2023 MLB Futures: Best Bets For Detroit Tigers

Detroit Tigers Futures Bets

The 2023 MLB season begins on March 29 and BetQL is your one-stop shop for daily best bets, expert picks, public data, written analysis and more from the first pitch to the last. Before the season begins, I’m going through all 30 teams, detailing futures to target for every club and touching on some of the most intriguing storylines from around the league.

Three major rule changes will come into play this year, as a pitch timer, shift restrictions and bigger bases will be introduced. The pitch timer helped reduce game length by 25 minutes in the minors last year, shift restrictions increased batting average and decreased strikeouts and bigger bases not only improved player safety, but resulted in more steals and a better product. These changes can and most likely will have major on-field impacts, which makes predicting outcomes even more difficult in 2023.

Let’s take a look at the 2023 Tigers.

Detroit Tigers Roster

A.J. Hinch led the Tigers to a surprisingly strong 2021 campaign, but despite adding free agents Javier Baez, Eduardo Rodriguez, and Andrew Chafin, and trading for Austin Meadows and Tucker Barnhart, Detroit finished 11 games worse in 2022. It doesn't make much sense, but baseball is just one of those sports where you can expect the unexpected.

Detroit's offense was a complete disaster last season. They finished dead last in runs, home runs, walks, and slugging percentage. They were second-to-last in on-base percentage and OPS, and bottom five in hits, stolen bases, and many other advanced metrics proved that this was the worst offense in the sport.

They didn't make any real big additions this offseason to change that, either. They still will be deploying Baez and Meadows in the middle of the lineup, and they hope those guys can bounce back to playing at their potential. Riley Greene is an exciting player that could breakout this season. His rookie season was derailed when he fouled a ball off his foot, and as a result, he played just 93 games with the Major League club. Eric Haase looks to be the starting catcher and was one of the few Tigers who finished with above-average offensive numbers last season. Miguel Cabrera, one of the greatest to ever play the game, will most likely play his last season in 2023. He joined the exclusive 3,000 hit club but only totaled 101 hits and five home runs across 397 at-bats. Time has stripped him of his power and general production at the plate.

The Tigers added Matt Vierling and called up Kerry Carpenter and one of them will play left field, but we don't know which. My guess would be Carpenter, but it will most likely be a platoon based on the opposing lineup. Jonathan Schoop remains at second base, and it was an unusually terrible season for him last year. One season after a 22-homer, 30-double campaign in which he posted his third-straight OPS over .750, Schoop completely fell apart. He'll look to get back on track in 2023. Spencer Torkelson is one of the Tigers' top prospects, but it was obvious how much he struggled against MLB pitching last season, hitting just .203/.285/.319. Third base will be manned by either Nick Maton or Tyler Nevin with Jeimer Candelario gone, which will likely mean a dip in production.

In terms of pitching, a few starters will open the season on the IL. Casey Mize, the team’s No. 1 draft pick in 2018, and Tarik Skubal, their most successful starter, are both rehabbing from major surgeries. Mize will miss the entire 2023 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery, while Skubal could miss a significant part of the year as well. E-Rod will likely be their top option, which is not a good situation. He made just 17 starts and wasn’t effective after signing a massive $77 million deal. Spencer Turnbull has been effective when he has been on the mound, but the problem is he never seems to play. He missed all of last season after Tommy John surgery. Matt Manning will likely have a spot in the rotation again after missing time in 2022. He showed some promise in his limited time on the mound after a poor rookie season in 2021. Matthew Boyd has been the organization’s most consistent pitcher throughout the rebuild, and is back with the team. Finally, Michael Lorenzen will fill out the rotation after a season full of injuries and inconsistency.

The bullpen will feature names such as Joey Wentz, Beau Brieske, Alex Faedo, and Garrett Hill. None of them are proven arms and many of them are prospects that, like most Tigers prospects, excelled in the minors but fail in the Majors.

Detroit Tigers Best Bets

Under 70.5 regular season wins (-110, DraftKings) is probably the best bet here. This team didn't make any significant moves this offseason, and they are basically just hoping that some of their players have bounce-back seasons. That is wishful thinking for a team that had just 110 HR last season, which was least in MLB by 17, and one of only eight teams under 150. They had just 380 walks drawn, which was the least in MLB, along with a league-worst 33.6% chase rate.

There was simply nothing to like here, and with no real additions, there isn't much reason to believe they will simply explode into a contender with the same players.