NBA Player Prop Picks Today: Target Damian Lillard, Fade Nikola Jokic

Top NBA Player Prop Values Tonight

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Hawks vs. Blazers Player Prop Picks Tonight

Damian Lillard Over 10.5 1Q Points -120 at DraftKings

Lillard’s full-game point total is a ridiculous 36.5 which may seem insane, but with both Jusuf Nurkic and Anfernee Simons out, he’s been soaking up a ton of usage. In fact, in 481.7 minutes with both of them off the floor, he’s operated at a 40.9% usage rate, which is wild. He’s averaged 11.4 first quarter points over his last five games and has averaged 1.17 points per minute with those teammates sitting. If he plays the whole first quarter, that translates to 14 points, not considering the plus-matchup against Trae Young. I expect him to go off early in this contest and am much more comfortable targeting this than relying on him to rack up 37-plus points in the full game.

Bulls vs. Suns Player Prop Picks Tonight

Patrick Beverley Over 2.5 Assists -175 at DraftKings

Coming off a 10-assist performance, Beverley has gone over this 2.5-assist mark in three of his four games since signing with the Bulls. In that span, he has ranked second on the team in potential assists (6.0 per game) and has clearly made a mark as a facilitator. It looks like he’s going to continue starting and playing in the neighborhood of 30 minutes a night and I’ll include this in some parlays that I’m cooking up today. He only needs three to win and is surrounded by legitimate scorers like Zach LaVine, DeMar DeRozan and Nikola Vucevic.

Nuggets vs. Grizzlies Player Prop Picks Tonight

Nikola Jokic Under 46.5 PRA -110 at DraftKings

In Jokic’s first meeting against the Grizzlies on February 25, he only posted 15 points, 13 rebounds and three assists en route to a blowout loss. I don’t expect that to happen again in this spot, but I looked back and loved Memphis’ physical approach, starting the bulky Xavier Tillman Sr., who held his own against the back-to-back MVP. I’ll happily grab this and trust that the Grizz will find some success against him as Tillman, soon-to-be Defensive Player of the Year Jaren Jackson Jr. and Brandon Clarke will all contribute against him in various ways defensively.

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