NASCAR Odds, Predictions & Best Bets

NASCAR Odds, Predictions & Best Bets For The NASCAR Cup Series Championship at Phoenix

In the history of NASCAR’s knockout-style playoff, a driver contending for the Cup has won every finale – whether it was held at Homestead-Miami Speedway or Phoenix International Raceway. That trend is reflected heavily in this week’s betting odds as Kyle Larson, Ryan Blaney, William Byron and Christopher Bell, the Championship 4, show a consensus average of about one-third the odds of the best remaining driver. 

From slightly under 2/1 for Larson to +425 for Bell, there is not a lot of juice to squeeze from these drivers but it’s unlikely the trend is going to change and the winning bet will have a modest return. But that’s what makes betting on auto racing so interesting: Simply because it has not yet been done doesn't mean that it can’t be done.

The average consensus line for the Championship 4 is +303. The next five drivers, Kevin Harvick, Denny Hamlin, Joey Logano, Tyler Reddick and Martin Truex Jr., have an average consensus line of +1942 with odds as high as 30/1 for Truex. There is undoubtedly a risk in taking anyone other than a championship contender, but the reward is there. 

Every driver in the field would love to be the one who puts his name in the record books as the first non-contender to win a finale and that is especially true for a couple of drivers who are highly motivated to end the season on a high note. Harvick has one final chance to win before retirement and Chase Elliott wants to extend his streak of winning at least one race per year.

BetMGM Sportsbook Insights: NASCAR Cup Series Championship Race

 Line Movement (Open to Current)

• Kyle Larson +160, +175
• Ryan Blaney +250, +275
• William Byron +300, +325
• Christopher Bell +400, +450
• Kevin Harvick +1400, +1200

 Highest Ticket%

• Kevin Harvick 12.1%
• Ryan Blaney 10.9%
• William Byron 7.4%

 Highest Handle%

• Kevin Harvick 26.2%
• Ryan Blaney 11.8%
• William Byron 11.2%

 Biggest Liabilities

• Kevin Harvick
• Corey Lajoie
• Austin Cindric

NASCAR Expert Picks For The NASCAR Cup Series Championship at Phoenix

1. Ryan Blaney ⭐⭐⭐⭐

DraftKings: Outright Win +300

Consensus Odds*: +273 | Best Odds: DraftKings +300

We didn’t exactly sleep on Blaney last week but then again, he wasn’t our favorite. Ranked fifth, we actually elevated Blaney a little more than his Martinsville Speedway record suggested was appropriate based on the intangible of his need for a strong run. Phoenix has a lot of similarities to Martinsville and that means Blaney has a better set of recent notes than anyone in the field. Across the sportsbooks we track, he is consistently second to Larson with the exception of BetRivers where both are co-favored at +250. 

2. Kyle Larson ⭐⭐⭐⭐

DraftKings: Outright Win +180

Consensus Odds*: +191 | Best Odds: BetRivers +250

BetRivers is the most conservative sportsbook this year with two notable exceptions: As of Thursday morning, they had the most lucrative odds for Larson at +250 and Harvick at +1400 and it’s worth a trip over there for that little bit of extra juice. No one seriously doubts the validity of Larson as the favorite, but NASCAR tends to toss surprises at bettors and fantasy players. He won this race and the championship in 2021 but had a lot more momentum on his side then with three victories in the previous four races. That Phoenix victory is his only win on this track in 24 starts but he did finish in the top five this spring with a fourth. 

3. Christopher Bell ⭐⭐⭐

DraftKings: Outright Win +500

Consensus Odds*: +425 | Best Odds: DraftKings +500

Last week we had Bell ranked sixth on the Pick Sheet. He finished seventh. There are reasons he should perform better this week. After teammates Hamlin and Truex were eliminated from contention, the lion’s share of the resources at Joe Gibbs Racing (JGR) will go to this team and the best pit crew members will be concentrating on his effort. Given the struggles of this organization all season, that might not be enough and it will take only the slightest error on the final stop to put him behind the favorites. 

4. William Byron ⭐⭐⭐

DraftKings: Outright Win +380

Consensus Odds*: +321 | Best Odds: DraftKings +380

We chose not to rank Byron last week and that proved to be the right decision. He struggled throughout the entire weekend before ultimately losing a lap and finishing 13th. A top-15 was generous and it came after well-placed cautions and enough attrition to move Byron up the order. Byron is more highly regarded than Bell this week by the traders, but all of that enthusiasm comes because he is the spring winner on this track. That victory is his only Phoenix top-five, however, and shouldn’t move the needle as much as it does. 

