WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational Betting Preview

Congratulations to Shane Lowry on winning The Open on home soil! There is no let down in talent as the stars are playing in Memphis this week. The FedEx St. Jude has been upgraded to a World Golf Championship event this season. Forty of the Top 50 golfers in the world will tee it up at TPC Southwind. This is a no-cut event and there are only 64 golfers in the field. Dustin Johnson is the defending champion at the course and Justin Thomas is the defending champion of the WGC event. Unlike last week, weather should not be an issue. Temperatures are as high as the 90s with little-to-no wind.

The Course

TPC Southwind: Par-70, 7,224 yards

TPC Southwind is one of the longer courses on tour, especially considering it is a Par-70. This course requires golfers to be excellent off the tee and on approach shots. Most of the previous winners in this event have either finished inside the top 20 in SG:Off-The-Tee or SG:Approach-The-Green for the week. The course is designed by Ron Prichard with help from Hubert Green and Fuzzy Zoeller. It was built originally in 1988 and updated in 2004 by Loren Roberts. The greens switched from bentgrass to Bermuda and trees were removed from the course. The Bermuda greens run around an 11 to 12 on the Stimpmeter. The fairways are Zoysia and the rough is Bermuda. The course has a total of 94 bunkers and 10 water hazards. There are plenty of forced carries so it is not surprising that TPC Southwind consistently ranks around the 10th hardest course each year. 

The scoring average is usually 70.5 which is slightly over par. Seven of the par 4s measure over 450 yards. For example, the par-4 9th is 457 yards. It is a long dogleg right with a downhill approach over a lake guarding the green. Golfers will need to hit a long and accurate tee shot to be in position to find the green. Trees block the green if you are offline or on the wrong side. The par-3 11th is a 162-yard shot onto a small island green. It has even been compared to the historic 17th hole at TPC Sawgrass. Players will have to hit a short iron into the green and avoid the bunker guarding the front of the green. Another hole to highlight is the 239-yard par-3 14th. It always plays as one of the toughest holes on tour. The tee box is elevated and golfers have to carry water to an undulating green. This fair test of golf should make for a fun week to watch.

The Six Pack

Justin Thomas (16/1, DraftKings Sportsbook)  

Justin Thomas is warming up again with back-to-back top-11 finishes on links-style courses. His previous poor results at The Open even had people questioning if he could figure out that style of play. Now, he is back on a American course that fits his game. Thomas is ranked seventh in proximity from 150 yards to 175 yards which fits TPC Southwind. Golfers will find the most approaches in this range. Thomas is ranked 3rd in SG: ATG and 19th in SG: OTT which has proven to be the key stats in past winners. He checks the boxes for both course fit and current form.

Bryson DeChambeau (35/1)

Unlike Thomas, Bryson DeChambeau has yet to figure out links golf. Even with the missed cut at The Open, DeChambeau has two top-10s in his last three events. He is ranked 4th in Birdie Average and 21st in SG:OTT which matches up well at this course. Betting on DeChambeau at a no-cut event is great because you know that you are going to be guaranteed four rounds. With his ability to go low, he will always be in it even if he starts slow.

Matt Kuchar (35/1)

Matt Kuchar’s all-around game should flourish at TPC Southwind. He is ranked 5th in GIR% and 13th in SG:Tee-To-Green, and 18th in Driving Accuracy. Even though the course is on the longer side, the crafty veteran can still contend this week. Historically, the driving accuracy rate is only 54% and green in regulation is 58% at this course. Both of these rates are about 10% lower than average. Matt Kuchar may not be longest on tour but he has had success on long courses by being more accurate than many in the field. Kuchar has been great all season with two wins and seven finishes T16 or better in his last nine events. 

Danny Willett (100/1)

This is a unique week as the odds and format give sleepers a better chance than normal. Danny Willett is the first of three golfers to consider with over 100/1 odds this week. Thanks to the talent and limited field in the World Golf Championship, you can find golfers from 45/1 to 100/1 odds with similar skill levels. Normally, your 45/1 golfer is probably in the Top 50 and 100/1 is outside the Top 100 in rankings. Willett is more appealing than someone like Phil Mickelson at 70/1. Willett has great form coming into Memphis with three finishes inside the top 12 in his last four events. Golfers will see the most approaches from 150-175 yards this week. WIllett is first in proximity within that range this season.

Matthew Wolff  (125/1)

Matthew Wolff is the new kid on the block and he has one advantage over most of the other golfers in the field. Wolff is one of the few players who did not have to deal with overseas traveling and playing in a major. If he was priced at 70/1 odds or better, there would be less of an interest. However, his odds are at 125/1 which makes him a bet worth taking. We know he has the distance to play with anyone and it was great to see him not crack under pressure when he beat DeChambeau a few weeks ago.This week will be a great test to see how he performs when playing against the best golfers in the world.

Keith Mitchell (250/1)

Killer Keith Mitchell’s price of 250/1 is too good to not take a chance on him. A top 10 finish at 33/1 is also a great bet. He is ranked 6th in SG:OTT this season. Length will not be an issue for Mitchell. He can drive it with the best of them, ranking 25th in Driver Distance in 2019. We are also back on Bermuda greens which is huge for him. Mitchell has talked about how it makes a big difference. He feels a lot more comfortable with his reads and speed on Bermuda greens. All three of his top 10 finishes this season have been on Bermuda greens. 

Note:The advice above represents the writer's personal view and does not reflect or represent BetQL's stance or interest in any way.