NFL Picks: Thursday Night Football

NFL Picks: Thursday Night Football

Another week of NFL games is here, and that means it's time to cash some NFL bets! This week's Thursday Night Football clash features the Lions at the Packers in what should be an entertaining NFC North showdown, and we've got the inside scoop on where to place your bets.

Our expert team at BetQL has dissected the stats, analyzed player form and scrutinized past performances, all thanks to BetQL, to bring you the most informed NFL picks for this prime-time battle.

Our NFL picks are the result of a thorough process that combines data-driven analysis with a deep understanding of the game. Whether you're a seasoned bettor or just starting out, our NFL picks are tailored to give you the upper hand.

So, join us as we break down the key players, strategies and potential game-changers in this electrifying contest. Below, you’ll see a betting breakdown with expert NFL picks from the BetQL Editorial Team, including sleeper picks and epic sportsbook promotions to cash in on!

As always, BetQL is your one-stop destination for live NFL betting odds, best bets from our NFL model, sharp picks, public bets, line movement data, exclusive articles and much more to help you cash more bets. BetQL subscribers can see all of this week's best bets with game projections, player props, betting trends and more!

The BetQL NFL model has gone 107-63 (63%) on all picks the last two weeks for a total return of $1,950 on $100 bets! Sign up for a FREE TRIAL today!

MORE: TNF PLAYER PROPS

TNF: Lions at Packers Picks & Best Bets

Dan Karpuc: Packers ML (+105, BetMGM)

Under Matt LaFleur, the Packers have gone 26-8 SU (+18.05 units, 53.1% ROI) coming off an under and 15-4 SU (+9.7 units, 51.1% ROI) in the first month of the season. While most of that was accomplished with Aaron Rodgers at the helm of the offense, Jordan Love has been very impressive, accumulating eight total touchdowns (seven passing) and just one giveaway (an interception) through three games. The Packers enter this game at 2-1 just like the Lions, but Green Bay could be 3-0 right now, having beaten the Bears 38-20 on the road, losing 25-24 to the Falcons on the road and then coming back to win their home opener against the Saints 18-17 in Week 3. It’s clear that this team will rally behind Love and a Thursday Night matchup at Lambeau Field is a very tough setting for the Lions to go into and win. Get the best price for this at BetMGM.

Matt Horner: Packers ML (+105, BetMGM)

I think we are getting good value here with Green Bay. Detroit is going to most likely be without both starting safeties, as well as their left tackle and right guard. RB David Montgomery and WR Amon-Ra St. Brown are both hurt, but will probably play. With so many injuries, the short week is not going to do them any favors. Plus, the Packers have won 27 of the last 30 games against the Lions in Green Bay. After Detroit beat them here last year to knock them out of the playoffs, they will want some revenge at Lambeau.

Lucy Burdge: Jared Goff to have most passing yards (-145, BetMGM)

Through the first three weeks, Goff has 253, 323 and 243 passing yards, while Jordan Love has 259, 151 and 245 passing yards. Goff has kept pretty decent pace with, if not exceeded, Love’s passing yards through these first three games, so I love him to finish with more passing yards than Love in this game.

New BetMGM customers can get up to $1,500 back in bonus bets if their first bet loses using the welcome offer below!

Kate Constable: Lions ML (-122, DraftKings)

The Lions defense has looked pretty legit through the first few weeks of the season, especially the run defense that’s held each of its opponents to under 100 yards on the ground. I know that the Packers aren’t relying heavily on the run game right now with Aaron Jones out, but taking away that aspect makes Green Bay extremely one dimensional.

Both teams have already played the Falcons this year and the Packers struggled to move the ball while the Lions did pretty much whatever they wanted. Green Bay only generated 224 total yards, while Jared Goff alone threw for 243 yards. I recognize that the Lions were at home while the Packers were on the road, so the comparison isn’t exactly apples to apples. Regardless, I think Detroit is a step ahead of Green Bay on both sides of the ball.

Also, had Derek Carr not left Week 3 with an injury, I’m not sure the Packers would have been able to pull off that comeback win. And if that’s the case, we’re probably looking at a larger spread in favor of Detroit. Because this is a divisional, primetime matchup and the line is extremely close, I’ll pay the extra juice and take the Lions on the moneyline. 

