TNF Sharp Betting Report: Cowboys at Titans

Thursday Night Football will hopefully be exciting in Week 17. The Dallas Cowboys and Tennessee Titans square off, and believe it or not, the game actually has real meaning for both teams. Dallas wants to keep pace with the Eagles for the division while the Titans are fighting for their playoff lives.

BetQL is your one-stop source for best bets, live public and sharp betting data, written analysis, exclusive sportsbook offers, and all of the game-by-game analytics and data you can dream of.

Let's take a look at some of the data from the game below as we give you a sneak preview of some of BetQL's most helpful tools. You can also take advantage of BetQL's 3-day free trial and see all of today's best bets, plus what the model is picking for all sports, including NCAAF Bowl Games. Start your free trial today!

Note: data below was found on BetQL 24 hours before kickoff. Numbers will most likely change leading up to game time.

Line Movement: Spread

Not only has the spread moved a ridiculous amount, but it is also the largest movement of Week 17 to this point, per our Line Movement Dashboard. We opened with Dallas as a small three-point favorite on the road, but that has changed drastically. As of Wednesday, the Cowboys are now a massive -10 favorite over the home underdog Titans. That's a seven-point swing from the opener toward the road team. Obviously, the news of Ryan Tannehill's season-ending injury was a big contributor to this line movement, and the poor play of Tennessee in general over the last several weeks doesn't help. Malik Willis, the rookie signal-caller from Liberty, has looked horrendous in his stint as the starter for the Titans.

What this all means is that books have seen a massive influx of cash coming in on the Cowboys. You can clearly see this on our Line Movement dashboard, which will show you the difference between the opening line and the current number. BetQL's star ratings change immediately when the sportsbooks change theirs, so you can always count on us to have the most updated number.

See our model's best bets for this game at the top of this article and be sure to check out all line movement data for this week's slate of games!

Sharp Money: Total

This week, the sharps seem to be going with the over on Thursday Night Football. This total has been bet down from 44.5 to 40.5, so a four-point swing towards the under, but maybe it has moved too far now. After all, this Dallas defense has been disgustingly bad over the second half of the season, so perhaps superstar RB Derrick Henry can rampage enough to reach the over here. Willis just has to be somewhat decent, although there is always an opportunity for a pick-six with him out there against Trevon Diggs, and a defensive score is huge for the over.

Sharps will be hoping to see that happen, and they don't need much to get over this very low number. At the time of this writing, 85% of the money is on the over and 66% of the total tickets are, a difference of 19% (the "Pro Betting Percentage"). Meanwhile, the under has attracted 34% of the total tickets and 15% of the money.

Therefore, sharp bettors are betting the over to hit. This data is available for every game of the slate for BetQL subscribers, so they always know which bet the high-rollers are backing. Compare this with our best bets for this game.

Public Bet: Spread

The public is unsurprisingly going with the Cowboys -10 here, expecting a romp for "Dem Boyz" over the struggling Titans. The public is usually on the favorites no matter what the number is because your average person isn't going to be doing tons of research to make a bet. Rather, they just see a winning team against a struggling team and bet it regardless. Willis has also looked very bad, and the QB matchup also plays a lot into which team gets the most attention from the public. A massive 71% of total spread tickets are on the Cowboys -10, so clearly the public is all over Dallas.

Betting against the public can be a smart strategy, though, when it creates value on the opposite side. It doesn't always pan out, so you always have to be mindful of how you're factoring in this data, but BetQL will help you make these decisions with our model projections and analysis. Find out if our model is aligned with the public: