NASCAR Odds, Predictions & Best Bets For Enjoy Illinois 300

NASCAR Odds, Predictions & Best Bets For Enjoy Illinois 300

Immediately on the heels of NASCAR's longest race of the season on one of its most storied racecourses, the series heads to an intermediate, flat track for a 300-mile sprint for the second-ever Cup event at WorldWide Technology Raceway (Gateway). 

Before Gateway was added to the schedule, it was easiest to lump Phoenix International Raceway and New Hampshire International Raceway in with the short, flat tracks. There were enough similarities with Richmond Raceway and Martinsville Speedway that we could overlook the size differential and see some commonalities in a driver's record on those four courses. It's difficult to make sweeping statements about a track that has hosted only one race, but Gateway seems to fit well with the two one-mile, minimally-banked courses and with four races now on the combined tracks, the data pool is deep enough to make some predictions. 

Gateway is slightly longer than Phoenix or New Hampshire and the additional quarter-mile of length means there are fewer laps to get the job done. This is a sprint that took just over three hours to complete last year with Joey Logano winning his 29th career race. By comparison, the Coke 600 lasted a little more than five hours. 

Drivers in the Cup series need to be adaptable. 

The closest comparative we have this week is the spring United Rentals 500k at Phoenix. At 312 miles in length, drivers faced the same challenges, so look for a crossover between how they performed on that dusty oval as well as how they ran in last year's Gateway race.

NASCAR Expert Picks For Enjoy Illinois 300

1. Joey Logano ⭐⭐⭐⭐

DraftKings: Outright Win +1100

Consensus Odds*: +1067 | Best Odds: BetRivers +1200

Our biggest complaint about Logano since he drew the No. 1 position in the Atlanta Motor Speedway pack racing lottery is that he tends to experiment when he believes he is locked into the playoffs. That hasn't changed, but his record on the intermediate, flat tracks is good enough to risk the outright win wager, especially with relatively long odds of more than 10/1 on most books. Since 2019, he has finished worse than 11th only once in 14 starts and has three wins plus a second-place finish on this course type.

2. Christopher Bell ⭐⭐⭐⭐

DraftKings: Outright Win +1000

Consensus Odds*: +1050 | Best Odds: MGM, Caesars, BetRivers +1100

Bell has seven top-10s in his last eight attempts on intermediate, flat tracks. Most of those were outside the top five, but what encourages us to place him this high on the chart is his win last fall at New Hampshire. It took him a while to get to the front in that race, but he led the final 42 laps after working on his car most of the afternoon. Since there are 41 fewer laps this week than at New Hampshire last year, he's going to need to roll off the hauler a little quicker this weekend. 

3. Ryan Blaney ⭐⭐⭐

DraftKings: Outright Win +1100

Consensus Odds*: +1025 | Best Odds: BetRivers +1200

With last week's dominant performance, Blaney's consensus odds are about half what they were entering the Coke 600, but at 10/1 or greater on all but one book, (he's +850 at FanDuel), there is enough Return on Investment to encourage a moderate bet. He has not yet won on this track type, but his last two attempts at Phoenix ended in second-place finishes and nine of his last 14 landed in the top five. Coupled with the confidence that winning one of NASCAR's Crown Jewels will give him, another strong run is in the offing. 

4. William Byron ⭐⭐⭐

DraftKings: Outright Win +650

Consensus Odds*: +650 | Best Odds: MGM, BetRivers +700

With three wins to his credit, Byron is the hottest driver on the circuit. One of these came on the flat one-miler of Phoenix and another was scored in the last four weeks at Darlington. In that span, he has a perfect record of top-five finishes on unrestricted ovals. One statistic that gives us pause is that his Phoenix win this spring is his only top-five on an intermediate, flat track, but NASCAR is a sport of momentum and Byron has it at the moment. 

5. Ross Chastain ⭐⭐⭐

DraftKings: Outright Win +1200

Consensus Odds*: +1267 | Best Odds: FanDuel +1400

As he and the Trackhouse Racing team began to improve last year, the intermediate, flat tracks were at the vanguard. Chastain swept the top 10 in four races on this course type with a second- and third-place finish at Phoenix. He was eighth in the inaugural Gateway and at New Hampshire. As such, he was the only driver to sweep the top 10. He did not fare as well at Phoenix this spring and finished only 24th, but one bad race is not enough to seriously impact his handicap.

6. Kyle Larson ⭐⭐⭐⭐

DraftKings: Outright Win +450

Consensus Odds*: +467 | Best Odds: MGM, BetRivers +500

Larson's luck continues to be bad and that is a big part of the reason we have him handicapped outside the top five. Most of his negative results since the road course race at the Circuit of the Americas (COTA) have been due to circumstances he could not control. But the fact remains that he's cost players and bettors significantly in four of the last eight races with 30-something results plus another in the 20s. When he avoids catastrophe he's been great, however, with wins at Richmond and Martinsville – two of the short, flat tracks – and a second at Kansas Speedway.

7. Denny Hamlin ⭐⭐⭐

DraftKings: Outright Win +1000

Consensus Odds*: +1000 | Best Odds: All six books +1000

Reputation goes a long way. It is largely responsible for Hamlin's fourth-best consensus odds, but the fact that he is unchanged from the base line on all six books suggests that traders are not quite certain what to do with him. We can't blame them because while he is still one of the top performers on short, flat tracks, he has lost some of his mojo on the intermediate versions. He had six top-fives in nine starts on these courses from 2019 through the end of 2021 but has not scored another in five races since. 

8. Kevin Harvick ⭐⭐⭐

DraftKings: Outright Win +1200

Consensus Odds*: +1233 | Best Odds: MGM +1400

To say Harvick is a master of the intermediate, flat tracks would be an understatement. Since joining Stewart-Haas Racing (SHR) in 2014, he has won eight times on 1-mile tracks, earned 22 top-fives, and finished outside the top 10 only four times in 33 events. His record with RCR was just as good. There is still only one thing on his mind during his final full season of Cup competition and that focus will either propel him to victory lane or distract him. Predicting a win is a coin flip, but there is no reason to believe he will finish outside the top 10.

9. Chase Briscoe ⭐⭐⭐

DraftKings: Outright Win +3000

Consensus Odds*: +3050 | Best Odds: PointsBet +3300

We say this a lot, but never count out a ticked off driver. Earlier in the week, Briscoe and the SHR team were hit with the maximum penalty allowed from NASCAR after they were caught with a counterfeit part on the NextGen spec car. Briscoe lost his crew chief Johnny Klausmeier for six weeks and was stripped of 125 points, which dropped him out of the top 16. That will only serve to galvanize the team on a track type where Briscoe has three results of seventh or better in his last five starts including a win at Phoenix last spring. 

10. Corey LaJoie ⭐⭐⭐

DraftKings: Outright Win +3500

Consensus Odds*: +3217 | Best Odds: DraftKings, FanDuel, BetRivers +3500

LaJoie has a rare opportunity to showcase his talent in one of the strongest cars in the field and he's going to take advantage. He does not have a realistic shot at winning this week, but at 35/1 it's worth skipping your Saturday venti caramel macchiato and investing that in an outright bet. That $5.25 will return a little less than $160 if he pulls off the upset. His relatively long odds for the outright win drug those for a top-three to 10/1 and a top-five was 4/1 in the middle of the week.

* Consensus odds at the average of six sportsbooks: DraftKings, PointsBet, MGM, Caesars, FanDuel, and BetRivers.