is going to have plenty of weapons around him. WR Chris Olave will be there, as well as RB Alvin Kamara and the very versatile Taysom Hill. They have one of the better offensive lines in the NFC, which is key when it comes to really being a competitor.

Defensively, the team is loaded and was already one of the better units in football last year. CB Marshon Lattimore will be joined by rookie Kool-Aid McKinstry on the outside, and the defensive line was bolstered by adding former top pick Chase Young to Cameron Jordan opposite side. Demario Davis is still patrolling behind them at linebacker, and S Tyrann Mathieu is still covering the deep ball.

BetQL Simulation Results

The BetQL model has already been hard at work simulating the 2024 NFL season, and we have some data to share with you as to where the value may lie in this market.

As I had mentioned previously, the Saints are +340 to win the NFC South. After 10,000 simulations of every game, the model is giving the Saints a 37% chance to win the division, which correlates to about a +170 price tag. That means we are getting some serious value here on them to win the division. The model is also giving the Saints a 58% chance to make the playoffs next year, which is about -138 for a fair price. Well, you can get them at +170 right now just to make the playoffs, so again, lots of value in New Orleans to shock some people here and do some damage next year.