Top NFL Future Bets: Sportsbooks’ Most Mispriced Teams Right Now

Sharp bettors thrive on identifying inefficiencies. With 3 weeks before the NFL season, the sportsbooks have varying opinions on teams that bettors can exploit for serious profits in the betting market. 

Heading into the 2025 NFL season, three teams stand out as being priced well above or below what the market suggests. I examined different sportsbooks to find best values, with a rationale behind these choices. Here’s where the value lies so far: 

Houston Texans

This is a play on being in one of the weaker divisions in the sport. Houston presents a ton of upside if C.J. Stroud returns to form and if they can protect similarly after trading away Laremy Tunsil. The Texans were one of the NFL’s most balanced teams last season, and the front office doubled down this offseason, adding Nick Chubb to the backfield. Then the defense added veteran safety Jalen Mills to shore up a secondary that struggled in spots.

DraftKings is offering alt win totals - Over 9.5 wins (+100), Over 10.5 (+180), Over 11.5 (+360), and a juicy +2200 for the AFC’s #1 seed (BetMGM sits at +1200). The AFC South remains one of the softer divisions in football, and Houston’s combination of offensive depth and defensive upgrades positions them to feast on weaker opponents. If you believe Stroud can make the leap into MVP conversation territory, those higher alt totals offer big payout potential.

Key Lines:

• DraftKings: Over 9.5 (+100), Over 10.5 (+180), Over 11.5 (+360), AFC #1 seed +2200
• BetMGM: AFC #1 seed +1200

Betting Angle:

Alt win totals beyond 9.5 offer excellent ROI for believers in a Texans breakout. If you see Stroud pushing for MVP, the #1 seed odds at +2200 is worth a small position.

Pittsburgh Steelers 

The Steelers made offseason headlines by adding Aaron Rodgers, Jalen Ramsey, DK Metcalf, and Darius Slay. On paper, it looks like a superteam. But behind the star power lies an offensive line still struggling to keep quarterbacks upright, a roster with nine new starters, and a key veteran, Cam Heyward, embroiled in a contract dispute.

BetMGM’s line of –140 for Pittsburgh to miss the playoffs is a value compared to BetRivers’ –186. The market is still pricing in Rodgers' brand name, but with his health history and limited time to gel with a new supporting cast, there’s significant bust potential. In a stacked AFC North, one bad month could sink their playoff hopes.

Key Lines:

• Best Odds - BetMGM: Miss Playoffs –140
• Worst Odds - BetRivers: Miss Playoffs –186 

Betting Angle:

Fade the public hype. Take “miss playoffs” at –140 on BetMGM via BetQL to lock in the softest number before the market corrects.

Las Vegas Raiders 

Las Vegas is living in the shadow of the Chiefs, and upstart Broncos and Chargers, which makes sense, until you dig into the changes. Pete Carroll’s arrival brings a culture shift, with an offense featuring Geno Smith, Ashton Jeanty, Brock Bowers, that should be augmented by solid offensive line play. The defense, anchored by Maxx Crosby, now has help in the trenches with Thomas Booker IV, and the team invested heavily in upgrading a secondary that graded dead last in coverage last year.

The sportsbooks are split: DraftKings hangs over 7.5 wins at +140, while Caesars makes the Under a favorite at –130. The market hasn’t priced in all of the offseason changes plus a 4th place schedule, as a result the Raiders could surprise. Over 7.5 wins offers plus-money upside in a division that may be softer than the market believes.

Key Lines:

• DraftKings: Over 7.5 wins (+140)
• Caesars: Under 7.5 wins (–130)

Highest Upside: 

Also at many books, you can parlay an alternate of 6.5 wins with another value where that number looks much easier. The +2000 AFC West odds at DraftKings via BetQL for pure value.