NBA Betting Picks For Today's Playoff Games

NBA Playoffs: Betting Picks From BetQL

Welcome, basketball bettors, to your daily courtside companion for NBA betting! In this article, we will provide you with NBA betting picks and in-depth expert analysis backed by our BetQL model to give you an edge and help you win more bets.

Our team of analysts has sifted through the stats, dissected the matchups, and deciphered the storylines unfolding on the court, so scroll down to check out our favorite NBA bets for tonight. Also, be sure to subscribe to BetQL to get NBA picks from our computer model!

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NBA Betting Picks: NBA Finals

NBA Finals Game 5: Mavericks at Celtics Over 210 (-108, DraftKings)

The under has hit in every game of this series for a perfect 4-0 record. While there is a case to be made for the under again tonight, I'm going to argue the other side and take the over.

Jason Kidd mentioned in recent press conferences that Dallas will continue emphasizing pushing the pace as they did in Game 4. The Mavericks attempted 91 shots in that game, significantly higher than their other three games with 84, 80, and 86 shots. Had the Celtics not been blown out, we likely would have seen the over hit in Game 4.

The Mavericks changed their defense in Game 4, trying to run Boston off the 3-point line. This strategy worked to some extent, with the Celtics shooting just 17-46 (37.0%) from deep, but I also think it was a result of an off shooting night. When a team that shoots as many threes as the Celtics does has an off night, we're bound to see a lower score.

With Boston back at home with a chance to close out the series, I don't expect their poor shooting to continue. I do expect to see a lot of urgency from the Mavericks on the offensive end. They shoot about half as many threes as the Celtics, creating a math problem for themselves, but that's where pushing the pace and increasing their number of possessions comes into play.

This line is already on the move at most books. Since I began writing this article, it has moved from 209.5 to 210.5 at most places, but you can still get a flat 210 at DraftKings. Grab that before it ticks up even higher!

BetQL Staff Picks: NBA Finals Series Bets

Dan Karpuc: Boston Celtics -1.5 Games (+100, DraftKings)

If you think the Celtics match up well against this Mavericks team (like I do), this bet is essentially that Boston will win the series in six games or less. Rather than getting this at -210 and assuming the series will go seven games, I really like grabbing the extra upside and getting this at +100 over at DraftKings.

Sure, what Luka Doncic and Co. have shown in these playoffs has been impressive and Luka may be individually unstoppable, but let’s not gloss over how historically dominant this Celtics team has been. They ranked first in Offensive Rating, first in scoring margin, first in Net Rating, were the first team to clinch a playoff spot, the first to 40 wins, first to 50 wins, first to 60 wins, first to the Conference Finals and now first to the NBA Finals. Despite that, all we’ve heard is that Jayson Tatum is underperforming and this team has simply waltzed into the Finals. With Kristaps Porzingis slated to return, joining Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Jrue Holiday and Derrick White in the starting five, Boston is clearly the better overall team, in my opinion.

Slowing Doncic down is going to obviously be the most important task for Boston, not only as a scorer, but as a distributor. You can make the argument that there is no better team to match up against what he does best in the entire NBA. White and Holiday are elite perimeter defenders. Brown matches up with him in terms of size and trumps him in athleticism. Tatum, if asked, can play the five in a small-ball lineup that can switch on every screen, if that’s something that becomes necessary. This Boston crowd is going to get under Irving’s skin like they have in the past and I’m not at all a believer in guys like Derrick Jones Jr., P.J. Washington and Daniel Gafford. Al Horford, Porzingis and Tatum will have to rebound the basketball and prevent Dereck Lively II and Gafford from controlling the boards, but if that happens, I don’t see how the C’s will lose this series.

I wouldn’t be shocked if they sweep the Mavs or get the job done in five games, making a major statement to the rest of the NBA in the process. 

Kate Constable: Dallas Mavericks +1.5 Games (-120, DraftKings) 

The Celtics have the more talented team overall, but I would take Dallas' two best players, Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving, over Boston’s two best players, Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown. Luka and Kyrie are the best duo in this year’s postseason when it comes to closing games out, which is something the Celtics haven’t had to do yet. Indiana handed Boston multiple games in the final minutes of the Eastern Conference Finals because they didn’t have closers quite like Luka and Kyrie, especially with Tyrese Haliburton sidelined. The Cavs and Heat didn’t present much of a challenge for the Celtics either with all but one of Boston’s wins coming by double digits. That’s not to say that the Celtics won’t win these games, but they’ll have to show that they can execute down the stretch better than the Mavs who have proven capable of doing so. Dallas will also have the depth advantage in the frontcourt until Kristaps Porzingis returns. It sounds like there is a chance that he could play in Game 1, but after missing the last month, it might take him some time to shake off a bit of rust. I give the Mavs the coaching advantage with Jason Kidd, but the Celtics have the better role players. Overall, I think most of these games will come down to the final minutes and I trust Luka and Kyrie to close out enough of those to cover the +1.5 series spread.

Lucy Burdge: Celtics Win (-225), Series Over 6.5 Games (+225)
I am all in on the Celtics to win this series and I see them getting it done in seven games. I think this will be a real battle between these two teams and they will make this a true series. Plus, it would be perfect for the Kyrie Irving-Boston rivalry for this to be a full series with a Game 7. I know Irving said he has grown since he stomped on Lucky, flipped off Celtics fans and burned sage in the Garden, and sees this “as a healthy relationship” with Boston fans, but I think he’s lying. This is just a tactic. So I see the Celtics getting this done and doing it in seven games.

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