Is Ken Barkley Betting the Florida Win Total?

Yesterday, Ken Barkley and Chris Rongey discussed the upcoming College Football season on You Better You Bet.

Ken had some great thoughts, so here are the nuggets that stuck out:

Barkley on the Florida Win Total

You would think replacing Trask and some other NFL caliber players, that this would be a fun win total to breakdown. This is one of the most boring conversations imaginable.

Florida is going to be favored by more than two TDs in six of their 12 games this year. The extreme outcomes are non-existent with this team. It's just fake games for half the year.

If you just go likely wins or losses, so spreads of 7 or more when using my numbers, Florida is 8-2. Then you'd have 2 games left to determine whether they will go over the number, again the number is 9. The true toss-ups are at Kentucky, where I think they'll be a small favorite, and they play LSU in October. That's it. There's such little wiggle room here.

Even if you don't like Emory Jones replacing Trask, or if you think they lost more than they normally do on the roster, I wouldn't bet under on them.

Dan Mullen also has this crazy habit of going over on his win totals, no matter where he goes. Literally every single year. Went over in his first two seasons at Florida. Went over every single year at Mississippi State except for the year after Dak Prescott went to the NFL.

So, while I have some under indicators for this team, the coach is a dead over coach, the games have very little volatility to them, and the number is right about where I would make it. That honestly makes it a monster pass.

Even though people will make cases for this over or under because it is easy to find the stats to do so, I just think this number is a very well set number. I don't want to bet into it at all, and Dan Mullen scares me to death if I ever want to bet an under on him. I just don't see a lot of toss-up games that can create some crazy outcomes, so at 9, you pass the total.