About BetQL’s Best Bets
Explaining what best bets are, how we determine them and why bettors should use them
What Are Best Bets?
Our proprietary sports betting models assign a 1-5 star rating to every spread, moneyline and over/under bet. BetQL's best bets are determined by the difference between our projection and the consensus odds at sportsbooks.
Five-star bets are the most valuable bets, followed by four-star bets and so on. The 5-star bets are the best bets because our model indicates a significantly different outcome relative to the current sportsbook line. Conversely, 1-star bets indicate a projected line that is very similar to the sportsbook line. Here are a couple examples:
In the matchup between New Hampshire and Maine above, our model assigned a five-star rating to New Hampshire (-7.5) against the spread because it listed them as 10.5-point favorites (a three-point difference from the consensus line). Therefore, locking UNH in around the -7.5 mark on your favorite sportsbook would be recommended and backed by our model.
In the example above, over 221.5 total points in the Warriors vs. Blazers game is listed as a 3-star bet since our model projected the total to be 227, a 5.5-point differential. In this case, a 3-star bet didn’t indicate as much value as a 4-star or 5-star bet, but there’s still a noticeable edge.
How Best Bets Are Identified
Our model projects team performance and takes into account player performance, matchups, weather and injuries. From there, we set our own line, compare it with Vegas and assign a star rating to each spread, moneyline and over/under bet.
The team ratings use a strategic combination of historical team results, the current matchup (including anticipated starters) and the projected outcome. Team ratings are dynamic and will update based on major player injury news. The team’s offensive rating is the core piece and carries the most weight. The defensive rating as well as home field advantage are each significant factors. Other factors (weather, injuries, narratives, etc.) are taken into consideration and applied where appropriate.
Why Our Best Bets Change
There are a number of factors that could alter a star rating. Speculation around injuries, weather, narratives, etc. oftentimes move the line throughout the day/week leading up to a game and, since our evaluation of the matchup is relative to the sportsbook, will impact the star rating. Keep in mind that movement often revolves around the sportsbook looking to hedge against significant loss. Fortunately, our model is deaf to the noise, so you get consistent winners.
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