PGA Tour Betting Picks, Predictions & Sleepers

Target these specific golf bets for the PGA Tour 2024 Mexico Open

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How to Bet The PGA Tour 2024 Mexico Open

The 2024 PGA Tour season chugs on at Vidanta Vallarta in Nuevo Vallarta, which will host the Mexico Open as golfers battle it out for their share of the $8.1M purse in this season's event. The winner will take home $1.458 million.

Below, you’ll see our model’s best bets and sleeper picks for this week’s PGA Tour event. Last week at the Genesis Invitational, the model nailed Patrick Cantlay's top-5 finish for +360, Xander Schauffele's top-10 finish for +150 odds, and Rickie Fowler's top-40 finish for -165. Let's see what it can do this week at the Mexico Open!

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How to Bet The PGA Tour 2024 Mexico Open

The 2024 PGA Tour season chugs on at Vidanta Vallarta in Nuevo Vallarta, which will host the Mexico Open as golfers battle it out for their share of the $8.1M purse in this season's event. The winner will take home $1.458 million.

Below, you’ll see our model’s best bets and sleeper picks for this week’s PGA Tour event. Last week at the Genesis Invitational, the model nailed Patrick Cantlay's top-5 finish for +360, Xander Schauffele's top-10 finish for +150 odds, and Rickie Fowler's top-40 finish for -165. Let's see what it can do this week at the Mexico Open!

PGA Tour Betting Picks, Predictions & Sleepers: 2024 Mexico Open

BetQL’s predictive PGA model takes into account overall player performance, recent form, course strengths and weaknesses per player, and sportsbook odds. It has been developed and tested throughout previous seasons and has compiled historical data from 25+ years of golfer and course history.

Last week at the Genesis Invitational, the model nailed Patrick Cantlay's top-5 finish for +360, Xander Schauffele's top-10 finish for +150 odds, and Rickie Fowler's top-40 finish for -165. Let's see what it can do this week at the Mexico Open!

Note: odds presented below come from BetQL’s PGA Model. Star ratings are on a 1-5 scale (1 being least valuable, 5 being most valuable).

After running our PGA Model, these particular finishing position bets are standing out with the most value on the board. 

Top Finishing Position Model Picks For 2024 Mexico Open

Tony Finau To Win (+800, DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐

BetQL’s PGA Model is giving Finau +549 odds to win this event, making his +800 odds at DraftKings a solid value. He's ranked 24th in the OWGR (Official World Golf Ranking), making him one of the better golfers on tour. So far, he's played in five events this season, with three top-25 finishes and one top-10 finish. In his last event at The Genesis Invitational, he finished tied for 19th with a score of six-under par. Finau actually won this event in 2023, so he will be looking to defend his title at the Mexico Open.

Keith Mitchell Top-5 Finish (+500, DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

The model is giving Mitchell +239 odds to finish inside the top five, which makes the +500 odds that DraftKings is hanging right now a serious value bet. He has played in five events this season, finishing in the top 25 twice, while also notching a top-10 finish. He's ranked 73rd in the world via OWGR, and the veteran American golfer has been trying to improve his standing each year. In his last event at the WM Phoenix Open, he tied for 17th with a score of 10-under. He's fourth in SG: Tee-to-Green and fourth in par from outside of 200 yards, a distance they’ll be facing a lot this week.

Ryan Fox Top-10 Finish (+360, DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

BetQL is giving Fox +145 odds to finish in the top 10, which makes his +360 odds at DraftKings a bargain. The New Zealand star has played in two events this season so far and has failed to crack the top 25 in either contest. He's ranked 41st in the OWGR, and he has been trying to climb the ranks as a veteran of the game. In his last event at the WM Phoenix Open, he finished tied for 41st with a score of 6-under. Most will overlook Fox this weekend, but he won the BMW Championship last season and should have a solid chance in a field as poor as this one.

Alex Smalley Top-20 Finish (+250, DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

The model is giving Smalley -101 odds to finish inside the top 20, which makes the +250 odds that DraftKings is hanging right now a good value bet. He has played in five events this season, finishing in the top 25 once. He's ranked 102nd in the world via OWGR, and the young American golfer has been trying to make a name for himself over the past couple of seasons. In his last event at the Genesis Invitational, he failed to make the cut with a score of 3-over. He failed to make the cut here last year as well, so he will be hoping for a better showing.

Ryan Palmer Top-40 Finish (+150, DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

The BetQL model is giving Palmer +103 odds to finish inside the top 40, which makes his +150 odds available at DraftKings a fantastic option. He's played in two events so far this season and has failed to record a top-25 finish. In his last event at the American Express, he failed to make the cut with a score of 10-under. He's ranked 208th on the OWGR right now, and the long-time veteran golfer is trying to rejuvenate his career. He hasn't participated in this event recently, so he will be looking for a good performance here.

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