NFL Picks: Thursday Night Football

NFL Picks: Thursday Night Football

Another week of NFL games is here, and that means it's time to cash some NFL bets! This week's Thursday Night Football clash features the Giants at the 49ers in what should be an entertaining NFC showdown, and we've got the inside scoop on where to place your bets.

Our expert team at BetQL has dissected the stats, analyzed player form and scrutinized past performances, all thanks to BetQL, to bring you the most informed NFL picks for this prime-time battle.

Our NFL picks are the result of a thorough process that combines data-driven analysis with a deep understanding of the game. Whether you're a seasoned bettor or just starting out, our NFL picks are tailored to give you the upper hand.

So, join us as we break down the key players, strategies and potential game-changers in this electrifying contest. Below, you’ll see a betting breakdown with expert NFL picks from the BetQL Editorial Team, including sleeper picks and epic sportsbook promotions to cash in on!

As always, BetQL is your one-stop destination for live NFL betting odds, best bets from our NFL model, sharp picks, public bets, line movement data, exclusive articles and much more to help you cash more bets. BetQL subscribers can see all of this week's best bets with game projections, player props, betting trends and more! Sign up for a FREE TRIAL today!

MORE: TNF PLAYER PROPS

TNF: Giants at 49ers Picks & Best Bets

Kate Constable: 49ers -10 (-110, BetMGM)

Considering how the 49ers have looked through the first two games of the season, a blowout win for San Francisco is likely in the cards. Sure, the Niners' defense wasn’t great in the first half against the Rams, but it stepped up in the second half, not allowing L.A. to find the end zone. With how weak the Giants offensive line has been, QB Daniel Jones better get ready to see significant pressure from San Fran's front seven on Thursday.

Offensively, San Fran has too many weapons for the Giants to try and slow down. The Niners lead the league with 5.6 rushing yards per attempt and rank fifth with 7.9 passing yards per attempt. Christian McCaffrey has been a nightmare for opposing defenses, finishing with 20 carries for 116 yards in Week 2. The 49ers passing offense has been solid so far but has the ability to explode if Brock Purdy can get more accurate on some of his deep balls. However, Purdy has been great at taking care of the football with 153 passes since last being intercepted.

As long as the Niners take care of the football and don't shoot themselves in the foot with costly penalties, I like them to win and cover as heavy favorites at home.

New BetMGM customers can get up to $1,500 back in bonus bets if their first bet loses using the welcome offer below!

Dan Karpuc: 49ers 1H -6.5 (-125, DraftKings)

Through two games against the Cowboys and Cardinals, the Giants trailed 26-0 and then 20-0 at halftime. Ouch. While New York’s comeback win at Arizona was exceptional, this team has come out very flat in consecutive weeks and now will be without Saquon Barkley due to an ankle injury. This San Francisco offense scored 20 and then 17 first half points in their first couple games (against the Steelers and Rams) and Christian McCaffrey and Co. should thrive in this matchup. On a short week, without their best player and traveling across the country, this is going to be an uphill battle for the G-Men. Give me the Niners to cover -5.5 in the first half.

Tail this pick at DraftKings and get $200 in bonus bets PLUS up to $150 in no-sweat bets with the welcome offer below!

Brad Pinkerton: Giants RB Matt Breida ATTD (+275, BetMGM)

It's extremely unlikely Saquon Barkley plays Thursday night, and even if he does, I wouldn't expect him to carry a full workload. Enter Matt Breida, who has filled in admirably for Barkley in the past. I'd grab this TD price now at BetMGM -- market average is around +215, so this is a great value -- because it will tank quickly if/when Barkley is ruled out. Yes, the 49ers present a tough matchup on paper, but we just saw the Rams' Kyren Williams score twice against them last week. Grab the value on Breida while you can.

New BetMGM customers can get a free one-year BetQL subscription using the offer below!

Best Sportsbook Promotions & Plays

Check out our plays for today's best sportsbook promotions, including odds boosts and more!

FANDUEL: TNF No Sweat SGP & TNF 50% Profit Boost

FanDuel is also offering more great promos heading into TNF Week 3. First is a No Sweat Same-Game Parlay (get your stake back if it loses), along with another 50% profit boost on any TNF wager. Even better, new customers can also bet $5 and get $200 in bonus bets instantly using the welcome offer below!

DRAFTKINGS: Week 3 No Sweat Bets!

DraftKings is offering another set of No Sweat Bet tokens, one each for TNF, Sunday and MNF! Even better, new DraftKings customers can get $200 in bonus bets PLUS up to $150 in no-sweat bets with the welcome offer below!

BETRIVERS: Primetime First TD Scorer Insurance!

BetRivers is expanding their popular First TD Insurance to all primetime games this season! Place a cash wager on any player to score the first touchdown on Thursday, Sunday or Monday Night Football (you can play this promo once for each primetime game) and get your stake back up to $25 if the player does not score first but scores later in the game. 

Even better, new customers can get up to $500 back in bonus bets if their first wager loses by using the welcome offer below!

MORE: TNF PLAYER PROPS

2023 Thursday Night Football Schedule

The 2023 NFL schedule is out which means that we have the complete Thursday Night Football schedule. Technically, the Amazon Prime broadcast begins in Week 2 since the Week 1 season-opener between the Chiefs and Lions will air on NBC. Also keep in mind that the Week 12 matchup between the Jets and Dolphins will be the first-ever NFL game to be played on Black Friday, but is technically a Thursday Night Football broadcast. 

