UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Dillashaw Preview and Best Bets
Read our Preview and Best Bets for the UFC Fight Night card!
The UFC is back with a massive Fight Night Card on Saturday night, headlined by the return of former bantamweight champion T.J. Dillashaw.
Dillashaw returns after a two year suspension to face the No. 2 ranked Cory Sandhagen. That’s the main event with 10 other bouts comprising the card.
After a sweep last week for +6.98 units, including a first round knockout winner, let’s keep it up with the bets for this week's card:
When: July 24
Where: UFC Apex, Las Vegas, Nevada
Watch: ESPN+
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook on Friday afternoon
Main Event: Cory Sandhagen (-196) vs. T.J. Dillashaw (+164)
Dillashaw was on the shelf for two years after testing positive for EPO, and is getting thrown into the fire right away with a matchup against his former training partner Sandhagen.
Sandhagen has two impressive knockouts in a row against Marlon Moraes and Frankie Edgar. His only loss in the UFC is to champion Aljamain Sterling in the prior fight, but is on a roll and sitting as a big favorite against the former champ.
This price is being driven due to the questions around Dillashaw. Not only have we not seen him in so long, but was he a legitimate champion, or was it the steroids talking?
I will take a stab on Dillashaw at this price, because if he shows up and looks close to his prime form, he has advantages in the grappling department and has shown that he has the cardio to go deeper into fights.
Sandhagen can pack a powerful punch and is a unique size for bantamweight, standing at 5’11”, but I see Dillashaw as valuable at this number. He can drag this fight into the championship rounds if he so chooses with his ability to close the distance and his striking defense.
Then again, the two year lay off may be the difference here, I’ll only lay half a unit on Dillashaw.
Pick: Dillashaw +164 .5 unit
Underdog Bet: Darren Elkins (+134) vs. Darrick Minner (-158)
Minner has a very clear game plan, and I’m banking on the veteran Elkins being able to foil it.
Minner has an average fight time in the UFC at just over six minutes, and 22 of his 26 wins come by way of submission.
So, it’s clear that he's going to look to shoot for a takedown and finish this early.
While Elkins has suspect takedown defense, just 58% according to UFCStats.com, he is a very active fighter who is going to push the pace on Minner and has a very strong grappling game himself, averaging more than two takedowns per 15 minutes. If 'Damage' can stuff submission attempts, he'll have Minner beat. He's also live to win by submission himself with five of his wins coming that way.
Elkins is the more complete fighter despite his advanced age and I see him as the favorite. If he can survive the first round, I’ll likely look to add to him live because he'll be in line to take the fight over.
Pick: Elkins +122, down to +110.
Prelim Pick: Punahele Soriano (-112) vs. Brendan Allen (-104)
Allen is a talented fighter, but he is very reliant on grappling and hunting submission opportunities to win his fights.
While Soriano is only in his ninth professional fight (8-0), I trust his power to overwhelm Allen, who struggled against a rugged striker like Sean Strickland two fights ago.
Allen does have a path to victory by getting this fight to the ground and taking over against ‘Puna’ who hasn’t proven he can deal with a grappler like Allen, but I’ll bet on violence and Soriano finishing this fight in a standup battle. Both of his wins in the UFC have been impressive knockouts.
Pick: Soriano -112, play to -120
Get the BetQL DAY PASS for just $4.99 to see what the BetQL Model likes for tonight's slate!
Parlay: Ian Heinisch (-168)/Sijara Eubanks (-360)
Heinisch is facing Nassourdine Imavov, and while I’m not bullish on Heinisch as a contender at middleweight, he should have Imavov beat in every facet of this scrap.
'Hurricane' mixes in takedowns and pushes an aggressive pace. Not to mention, he has lost to middleweight stalwarts such as Derek Brunson and more recently Kelvin Gastelum. This price is selling short the drop in competition for Heinisch.
I’ll pair Heinisch with Eubanks, who is simply too big for her opponent Elise Reed. Reed is 4-0 in her UFC career, but is moving up to 125. Eubanks should be able to land takedowns and get top control on Reed. I wouldn't lay this number on Eubanks straight, but I'll happily use her as a parlay piece as she should have control of this fight throughout against a green prospect.
This parlay pays +103.
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