NASCAR Pick Sheet: Ally 400

NASCAR Pick Sheet: Ally 400

NASCAR heads to Nashville Superspeedway for the third time in the Cup Series. In the brief history of this event, drivers have shown a tendency to finish in a narrow band, from Ross Chastain and Kyle Larson, who swept the top five, to Austin Dillon, who had three results from 12th to 14th, to Chase Briscoe with a trio of 30-something results, drivers have shown remarkable consistency.
Nashville is a course that places a significant emphasis on tire management. For those drivers who do not fit in a narrow band, the data pool can be deepened with results from other rough-surfaced tracks like Darlington Raceway, Dover Motor Speedway, and Bristol Motor Speedway. This knowledge of the track and its demands can help bettors make more informed decisions. Strategy is also straightforward, so there should not be a lot of wild pit scenarios. 

That puts a premium on pit crew performance in addition to driver skill, highlighting the team effort that goes into a successful race. Marquee teams dominate the top of the consensus odds chart. Some exceptions include Chastain and the Trackhouse Racing team and surprisingly low odds for Corey Heim (+6720) in a third 23XI entry. 

At 400 miles, this track represents the ‘new NASCAR’ and its strategy of shortening races to accommodate tighter television windows. Another goal of the sanctioning body has been achieved with three winners in three races. Larson won the inaugural race in 2021, Chase Elliott won in 2022, and Chastain was the 2023 victor. There are some solid choices for who may become the fourth winner.

NASCAR Betting Picks For Ally 400

1. Kyle Larson ⭐⭐⭐⭐

DraftKings: Outright Win +400

Consensus Odds*: +445 | Best Odds: FanDuel +500

Before his incident in Darlington this spring, Larson had the longest streak of top-five finishes on rough-surfaced tracks. In addition to his inaugural Nashville victory in 2021, Larson won on “The Track Too Tough to Tame” last year and finished second at Dover and Bristol. In 2021, he was almost perfect on this track type, with two wins and three second-place finishes in five races. He’s this week’s sportsbook traders’ favorite for a good reason. 

2. Denny Hamlin ⭐⭐⭐⭐

DraftKings: Outright Win +550

Consensus Odds*: +560 | Best Odds: BetRivers +600

There has been a ripple effect from Hamlin’s engine problem in Sonoma Raceway three weeks ago. He has struggled in the last two races, with 24th-place finishes at Iowa Speedway and New Hampshire International Raceway, but this should be an excellent weekend to rebound. Before Sonoma, he had a five-race streak of top-fives, including a win on another rough-surfaced track in Dover. That was one of three consecutive wins on this course type.

3. Chase Elliott ⭐⭐⭐

DraftKings: Outright Win +800

Consensus Odds*: +860 | Best Odds: MGM, BetRivers +900

Elliott’s 2021 victory in Nashville was one of two wins that season on rough tracks. He also won in Dover that year and had a fifth-place result at Darlington and a second at Bristol. His results have slipped some in the past two seasons, with only three top-fives in eight races, but he’s been in the hunt until the checkers waved with his worst result of 12th in that span. 

4. Brad Keselowski ⭐⭐⭐

DraftKings: Outright Win +2500

Consensus Odds*: +2400 | Best Odds: DraftKings, MGM, FanDuel, BetRivers +2500

Traders have lost confidence in Keselowski, which suits bettors who like to bet on dark horses. We’re not entirely sure that the No. 6 team is much of a longshot after he broke his 110-race winless streak at Darlington. That provided momentum and top-three results in the next two races. He finished 28th last week in New Hampshire and fell off a lot of radar screens, which is one of the reasons he can be wagered at +700 for a top-three and +320 for a top-five.

5. Ross Chastain ⭐⭐⭐

DraftKings: Outright Win +750

Consensus Odds*: +850 | Best Odds: FanDuel +950

If not for some recent struggles, Chastain would be one of the top three picks this week. Along with Larson, he swept the top five in three Nashville starts, and at 2.66, he has the best average finish on this concrete course. Last year, he finished second at Dover and fifth at Darlington in their summer race. He has a caveat in the form of no rough-surface top-10s in 2024, so wager sparingly.

6. Christopher Bell ⭐⭐⭐

DraftKings: Outright Win +750

Consensus Odds*: +760 | Best Odds: Caesars +850

With the third-lowest consensus odds, it isn't easy to get overly excited about Bell, but a line of 17/2 at Caesars at least provides some wiggle room for the driver, who has won twice in the last five weeks. His recent rough-surface results have been lacking, with a 34th at Dover and 13th at Darlington, but he had 10 top-10s in 14 races preceding those. 

7. Chris Buescher ⭐⭐⭐

DraftKings: Outright Win +2500

Consensus Odds*: +2700 | Best Odds: BetRivers +3500

Buescher is another driver who requires some faith. He finished 17th in Dover and 30th in Darlington, but those results came on the heels of three top-fives and six top-10s in the previous seven rough-surface races. One of these was a win in Bristol. Buescher has not yet finished in the top 15 at Nashville, but that should change this week. At Caesars, his odds of finishing in the top 10 are -110.

8. Martin Truex Jr. ⭐⭐⭐

DraftKings: Outright Win +750

Consensus Odds*: +740 | Best Odds: DraftKings, MGM, FanDuel, BetRivers +750

Television commentators are practically sure Truex will win in his final season of full-time Cup competition. We are slightly less certain, but he can be expected to run well in several races between now and the Phoenix finale. Rough-surfaced tracks have been kind in the past, with a win at Dover last year, second-place finishes at Nashville and Bristol in his most recent six starts on this course type, and a third at Dover this spring. 

9. Ty Gibbs ⭐⭐⭐

DraftKings: Outright Win +2500

Consensus Odds*: +2140 | Best Odds: DraftKings +2500

It took six races for Gibbs to get comfortable on rough tracks. An average finish of 19th in that span made his fifth-place result at Bristol last fall surprising, and back-to-back top-10s on this course type in the next two races caused him to fall off the radar as a potential winner. That assumption was tested at Darlington this spring when he finished second to Keselowski. 

10. Erik Jones ⭐⭐⭐

DraftKings: Outright Win +20000

Consensus Odds*: +23600 | Best Odds: FanDuel +28000

Rough-surfaced tracks have been incredibly kind to Jones. Two of his three career wins came at Darlington, including one with his current team in 2022. We’re not suggesting he will win, although with odds of 280/1, it’s certainly worth the risk of a modest wager (a five-dollar bet would net a $1,400 return), but that long outright line drags his top-10 odds to +350 and he is more than capable of covering that. 

* Consensus odds are the average of five sportsbooks: DraftKings, MGM, Caesars, FanDuel, and BetRivers