Best NRFI Bets For Today: No Runs First Inning Picks

Best NRFI Bets: April 25

Every day the team at BetQL has you covered with our favorite NRFI picks for today's MLB games. Find which games we love and why we think they are the best NRFI bets for today. You will get our picks, expert analysis, and the best line available. Tail us on our No Runs First Inning picks and let's get six out to cash out!

White Sox at Twins NRFI (-125, BetMGM)

Finally, we cash a NRFI in this series yesterday after losing the first two attempts at it on some fluke crap. Of course, the Twins scored four runs in the second inning, so we just barely avoided what would have been three straight YRFI's in this series. That would have been insane considering the NRFI has been juiced to the moon in every game between these two pitiful offenses. Minnesota remains the biggest threat to spoil us here, especially with the trash arm that the White Sox have out there today, but I still think this one is worth a full unit play.

As mentioned, Chicago will send RHP Michael Soroka to the mound to make his sixth start of the season, and he has been horrendous to this point. He's allowed 20 earned runs over 24 innings, compiling a massive 6.86 xERA and 5.75 xFIP. No matter how you look at it, the guy has been nothing short of a disaster up there, and he is the sole reason that this NRFI isn't closer to -150. The good news is that he will face a Twins offense that has generated an 88 wRC+ as a lineup vs. right-handers, which is a bottom-10 figure in MLB. They are batting just .206 as a lineup against them, so hopefully, he can give us one inning without being terrible.

RHP Simeon Woods Richardson will get the start for Minnesota, and he has only made one start so far this season. He went six innings against Detroit and allowed just a single earned run, so it was quite a successful outing. He posted a 3.54 xERA and 3.81 xFIP in that start, indicating that he's pretty much an average starter. Even average can dominate this White Sox lineup though, as they may be the worst offense in MLB history. They own a disgusting 65 wRC+ vs. right-handers while batting only .192 as a lineup against them. That is the worst in the league by a good margin.

I think if we can manage to get Soroka to have a clean inning, this cashes.

LEANS

These are some NRFI's today that I would bet but don't think are worth a full unit play:

Phillies vs. Reds - 1/2u

Red Sox vs. Guardians - 1/4u

Athletics vs. Yankees - 1/4u

*1/2u = Half Unit

*1/4u = Quarter Unit

What is a NRFI bet?

In baseball betting, NRFI stands for "No Run First Inning." It's a wager on how many runs will be scored in the first inning, with the focus being on zero runs being scored in the first inning!

Essentially, you're betting for there to be six outs recorded before any runs are scored. NRFI has become a popular betting option because it offers a quick result – you only need to wait for the first inning to be over.

How Often are No Runs Scored in the 1st Inning?

MLB games are a toss-up in the first inning when it comes to scoring. Roughly half the time, no runs are scored by either team in the opening frame. This might seem surprising considering the overall offensive increase in baseball. The reason for this quirk isn't entirely clear, but it happens around 50% of the time.

NRFI Betting Tips

Winning NRFI bets requires a keen eye on pitching matchups, team situations, and a tiny bit of luck. If you are looking to be more successful at NRFI bets, here are a few ways to improve your odds:

• Dominant Pitching is Key: Target starting pitchers with a low walk rate and a high strikeout rate. These pitchers limit baserunners and can rack up strikeouts to escape jams quickly. Ideally, these pitchers will have a history of success, not rookies or those coming back from injuries.
• Opposing Lineup Weaknesses: Check for injuries to key hitters, especially at the top of the lineup. A missing power bat can significantly decrease a team's early scoring chances. Additionally, if a team's top hitters are in a slump, it bodes well for an NRFI.
• Consider the Game Conditions: Cold weather or windy ballparks can make hitting difficult, favoring pitchers and potentially leading to fewer runs. Look for games played in ballparks known for being pitcher-friendly.
• Stay Informed: Watch for significant MLB line movement closer to game time. This could indicate a late lineup change favoring the offense, making NRFI less likely.