Tail this pick at DraftKings and get $200 in bonus bets PLUS up to $150 in no-sweat bets with the welcome offer below!

Brad Pinkerton: 1Q o7.5 points (-104, FanDuel)

I think this is going to be a tight game, so rather than join the Staff Writer Royal Rumble above and pick a side, I'm going with a bet we all want to see -- early scoring. FanDuel has o7.5 in the first quarter at a very reasonable -104 price considering that the over is favored around -115 most places. Plus, FanDuel has a nice 50% profit boost that you can use on any bet in this game, which would make this even better at +145!

Tail this pick at FanDuel and get $200 in bonus bets using the welcome offer below!

Best Sportsbook Promotions

Check out our plays for today's best sportsbook promotions, including odds boosts and more!

CAESARS: 50% TNF SGP Profit Boost!

Caesars is offering a 50% SGP profit boost for TNF! Opt in and get one 50% profit boost token to use on a TNF same-game parlay (minimum +400 odds). Even better, new Caesars customers can bet $50 and get $250 in bonus bets using the offer below!

FANDUEL: TNF No Sweat SGP & TNF 50% Profit Boost

FanDuel is offering more great promos heading into TNF! First is a No Sweat Same-Game Parlay (get your stake back if it loses), along with another 50% profit boost on any TNF wager. Even better, new customers can also bet $5 and get $200 in bonus bets instantly using the welcome offer below!

DRAFTKINGS: No Sweat Bets & TNF Up 7 Early Win!

DraftKings is offering another set of No Sweat Bet tokens, one each for TNF, Sunday and MNF, plus "Early Win" tokens for each game day, including an "Up 7, Early Win" token for TNF! Even better, new DraftKings customers can get $200 in bonus bets PLUS up to $150 in no-sweat bets with the welcome offer below!

BETRIVERS: BETRIVERS: Primetime First TD Scorer Bet & Get!

BetRivers is offering all customers a bet-and-get for all NFL primetime games this season! Place a cash wager of at least $10 on any player to score the first touchdown on Thursday, Sunday or Monday Night Football (you can play this promo once for each primetime game) and get a 25% profit boost! Even better, new customers can get up to $500 back in bonus bets if their first wager loses by using the welcome offer below!

MORE: TNF PLAYER PROPS

2023 Thursday Night Football Schedule

The 2023 NFL schedule is out which means that we have the complete Thursday Night Football schedule. Technically, the Amazon Prime broadcast begins in Week 2 since the Week 1 season-opener between the Chiefs and Lions will air on NBC. Also keep in mind that the Week 12 matchup between the Jets and Dolphins will be the first-ever NFL game to be played on Black Friday, but is technically a Thursday Night Football broadcast. 

Like last year, the Amazon Prime broadcast will feature Al Michaels and Kirk Herbstreit in the booth with Kaylee Hartung as the sideline reporter. Let’s take a look at the full exciting schedule below:

Best Thursday Night Football Matchups In 2023

Week 1 kicks off with an exciting matchup as the Lions face the reigning Super Bowl champions, the Chiefs, in a game that will be broadcasted on NBC. The spotlight will be on Patrick Mahomes as he leads the high-powered Chiefs offense against the Lions' strong offensive unit.

In Week 2, the Vikings hit the road to take on the Eagles. Justin Jefferson and Kirk Cousins will look to make an impact against Jalen Hurts and the NFC Champions, the Eagles. It will be a test for both teams as they aim to establish themselves as contenders in their respective divisions.

Week 3 features the Giants traveling to face the 49ers. The Giants, led by their new head coach Brian Daboll, will face a tough challenge against the 49ers, who made it to the NFC title game last season. It will be a significant test for the Giants' revamped squad as they go up against Christian McCaffrey and a strong San Francisco team.

Week 6 features a Thursday night game between the Broncos and the Chiefs. The reigning Super Bowl champions will be playing their second Thursday night game of the season, this time against the Broncos led by head coach Sean Payton and quarterback Russell Wilson. It will be an intriguing matchup between two talented teams.

Week 11 brings an AFC North divisional matchup as the Bengals take on the Ravens. Joe Burrow and Lamar Jackson will lead their respective teams in what promises to be an exciting game filled with divisional rivalries.

Week 12 features the Dolphins and the Jets facing off in the first-ever Black Friday game in NFL history. It will be a special occasion as football fans can enjoy a holiday matchup between these AFC East rivals.

