2026 AFC Divisional Round Predictions and Preview

The AFC Wild Card Weekend has come and gone with Buffalo, New England and Houston punching their tickets to this weekend's Divisional Round. The Patriots and Texans showed out on defense and will now face each other in Foxborough, while Buffalo was able to hold off the Jags in an instant classic and will now travel to Denver to take on the Broncos. Check out our NFL experts' break down of each game and find out their best bets for this weekend.

Drake Maye and the Patriots' defence was just too much for the Chargers in their Wild Card contest as New England held L.A. to just 3 points, winning 16-3. Houston, not to be outdone, went on the road and took down the Steelers 30-6 in what is likely to be Aaron Rodgers' last game as a starter. Houston is known for their defensive prowess, they're 2nd this season in points allowed per game having allowed 20 or fewer points in 13 of their games this season. They also lead the NFL in fewest total yards allowed this season. Texans QB C.J. Stroud has put up respectable numbers and with WR Nico Collins being a top 10 receiver this season. Houston is 5-3 on the road this season and opened as 3 point underdogs for this weekend's game. As for the Patriots, they're a top 5 team in points scored per game, fewest points allowed per game, passing yards per game and were 6th in rushing yards per game. QB Drake Maye made a real case for MVP this season, and the Patriots look as dominant as they did with Tom Brady and Bill Belichick leading the team. The current moneyline for the Patriots is -162 according to DraftKings.

We're predicting the Texans will win with a projected final score of 21-18.5. If you're not confident enough to take Houston's moneyline, consider taking the Texans +3, which is currently at -102 on DraftKings Sportsbook.

Josh Allen and the Bills were able to survive a wild fourth quarter versus the Jaguars to pull out a 27-24 win on the road. Expectations are high for the reigning MVP and his team, especially with the Chiefs missing the playoffs this season. Could this finally be the year they get over the hump and win their first Super Bowl. Weather shouldn't be an issue for the Bills as they're used to playing in the cold, wind and snow. Buffalo, despite having an MVP caliber QB, leads the NFL in rushing yards per game behind Jame Cook III, and are tied for 4th this season on points scored per game. They'll need all they can get as Denver is one of the best teams in the league at stopping the run. Speaking of the Broncos, they won the #1 seed by going 14-3 this season, 8-1 at home, while only allowing 18.3 points per game. Second year QB Bo Nix will be playing in just his second playoff game, and he'll hope for a better result than last year against the Bills. Denver has a balanced offence and will hope their home field advantage is enough to push them over the finish line and make their first AFC Championship game since they won it all in 2015. Denver opened as 1.5 point favorites, but are 1.5 point underdogs on some online sportsbooks.

We're predicting the Bills are going to defy the odds and win this weekend with a projected final score of 24-21.5. The Buffalo moneyline is currently -108 on FanDuel Sportsbook, which is the best line we've seen.