NASCAR Pick Sheet: Xfinity 500
Who to bet on in this week's race
There weren't many changes that could be done to the 2020 NASCAR Cup schedule. Most of their contracts with tracks were long-term and limited to minor adjustments in dates, but they made the most of the changes they were allowed.
Two of these involved the short, flat tracks. Martinsville moved into the final slot of the Round of 8, immediately preceding the new season-ender at Phoenix—another minimally-banked track.
The result is two-fold. Short tracks are wild card races where a little beating and banging isn't only accepted, but expected. There are still three slots open for the Championship 4 and last week showed that none of the playoff contenders are safe. That will result in an extremely volatile Xfinity 500 and some hurt feelings when the checkers wave.
Just before last week’s epic rain delay, Denny Hamlin and Kevin Harvick both experienced problems. Hamlin got loose on the wet pavement and fell rapidly back through the pack. Harvick slammed the wall and damaged his car. He lost a lap in the process and as NBC signed off to wait out three days of weather delays, only two positions separated second from sixth in the standings.
Both drivers recovered nicely, but the lesson resonated through the field. The same scenario could unfold this Sunday, and that puts added pressure on every playoff contender in the field.
Short tracks are drivers’ courses, which mean that the most skilled racers will battle for the lead. That's reflected in this week’s handicaps where the top seven drivers are all listed at +900 or better.
1. Martin Truex Jr. *****
($11,800 DraftKings | +325)
Drivers prove their worth when their backs are against the wall. Truex’s trouble has been self-inflicted with back-to-back penalties at Kansas and Texas, and while he's not mathematically eliminated on points, the only way to guarantee he makes it to Phoenix in playoff contention is to win. He’s done that in the last two Martinsville races.
2. Ryan Blaney *****
($10,700 DraftKings | +900)
Blaney has been inconsistent on short, flat tracks this year with only one top-10 finish in four starts. Fortunately, that came at Martinsville in their first race of the season when he finished second to Truex. His runner-up effort is one of four top-fives in the last five Martinsville races.
3. Denny Hamlin ***
($10,200 DraftKings | +550)
On any short, flat track, Hamlin should be a favorite. He’s great at Martinsville, Richmond, Phoenix, and New Hampshire, but his erratic performance during the playoffs has him downgraded to three stars in our Best Bet analysis. Bettors need to decide if he has been saving his best efforts for the minimally-banked tracks or if he has truly lost his momentum.
4. Chase Elliott ****
($10,400 DraftKings | +850)
Luck was simply not on Elliott’s side last week. He came in for a two-tire change near the end of Stage 2 and immediately experienced a vibration on returning to the track. His left front was corded and he was forced to pit a second time, which cost him a lap and the opportunity to capitalize on the misfortunes of Harvick and Hamlin. Now he needs to win on a track where he has top-fives in only a third of his starts.
5. Brad Keselowski *****
($11,400 DraftKings | +550)
Texas has never been one of Keselowski’s better tracks; in fact, in terms of career average finishes, it ranks fourth-worst. That didn’t matter last week, as he scored his 10th top-10 there. All he really needs to do is outrun the drivers below him in the points standings. Given that he has a win and eight top-fives on this track in the last nine races, that's an easy goal.
6. Kyle Busch *****
($9,600 DraftKings | +850)
Now that he has broken through with a victory, it could be hard to stop Busch. From fall of 2015 through spring of 2019, he earned two Martinsville victories and eight-consecutive top-fives. He stumbled and finished 14th in this race last year. He was 19th in the summer Blue-Emu 500, so the safer bet is that he will challenge for a top-five and let his teammates concentrate on the playoffs.
7. Kevin Harvick *****
($11,000 DraftKings | +1000)
It seems odd to find Harvick ranked down the order on DraftKings Sportsbook. They have him seventh on their odds chart, but that's about where he should finish. He hasn't scored a top-five on this track since the spring of 2018, but three of his last four attempts ended between sixth and 10th.
8. Joey Logano *****
($9,900 DraftKings | +850)
Logano has been hit or miss at Martinsville. When he finds the groove, he's capable of challenging for a top-five like he has done in a third of his attempts since 2011. He aggressively moved Truex out of the groove in 2018 to qualify for the Championship 4. Unfortunately, he’s also missed the top-15 about as often in the last eight years.
9. Alex Bowman ****
($8,700 DraftKings | +2500)
Bowman finished third at Kansas and fifth at Texas, but still finds himself too far down in the points to make a serious charge. He’s going to have to win this week if he wants to be part of the playoff picture at Phoenix. This has been a great track for Hendrick Motorsports in the past, but none of their current drivers have the skill of Jeff Gordon or Jimmie Johnson in their heyday.
10. Jimmie Johnson *****
($9,300 DraftKings | +3300)
When we say none of the Hendrick brigade has the skill of their former heroes, we’re including Johnson himself. There are a couple of reasons to be hopeful, however; if Johnson can get track position in the final laps of the Xfinity 500, it’s going to be hard to deny him the position. Also, this was the site of Gordon’s 93rd and final win of his career – a feat that locked him into the playoffs that season.
Ryan Newman *
($6,500 DraftKings | +10000)
Don’t let Newman’s single star in the Best Bets ranking fool you. This is a track that rewards stubbornness and Newman will bulldog his way into the top-15. That will make him a great DraftKings fantasy NASCAR value.
Matt DiBenedetto *
($7,000 DraftKings | +6000)
DiBenedetto earned the eighth-most DraftKings points (50) this June in the Blue-Emu 500 and he’s only gotten better since.
JH Nemechek *
($5,700 DraftKings | +50000)
It has been easy to overlook Nemechek while the cameras have been focused on Cole Custer, Tyler Reddick, and Christopher Bell, but he has consistently earned points in the DraftKings game with an average of 32 in the last 45 days.
