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MLB Betting Picks For Today's Games: July 5

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Red Sox at Yankees Over 8 (-110, BetMGM)

Boston is sending RHP Tanner Houck to the hill for this game tonight against hated division rival New York, and I think he could get smacked around a bit. His advanced numbers all indicate regression from the minuscule 2.67 ERA that he owns right now. He has a 3.68 xERA and 2.97 xFIP, both numbers higher than his ERA. He's also never thrown more than 106 innings in a season and crossed that mark in his most recent start when he got destroyed by the Padres for seven earned runs in 4.1 innings. I'm curious to see if he can remain as productive going forward as the innings pile up. The Yankees may be slumping recently, but they still have the best offense in baseball against right-handed pitching with a 122 wRC+. With Houck having more regression due, maybe they can break out in the Bronx. The Red Sox bullpen also could be overtaxed here, as Thursday's extra-innings win against Miami had them use Zack Kelly, Greg Weissert, Brennan Bernardino, Justin Slaten, and Kenley Jansen.

LHP Nestor Cortes is pitching to his expected marks, with a 3.51 ERA in addition to a 3.21 xERA and 3.89 xFIP. He's a solid arm, and Boston's offense has been around average most of the season. However, it is certainly worth noting that Cortes has really had a hard time historically against the Red Sox, with a career 5.59 ERA against this lineup. It also doesn't help that after Cortes leaves, he gives way to a Yankees bullpen that has been horrendous as of late. As a whole, their relief pitchers own a 4.37 xFIP, which is bottom-5 in the league.

Winds are also expected to be blowing out to left field at around 10 mph, which only helps our cause here. I think 8 is just a tad low for this line.

Blue Jays at Mariners Over 7 (-120, BetMGM)

RHP Kevin Gausman will be handed the ball for Toronto in this contest, and he's a very intriguing pitcher this season. He owns a 4.75 ERA, but a very high 5.42 xERA and low 3.72 xFIP. It's rare when you see his expected numbers on opposite sides of his actual ERA, which is what makes him such a puzzle. Taking a look closer at his advanced numbers, he has a low strand rate of 66.1% and a high BABIP of .317, which would indicate positive regression. However, he has allowed a very noticeable increase in hard contact, with his HR/9 rate sitting at 1.38 this season. In comparison, that number was just 0.92 last year. The only thing that Seattle's offense is good at is hitting the ball hard when they actually do make contact.

On the other side, RHP Luis Castillo is due for a small bit of regression for the Mariners. He owns a 3.87 ERA, but a 4.01 xERA and 3.85 xFIP. His 75% strand rate is a bit high, with more baserunners expected to come home to the league average of 72%. He's also been hitting his regression hard recently, allowing 19 earned runs over his last 26 innings. Toronto will be in their stronger split as an offense against a right-hander as well.

Bullpen-wise, Toronto's is among the worst in baseball, with a 4.29 xFIP as a unit. Two of their arms, Jordan Romero and Yimi Garcia, just went to the IL, so they are also short-handed in addition to being bad. The Mariners have a far better bullpen but were forced to use four of their better arms Thursday in Andres Munoz, Ryne Stanek, Trent Thornton, and Austin Voth.

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