Astros-Phillies World Series Game 3 Predictions & Player Props

Phillies-Astros World Series Game 3 Predictions & Player Props

November baseball has arrived, and it’s going to last at least three nights. After a rainout on Monday, the Phillies and Astros will try again to play Game 3 on Tuesday night. The delay has caused a shakeup in the pitching matchups, so let’s take another look at the best betting options for Tuesday’s Game 3 of the World Series.

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PICK: Astros ML -125

It must be noted that the Phillies are 5-0 at home in the postseason with four of those five wins coming by multiple runs, so there are good reasons to back the Phillies in Game 3. However, there isn’t enough value to go against the Astros, who are still the better team. Keep in mind the Astros are 43-21 (.672) this year as road favorites, so they’ve been good in this situation.

With the delay, the Phillies are reshuffling their rotation to start Ranger Suarez, who made a brief appearance in relief in Game 1. While he’s posted a 1.86 ERA in the playoffs, Suarez is not necessarily a good matchup against the Astros. When he faced Houston during the final weekend of the regular season, he lasted just three innings, giving up six runs on seven hits, including three home runs. Likewise, the Astros are the best team against left-handed starters, going 43-12 (.782) against southpaws.

The Astros, meanwhile, should expect at least five or six innings from Lance McCullers, setting up their rested bullpen for the late innings. McCullers allowed just one run on six hits over six innings when he faced the Phillies earlier this month in the regular season. McCullers also owns a 2.77 career ERA in the postseason, so he’s a better bet to position the Astros for a win than Suarez.

PICK: Under 8

The oddsmakers have made an adjustment to the run total with the way these two teams have scored during the postseason. That makes under eight runs a good play in Game 3. Dating back to the NLCS, four of Philadelphia’s last seven games have ended with fewer than eight total runs. Likewise, six of Houston’s last eight games have had less than eight total runs. The Phillies, in particular, have had trouble getting base hits during the postseason. Even if they find their power stroke at home, that doesn’t mean there will be base runners during those home runs. Meanwhile, the Astros may not be able to tee off on Philadelphia pitching with the bullpen rested after two off days in a row. That could help prevent either team from scratching out more than a few runs, keeping the run total under eight.

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PICKS: Lance McCullers Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-155, DraftKings)

McCullers has a small sample size this season, making just 10 starts in 2022, including the postseason. But he’s reached the six-strikeout plateau in seven of those 10 starts and five strikeouts in nine of those 10 starts. Even when he gave up eight hits over five innings against the Yankees during the ALCS, McCullers had the stuff to strike out six batters. Equally important, the Phillies are likely to be willing contributors to getting McCullers to six strikeouts. The Phillies have struck out 22 times over the first two games of the series, accounting for nearly half of their total outs. There are nine batters who have struck out at least twice in two games, making everyone in the Philadelphia lineup a potential strike-out victim for McCullers.

PICK: Lance McCullers Over 4.5 Hits Allowed (+115, DraftKings)

Even if McCullers collects several strikeouts in Game 3, he could still give up a handful of hits. In his ALCS start against the Yankees, he struck out six but allowed eight hits over five innings. Even when he allowed just one run over six innings against the Phillies in early October, McCullers gave up six hits. In fairness, he allowed four hits or less in half of his 10 starts in 2022, although those starts came against subpar teams like the Athletics, Angels and Orioles. The Phillies have enough lineup depth to collect at least five hits against McCullers, especially if he goes five or six innings deep.

PICKS: J.T. Realmuto and Jose Altuve to Each Get a Hit (+105, DraftKings)

Realmuto and Altuve are the safest bets on each team to get a hit in Game 3. Realmuto has emerged as Philadelphia’s best hitter during the World Series. He’s gone 3-for-8 with a double and a home run in two games and is now hitting .265 with an OPS of .814 in the playoffs thanks to three home runs. During the regular season, Realmuto hit .314 at home and .237 on the road, so he’s far more comfortable hitting at Citizens Bank Park.

Meanwhile, Altuve has finally come alive in the World Series after struggling in the first two rounds. He’s 4-for-9 with a double over the first two games of the series. As the leadoff hitter, he should get at least five plate appearances, giving him plenty of chances to get a hit. Altuve is also 2-for-2 with a double when he faced Ranger Suarez last month, so he should be able to stay hot and get at least one hit on Tuesday.

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