Like last year, the Amazon Prime broadcast will feature Al Michaels and Kirk Herbstreit in the booth with Kaylee Hartung as the sideline reporter. Let’s take a look at the full exciting schedule below:

Best Thursday Night Football Matchups In 2023

Week 1 kicks off with an exciting matchup as the Lions face the reigning Super Bowl champions, the Chiefs, in a game that will be broadcasted on NBC. The spotlight will be on Patrick Mahomes as he leads the high-powered Chiefs offense against the Lions' strong offensive unit.

In Week 2, the Vikings hit the road to take on the Eagles. Justin Jefferson and Kirk Cousins will look to make an impact against Jalen Hurts and the NFC Champions, the Eagles. It will be a test for both teams as they aim to establish themselves as contenders in their respective divisions.

Week 3 features the Giants traveling to face the 49ers. The Giants, led by their new head coach Brian Daboll, will face a tough challenge against the 49ers, who made it to the NFC title game last season. It will be a significant test for the Giants' revamped squad as they go up against Christian McCaffrey and a strong San Francisco team.

Week 6 features a Thursday night game between the Broncos and the Chiefs. The reigning Super Bowl champions will be playing their second Thursday night game of the season, this time against the Broncos led by head coach Sean Payton and quarterback Russell Wilson. It will be an intriguing matchup between two talented teams.

Week 11 brings an AFC North divisional matchup as the Bengals take on the Ravens. Joe Burrow and Lamar Jackson will lead their respective teams in what promises to be an exciting game filled with divisional rivalries.

Week 12 features the Dolphins and the Jets facing off in the first-ever Black Friday game in NFL history. It will be a special occasion as football fans can enjoy a holiday matchup between these AFC East rivals.

Week 13 sees a matchup between Geno Smith and the Seahawks and Dak Prescott and the Cowboys in Dallas. Both of these offenses should be able to put up some numbers!

Week 14 presents a showdown between two former rivals, the Patriots and the Steelers. This game will rekindle the historic rivalry and provide a thrilling matchup between these storied franchises.

Week 15 features an exciting matchup as the Chargers, led by their talented quarterback Justin Herbert, hit the road to take on the Raiders. They will face off against Jimmy G and the Raiders in a divisional clash. This game will have significant implications for both teams as they jockey for position in the highly competitive AFC West.

In Week 17, the Jets and the Browns square off in a game that pits Aaron Rodgers against Deshaun Watson. Both quarterbacks will lead their respective teams in a matchup with potential playoff implications. This game will be crucial as both teams fight for a spot in the postseason and look to end the regular season on a high note.

How To Bet Thursday Night Football

Research the teams: Before placing any Thursday Night Football bets, it's important to gather information about the teams playing. Consider their recent performance, key players, injuries, head-to-head records, and any other relevant factors that may impact the game.

Understand the odds: Familiarize yourself with how NFL betting odds work. Odds indicate the probability of a specific outcome, and they also determine the potential payout. Learn about different types of bets, such as point spreads, moneylines, and over/unders, and consider which type of bet aligns with your betting strategy.

Set a budget: It's crucial to establish a budget for your Thursday Night Football betting activities and stick to it. Only wager what you can afford to lose, and avoid chasing losses by increasing your bets. Responsible bankroll management is key to maintaining a sustainable and enjoyable betting experience.

Shop for the best odds: Different sportsbooks may offer slightly different Thursday Night Football odds for the same game. Take the time to compare odds from multiple bookmakers to ensure you're getting the best value for your bets. Even small differences in odds can significantly impact your overall profitability in the long run.

Consider additional factors: While statistics and trends are important, also consider other factors that may influence the outcome of a Thursday Night Football game. These factors could include weather conditions, home-field advantage, coaching strategies, and team motivation.

Practice self-control: Emotions can often cloud judgment, leading to impulsive or irrational betting decisions. Try to approach sports betting with a calm and logical mindset. Avoid betting on your favorite Thursday Night Football team solely based on loyalty, as it can bias your judgment.

Remember, Thursday Night Football betting involves an element of risk, and there are no guaranteed outcomes. It's essential to gamble responsibly, be mindful of your betting habits, and enjoy the game within your means.

Be sure to consult BetQL’s NFL Model before placing any Thursday Night Football bets. Also see live public betting, sharp betting and line movement data, player prop projections, trending bets and more!

Thursday Night Football Betting Strategy

When it comes to betting on Thursday night NFL games, here are some strategies you can consider:

Research the teams: Analyze the teams' recent performance, including their records, statistics, and key player injuries. Look at their offensive and defensive capabilities, as well as their past performance in prime-time games.

Consider short weeks: Thursday night games usually occur after a shorter week of preparation, which can impact team performance. Take into account how teams have historically fared in these situations, as some may struggle to perform at their usual level due to less rest and recovery time.

Home-field advantage: Assess the impact of home-field advantage on the teams playing. Some teams tend to perform better at home, so consider this factor when making your predictions.

Weather conditions: Keep an eye on the weather forecast for the game. Extreme weather conditions, such as heavy rain or strong winds, can significantly affect the outcome and scoring potential. Adjust your betting strategy accordingly.

Line movements and public betting: Pay attention to line movements and public betting trends. These can provide valuable insights into how the majority of bettors are leaning and whether there might be value in taking the contrarian approach.

Prop bets and alternative markets: Look beyond the traditional spread and over/under bets. Prop bets, player performance bets, and alternative markets can offer interesting opportunities, especially if you have in-depth knowledge about specific players or matchups.

Manage your bankroll: Set a budget for your wagers and avoid chasing losses. It's important to bet responsibly and not wager more than you can afford to lose. Develop a staking plan and stick to it, adjusting your bet sizes based on your confidence in each pick.

Remember, betting on sports is inherently risky, and there are no guaranteed strategies for success. These tips are meant to provide a framework for making informed decisions, but ultimately, outcomes can be unpredictable. Exercise caution and always gamble responsibly.