While they aren't betting favorites, these two QBs are in solid situations to end up under center
By BetQL Staff - May 17, 2020, 11:56pm EDT
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MGM is listing a number of exciting preseason NFL props, including Week 1 quarterback starters.
Dak Prescott to take the first snap of the season for the Dallas Cowboys (-1000) and Carson Wentz to take the first snap of the season for the Philadelphia Eagles (-1000) are essentially free money. Although Prescott’s long-term contract situation is murky and the Cowboys bought in Andy Dalton, he is the unquestioned starter, as is Wentz despite the fact that the team brought in Jalen Hurts in the 2nd Round of the 2020 Draft.
Ryan Fitzpatrick of the Miami Dolphins (-500), Tyrod Taylor of the Los Angeles Chargers (-358) and Nick Foles of the Chicago Bears (-250) are also smart bets. Due to the unique circumstances of this offseason, don’t expect Dolphins rookie Tua Tagovailoa or Chargers rookie Justin Herbert to begin Week 1 under center. Not only did the Bears already decline Mitch Trubisky’s fifth-year option, but they already restructured the remainder of Foles’ contract that has an affordable three years and $21 million guaranteed left on it.
While Dwayne Haskins is a -250 favorite to win the Washington Redskins’ starting job, Kyle Allen (+200) is the better bet, as is Brian Hoyer (+500) of the New England Patriots, even though Jarrett Stidham is a -455 favorite there. Let’s go through these two interesting situations.
Haskins started seven of the nine games he appeared in during his rookie campaign and didn’t exactly light it up. In fact, he eclipsed the 200 passing yard mark just twice and finished with 1,365 yards, seven touchdowns and seven interceptions with a 58.6% completion rate.
Allen took advantage of an opportunity created when Cam Newton went down with an injury and started 12 of his 13 games played for the Carolina Panthers under coach Ron Rivera last season. He threw for 3,322 yards with 17 touchdowns and 16 interceptions with a 62.0% completion rate.
After Rivera became Washington’s new head coach, the team moved a 5th Round pick in the 2020 Draft in exchange for Allen. That’s not a coincidence, even if the young quarterback found himself in a bad situation with Teddy Bridgewater and arguably XFL standout P.J. Walker ahead of him on the depth chart.
Not only does Allen already know Rivera’s offensive system, but he acquired quality game experience running it last year. Plus, he was very clear that after talking to the coaching staff following the trade, he will compete for the starting job, per Redskins.com.
Scott Turner (Norv Turner’s son) is Washington’s offensive coordinator after serving as Allen’s OC in Carolina and will run a system that demands pushing the ball downfield and taking what the defense provides. This system reportedly features hundreds of concepts, formations and plays and took Allen a month and a half to feel comfortable running it in practice last year.
Since offseason training and voluntary workouts are suspended indefinitely, Allen’s familiarity with the playbook is not something to take lightly. In what will almost certainly be an abbreviated training camp and preseason, Haskins seemingly has a disadvantage to start in Week 1, even if he has the higher ceiling as a former 1st Round pick.
In his rookie 2019 regular season, Stidham threw four passes and one of them was a pick-six interception.
Playing behind former starter Tom Brady, Stidham did see substantial playing time in the 2019 preseason, where he completed 61-of-90 (67.8%) passes for 731 yards, four touchdowns and an interception in four games. He also showed some mobility, rushing for 88 yards on 17 attempts in those contests.
Hoyer played in two preseason games for the Pats and completed 18-of-22 passes (81.8%) for 202 yards, two touchdowns and an interception. He was then cut by New England, who clearly wanted to hold onto Stidham without carrying three quarterbacks on their roster. Hoyer went on to back up Jacoby Brissett on the Indianapolis Colts and ended up making four appearances (including a start), throwing four touchdowns and four interceptions with 372 yards (35-for-65 passing).
After getting released by the Colts this offseason, Bill Belichick swooped in and signed Hoyer for the third time in his career and his veteran presence and instant familiarity with the team’s playbook under offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels makes his +500 odds to win the starting job very juicy.
While the team also signed quarterbacks J’Mar Smith and Brian Lewerke as undrafted rookie free agents, the starting job will undoubtedly end up with either Stidham or Hoyer if they don’t end up signing anyone else.
Not only is this going to be a “prove-it” year for Brady with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, but Belichick will absolutely want to show that it was his system, not Brady’s ability, that won New England all of those rings. What better way to do that than by giving Hoyer the starting job and having him run the same well-oiled machine offense that Brady has been at the helm of?
Stidham’s upside is clear; that’s why he’s still in New England. Belichick clearly believes in him. But since Hoyer has been around the block, knows the playbook fully and is a what-you-see-is-what-you-get talent, Belichick will most likely feel much more comfortable going with the sure option rather than an unproven question mark, at least in Week 1.
Note that the analysis above and below do not necessarily reflect the view or position of BetQL. The discussed outcomes are also not guaranteed in any way.
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