Week 13 sees a matchup between Geno Smith and the Seahawks and Dak Prescott and the Cowboys in Dallas. Both of these offenses should be able to put up some numbers!

Week 14 presents a showdown between two former rivals, the Patriots and the Steelers. This game will rekindle the historic rivalry and provide a thrilling matchup between these storied franchises.

Week 15 features an exciting matchup as the Chargers, led by their talented quarterback Justin Herbert, hit the road to take on the Raiders. They will face off against Jimmy G and the Raiders in a divisional clash. This game will have significant implications for both teams as they jockey for position in the highly competitive AFC West.

In Week 17, the Jets and the Browns square off in a game that pits Aaron Rodgers against Deshaun Watson. Both quarterbacks will lead their respective teams in a matchup with potential playoff implications. This game will be crucial as both teams fight for a spot in the postseason and look to end the regular season on a high note.

How To Bet Thursday Night Football

Research the teams: Before placing any Thursday Night Football bets, it's important to gather information about the teams playing. Consider their recent performance, key players, injuries, head-to-head records, and any other relevant factors that may impact the game.

Understand the odds: Familiarize yourself with how NFL betting odds work. Odds indicate the probability of a specific outcome, and they also determine the potential payout. Learn about different types of bets, such as point spreads, moneylines, and over/unders, and consider which type of bet aligns with your betting strategy.

Set a budget: It's crucial to establish a budget for your Thursday Night Football betting activities and stick to it. Only wager what you can afford to lose, and avoid chasing losses by increasing your bets. Responsible bankroll management is key to maintaining a sustainable and enjoyable betting experience.

Shop for the best odds: Different sportsbooks may offer slightly different Thursday Night Football odds for the same game. Take the time to compare odds from multiple bookmakers to ensure you're getting the best value for your bets. Even small differences in odds can significantly impact your overall profitability in the long run.

Consider additional factors: While statistics and trends are important, also consider other factors that may influence the outcome of a Thursday Night Football game. These factors could include weather conditions, home-field advantage, coaching strategies, and team motivation.

Practice self-control: Emotions can often cloud judgment, leading to impulsive or irrational betting decisions. Try to approach sports betting with a calm and logical mindset. Avoid betting on your favorite Thursday Night Football team solely based on loyalty, as it can bias your judgment.

Remember, Thursday Night Football betting involves an element of risk, and there are no guaranteed outcomes. It's essential to gamble responsibly, be mindful of your betting habits, and enjoy the game within your means.

Be sure to consult BetQL’s NFL Model before placing any Thursday Night Football bets. Also see live public betting, sharp betting and line movement data, player prop projections, trending bets and more!

Thursday Night Football Betting Strategy

When it comes to betting on Thursday night NFL games, here are some strategies you can consider:

Research the teams: Analyze the teams' recent performance, including their records, statistics, and key player injuries. Look at their offensive and defensive capabilities, as well as their past performance in prime-time games.

Consider short weeks: Thursday night games usually occur after a shorter week of preparation, which can impact team performance. Take into account how teams have historically fared in these situations, as some may struggle to perform at their usual level due to less rest and recovery time.

Home-field advantage: Assess the impact of home-field advantage on the teams playing. Some teams tend to perform better at home, so consider this factor when making your predictions.

Weather conditions: Keep an eye on the weather forecast for the game. Extreme weather conditions, such as heavy rain or strong winds, can significantly affect the outcome and scoring potential. Adjust your betting strategy accordingly.

Line movements and public betting: Pay attention to line movements and public betting trends. These can provide valuable insights into how the majority of bettors are leaning and whether there might be value in taking the contrarian approach.

Prop bets and alternative markets: Look beyond the traditional spread and over/under bets. Prop bets, player performance bets, and alternative markets can offer interesting opportunities, especially if you have in-depth knowledge about specific players or matchups.

Manage your bankroll: Set a budget for your wagers and avoid chasing losses. It's important to bet responsibly and not wager more than you can afford to lose. Develop a staking plan and stick to it, adjusting your bet sizes based on your confidence in each pick.

Remember, betting on sports is inherently risky, and there are no guaranteed strategies for success. These tips are meant to provide a framework for making informed decisions, but ultimately, outcomes can be unpredictable. Exercise caution and always gamble responsibly.