NBA Best Bets For Friday, March 3

Today's NBA Best Bets

Plenty of NBA action today, which means another day of tough decisions for bettors. To help you make the best bets today, the BetQL editors have picked a few of their favorite NBA bets below using key trends, data and picks from the BetQL NBA model.

One trend to note is that the BetQL NBA Model is on fire since the All-Star break, going 166-112 (60%) on all picks in the last seven days for a quick $1,537 return on $100 bets! Take advantage of BetQL's free trial and see all of today's NBA best bets, plus what the model is projecting for this week's NHL, soccer and NCAA basketball games! Start your free trial today!

Kate Constable: Celtics team total o119.5

The game presents a matchup between one of the best offensive teams in the league going up against one of the worst defensive teams. The Celtics are averaging 119.2 points over their last 10 home games, which is exactly where their team total sits for tonight. Add in the fact that they’re facing a Nets team that’s giving up 134.0 points on the road since Kyrie Irving requested a trade, and Boston should be able to dominate on the offensive end tonight. Plus, the Celtics have gone over their team total in seven of their last 10 home games and in each of their last three, according to EV Analytics. Expect a big night in Beantown!

Lucy Burdge: Celtics -11 vs. Nets

This is a big spread and the Celtics haven’t covered in their last two games, but the Nets are having a rough go right now. They just got annihilated by the Knicks in that 142-118 loss. Plus, the Celtics have covered the spread in the last six meetings with Brooklyn (not to mention, Boston has won the last 10 matchups and only failed to cover in two of those). The Celtics are also 34-29 ATS this season and 18-14 ATS as the favorite. And you can get Celtics -11 (-108) at FanDuel, plus they are offering a trio of 30% NBA profit boosts today along with a great welcome bonus below!

Dan Karpuc: Knicks -2.5 at Heat

The Knicks are among the hottest teams in the NBA right now, having won and covered the spread seven consecutive times heading into this matchup in South Beach. Not only that, but New York has gone an impressive 18-12 SU (20-10 ATS) on the road this season. Under Tom Thibodeau, the Knicks have gone a wild 20-4 ATS after successfully covering the spread in four consecutive games, so that powerful trend is active. Meanwhile, Miami is a mess right now. The Heat have failed to cover the spread five straight times at home and have gone just 9-19-1 ATS in front of their fans. As a whole, Miami has consistently underwhelmed and underperformed this year, going 22-39-2 ATS regardless of setting. There’s no way I’m fading Julius Randle, Jalen Brunson and Co. tonight.

Matt Horner: Julius Randle u8.5 reb

Randle can score with the best of them, and he’s also pretty decent on the glass. However, he hasn’t reached this number in his four games after the All-Star break. He had eight rebounds in his last game, but had seven or fewer in the three games prior. I’ll take a shot he doesn’t grab nine boards again tonight for -104 at FanDuel, which could be another great use of one of your three 30% NBA profit boosts today.

Brad Pinkerton: Knicks-Heat +400 One-Game Parlay

BetMGM NBA OGP Insurance Play of the Day

If you're not playing BetMGM's NBA OGP Insurance promo yet, you're leaving money on the table. Opt in to the promo and place a four-leg (minimum) NBA one-game parlay with at least +400 odds; if your OGP loses by one leg, you'll get your stake back in a free bet up to $25 -- and you can take advantage of this promo once every day there's an NBA game!

The new +400 odds requirement makes this much harder, but we've hit a couple of these already using the strategy of "middling" the alt total and alt spreads for each team to increase our chances of getting the insurance if the OGP doesn't hit. Also, DO NOT play these OGPs without the promo, as the insurance is the only reason these bets are valuable over time.

Here is my play for today. You can adjust each leg to your liking and apply this strategy to any NBA game, any night.

Knicks-Heat o206.5
Knicks-Heat u223.5
Knicks +7.5
Heat +7.5
OGP odds: +400

Join BetMGM to start taking advantage of their daily OGP insurance promos across NBA, NHL and EPL/UCL. New BetMGM customers also get a risk-free first bet up to $1,000 using the offer below!

MORE NBA: TODAY’S BETTING GUIDE | TOP PLAYER PROPS | UPSET ALERTS!

Take advantage of BetQL's free trial and see all of today's best NBA bets, including player props, plus what the model is projecting for every NHL, soccer and NCAA basketball game this week! Start your free trial today!