5. Kevin Harvick ⭐⭐⭐

DraftKings: Outright Win +1100

Consensus Odds*: +1260 | Best Odds: BetRivers +1400

We are tempted to make Harvick this week’s outright favorite. Instead, we will call him the best overall value and point out that his odds are long enough to risk a modest bet for the outright win and a slightly more aggressive one at +300 to finish in the top three on the DraftKings Sportsbook. In fact, the bold gambler might even want to risk some money at -250 for a top-10 finish because there is a strong likelihood that Harvick will extend his streak of those finishes to 21 straight. Last fall he passed Richard Petty and Dale Earnhardt, Sr. for the most consecutive top-10s on a track, (with 19) and added a 20th such finish this spring in fifth.

6. Denny Hamlin ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

DraftKings: Outright Win +1700

Consensus Odds*: +1750 | Best Odds: Caesars +2200

Ranked second for Martinsville on last week’s Pick Sheet, Hamlin finished third. We said then and it remains true that he is one of the best short, flat track racers in the field. He ain’t too shabby on the intermediate, flat tracks either and Phoenix has long been one of his best venues. By the numbers, he should be head-to-head with Harvick. The niggling doubt about Hamlin’s odds to beat the Championship 4 and the Happy driver of the No. 4 comes because of the pit crew problems that have plagued JGR all season. We are also dissuaded by Hamlin’s recent record on this track. He has not had a Phoenix top-five in his last three starts. 

7. Chase Elliott ⭐⭐⭐

DraftKings: Outright Win +3500

Consensus Odds*: +3600 | Best Odds: MGM +5000

We don’t believe there is even the slightest chance that Elliott will win this week, but his recent struggles have contributed to incredibly long odds. His 35/1 for the outright win at DraftKings dragged his top-10 number to +125 and this driver is too good not to at least contend for that. We suspect he knows 2023 is a write-off and that should make him relaxed behind the wheel. He gambled last week and it didn’t pay off so he’s likely to be more conservative at Phoenix and settle for a strong finish. 

8. Kyle Busch ⭐⭐⭐

DraftKings: Outright Win +5000

Consensus Odds*: +4700 | Best Odds: Caesars+6000

It hasn’t been a perfect season but during the winter the Richard Childress Racing (RCR) organization will be well pleased with how Busch has performed. He’s been erratic at times, but overall the No. 8 is showing signs of improvement and one of their early successes came with an eighth-place finish in the spring Phoenix race. That was his fourth consecutive top-10 on this track and the 14th time he’s finished that well in his last 17 Phoenix attempts. He is also one of only two drivers, along with Harvick, with a better than 0.500 average of top-fives since the start of 2015.

9. Chase Briscoe ⭐⭐⭐

DraftKings: Outright Win +5000

Consensus Odds*: +4060 | Best Odds: Caesars +5500

Briscoe was one of our dark horses last week and he didn’t disappoint with a fourth-place finish on the short, flat track. He’s got a strong record at Phoenix as well and secured his spot in the 2022 playoffs after winning there in the spring. He backed that up with a fourth in the fall and continued run strong with a seventh this spring. Even if he slips a little, he should cover his +175 odds to finish in the top 10. Don’t bet heavily, but he is worth skipping this weekend’s latte to place a modest bet. 

10. Martin Truex, Jr. ⭐⭐⭐

DraftKings: Outright Win +3000

Consensus Odds*: +2620 | Best Odds: DraftKings, MGM +3000

It’s time for Truex to carry the team to one last top-10 finish. He’s overdue; a ninth at Las Vegas Motor Speedway three weeks ago is his only success in the last 10 races as everything began unraveling as soon as the playoffs began. The driver who was so strong in the middle of the regular season until its end hung on precariously to championship hopes through two rounds on the strength of bonus points from three regular season wins. The pressure is off his and the team’s shoulders and that should make a difference at Phoenix where he won in spring 2021 and finished second later that same year.

* Consensus odds at the average of six sportsbooks: DraftKings, PointsBet, MGM, Caesars, FanDuel, and BetRivers.