The Best NRFI Team from Last Year

With the 2024 MLB season still young, pinpointing the current best pitchers for No Runs First Inning (NRFI) bets can be tricky. We simply haven't seen enough games from each pitcher to establish a clear trend. However, to help you make informed decisions, we've provided some insights from the 2023 season.

The Miami Marlins dominated No Runs First Inning (NRFI) bets last season for a confluence of reasons:

Strong Pitching Staff: The core statistic behind their success was a dominant pitching staff. Their 97-61 NRFI record translates to a whopping 61% win rate, indicating their pitchers consistently shut down opposing offenses in the first inning.

• Jesús Luzardo: Luzardo’s First Inning ERA (First Inning Runs Allowed per 9 Innings Pitched) was 2.25, which is a very good mark. He allowed a total of 10 runs during the first inning in his 32 starts, and .88 WHIP. This translates to a .31 runs in the first inning per start. Luzardo was one of the best first inning pitchers in all of baseball.
• Braxton Garrett: Garrett’s First Inning ERA was almost as good but a bit below Luzardo at 3.00. Like Luzardo, Garrett was effective in the first inning last year. In 30 starts last year, Garrett allowed a total of 10 runs. That means per start Braxton gave up an average of .33 runs, which is extremely effective. His .97 WHIP he rarely allowed more than 1 base runner in his starts.
• Sandy Alcantara: Alcantara is well known as a Cy Young candidate, but Alcantara’s First Inning stats are up there with some of the best. His ERA was 3.54, was a bit high for the rest of the staff, but is still respectable. He allowed a total of 11 runs in the first inning of his 28 starts, which means per start he allowed on average .39. Unfortunately Alcantara will be out in the 2024 season, so keep that in mind before placing you NRFI bets on the Marlins
• Edward Cabrera: Cabrera’s First Inning ERA was right behind Luzardo at 2.37. Although he only had 19 starts last season he may have been most effective pitcher out of the group in the first inning. In those 19 starts he only allow an impressive 5 runs in the first inning. His WHIP was a little high at 1.32 in the first inning, so he may have had some luck behind him to put together such a great NRFI year.

Low First Inning Runs Scored: The data confirms this - the Marlins allowed an average of only .44 runs in the first inning. This incredibly low number speaks volumes about their own offense's inability to score runs early.

The Marlins averaged a meager .44 runs in the first inning, even worse on the road at .33 runs. This translates to one of the lowest scoring offenses in the league, ranking third-worst with an average of 4.07 runs per game overall.

In essence, the Marlins' weakness became their strength for NRFI bets. Their anemic offense rarely scored early, but their fantastic pitching staff consistently shut down opponents in the first inning, making them the clear leader in NRFI success last season.

The Best Sportsbooks to bet on No Runs First Inning

1. DraftKings: Offers a user-friendly interface with a wide range of NRFI betting options and competitive odds.
2. FanDuel: Provides daily NRFI promotions and boosts, making it attractive for maximizing potential returns.
3. Caesars Sportsbook: Rewards bettors with Caesars Rewards points for every NRFI wager, perfect for building long-term value.
4. BetMGM: Known for offering competitive lines and enticing new user bonuses that can be used on NRFI bets.

Need more Betting Picks?

Dive deeper into your betting strategy with BetQL's extensive suite of resources, including:

• MLB Computer Picks: Leverage the power of our advanced model to gain insights on potential winning MLB bets.
• MLB Over/Unders: Find expert analysis and data-driven predictions for MLB total run bets.
• MLB Prop Picks: Discover BetQL's expert picks for various player and game-specific MLB prop bets.
• MLB Public Betting Picks: See where the money is flowing and gain insights into public sentiment on upcoming MLB games.
• NIT Picks: Explore expert picks and betting trends for the National Invitation Tournament (NIT) college basketball games.
• NBA Over/Unders: Gain valuable analysis and predictions for NBA total point line bets.